We’re in the final quarter of the regular season, which leaves us with a monster 13-game main slate on DraftKings. No byes this week, so the only teams off the slate will be the primetime games — Cowboys at Bears (TNF), Seahawks at Rams (SNF) and Giants at Eagles (MNF).
It’s crucial to have all the latest lineup and injury news when constructing your lineups. Make sure you’re following @DKLive for every update, and also feel free to hit me up on Twitter with any comments or questions — @JulianEdlow.
All lines and odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lamar Jackson, BAL at BUF ($7,400)
This is probably a slate to target QBs priced in the mid-range, around $6,000-$6,800. At Buffalo isn’t the ideal spot to target a QB, but Jackson’s just been so dangerous in any situation, it’s impossible to say you need to fade him. He’s going to get you 10-plus DKFP with his legs, which is a great base.
Patrick Mahomes, KC at NE ($7,000)
Mahomes, on the other hand, is a QB I am comfortable looking past. We did just see Deshaun Watson go for 29 DKFP against the Patriots, but that was indoors at home. Mahomes will have to brave the elements in New England, against a defense that’s still allowing the fewest DKFP to QB. If we look past a Week 10 outburst from Mahomes, he hasn’t scored more than 21 DKFP since back in Week 3. This isn’t the spot to pay all the way up for him. I’ll take Jackson, or pay down.
Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. MIA ($6,000)
Prior to being a bust in Cincy last week, Darnold was working with three straight games of 20-plus DKFP. He was averaging 26 DKFP during that span, and now get a home matchup against Miami — which ranks just 29th in DKFP allowed to QB. Even with the Dolphins surprisingly winning some games, they’ve still been getting shredded through the air.
Other value options: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,000), Drew Brees ($5,900), Derek Carr ($5,000)
Christian McCaffrey, CAR at ATL ($10,300)
CMC finally put up a “bad” week, scoring just 17 DKFP against a Washington defense that’s been gashed by the run this season. It’s just the second time this season CMC’s failed to reach 20 DKFP, and the other one was in Week 2 on TNF, so he didn’t bust on a main slate. Now we get a slight drop in salary for Week 14, which we’ll all gladly take in cash games.
Alvin Kamara, NO vs. SF ($7,000)
Kamara has a difficult matchup at home against the 49ers’ defense, but we can’t ignore a $1,100 salary dip. Kamara’s a lock for double-digit carries, and he has been targeted eight or more times in all four games since returning from injury. If he can haul in the majority of those targets, and finally reach the end zone for the first time since Week 3, Kamara’s still in position for a huge game.
Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. CAR ($5,400)
Freeman returned in Week 13 to rack up 21 touches against the Saints. While he only managed 64 combined yards, he’s in a much better spot in Week 14. Freeman will have 10 days off to get fresh for a matchup against the Panthers, who actually allow the most DKFP to the RB position.
Other value options: Melvin Gordon ($6,400), James White ($5,500), Duke Johnson ($3,900)
Michael Thomas, NO vs. SF ($8,300)
Do the 49ers have a top tier defense? Yes, but the discounts we’re getting on Saints players at home are too much. This game still has shootout potential, a Thomas shouldn’t have any problem racking up his usual numbers. The matchup, combined with his worst game of the season on Thanksgiving, means an $800 discount. MT is a cash-game lock.
Mike Evans, TB vs. IND ($7,200)
Evans has been a boom-or-bust play all season. He’s been held between 9-12.2 DKFP in each of his last four games, but he has three games of 39-plus DKFP this season. Indy ranks just 26th in DKFP allowed to WR this season and should have some trouble in this road matchup.
Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. MIA ($5,100)
Anderson is the perfect cheap option to stack with Darnold against Miami. The Dolphins can get burned by the deep ball, and Anderson’s been hauling them in recently. Anderson’s caught 11-of-15 targets for 187 yards and a touchdown over his last two games, averaging almost 20 DKFP. The Dolphins rank just 28th against WR.
Other value options: Curtis Samuel ($4,900), Mike Williams ($4,500), Auden Tate ($4,000), Kenny Stills ($3,700)
George Kittle, SF at NO ($5,900)
The Saints rank middle of the pack against TE this season, and Kittle’s salary is down $1,100 since getting injured in Week 9. Although he had a poor game in Baltimore, the conditions were terrible. Kittle proved his health in Week 12, going for 6-129-1 (27.9 DKFP) against the Packers.
Jack Doyle, IND at TB ($4,600)
Eric Ebron has been shut down for the season, and Indy is banged up at WR. Doyle was targeted 11 times last week against the Titans, posting a 6-73-1 line for 19.3 DKFP. Tampa has been the second-worst team in terms of DKFP allowed to TE this season.
Other value options: Jared Cook ($4,200), Ryan Griffin ($4,100)
Packers D/ST vs. WAS ($4,000)
Washington’s stringing together some decent games, but it’s difficult to imagine that translating to Green Bay in Week 14. The Packers D/ST scored 10 DKFP on the road last week against a rookie QB, and have even higher upside at home.
Bengals D/ST at CLE ($2,100)
The Bengals D/ST has been putting up points lately — 27 total DKFP in the last three weeks. It remains affordable for Week 14 against a Browns offense that hasn’t lived up to the hype. The Colts ($2,400) and Redskins ($1,700) should also be in consideration in what looks to be a good week for value at D/ST.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.