Nick Chubb

It’s amazing to think that the regular season is starting to wind down as we look toward Week 14! This is going to be a VERY interesting slate as almost every high-priced running back is in a VERY good matchup, making roster construction very tough to figure out. Let’s get into all the information for this week and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

KC vs. NE (-3) – 48.5 points

The Chiefs enter Week 14 with a 7-5 record against the spread and 1-1 as underdogs. The Patriots are 7-5 ATS and as favorites. When it comes to the over/under, the Chiefs are 7-5 while the Patriots sit at 4-8.

Even in a game in which Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) threw for just 175 yards, he still managed 19.5 DKFP in the 40-9 win over the Raiders. While his running backs are a bit banged up, as Damien and Darrel Williams are both dealing with injuries, he has his full group of receivers to rely on. They draw a tough matchup against the Patriots’ secondary but we just saw Deshaun Watson ($6,500) throw for 234 yards and three touchdowns against them. CB Stephon Gilmore allowed all four targets to DeAndre Hopkins to be caught for 47 yards last week and now will deal with Tyreek Hill ($8,000) on Sunday. Travis Kelce ($6,200) sees his lowest salary of the season and will see S Patrick Chung in coverage, who is allowing a 76% reception rate and 9.4 YPR. While the Chiefs are a dicey team to rely upon against a very good Patriots defense, it’s not out of the question to use some of these names in tournaments.

The Patriots hole at receiver continues to be a glaring weakness. The Chiefs’ secondary has quietly put together a solid season, allowing an average of 26.5 DKFP and 123 receiving yards, both of which are ranked within the three lowest totals in the league. You can run on this Chiefs defense, as the 32.6 DKFP average is the highest in the league. The Pats backfield continues to be tough to figure out, as not many would have tabbed James White ($5,500) for 14 carries and 11 targets last week. Sony Michel ($5,600) is averaging decent yards per carry, but from a fantasy perspective, he’s been a legitimate non-factor for the past five weeks. While I think this game is certainly one you want to have exposure to, no one really stands out as an obvious or must-play despite the total.

Lowest Scoring Game

CIN vs. CLE (-8.5) – 40.5 points

The Bengals are 5-7 against the spread and 5-5 as underdogs. The Browns are 4-7-1 against the spread while 3-4-1 as favorites. Neither team is particularly strong at hitting the over, with the Bengals at a league-worst 3-9 and the Browns with a 5-7 record.

Andy Dalton ($5,200) came off the bench for the first time since Week 8, and not only gave the Bengals a much-needed spark but also team’s elusive first win of the season. Dalton completed 59% of his 37 pass attempts for 243 yards and a touchdown. Now he draws a middle of the road Browns’ defense on the road. Stacking Dalton with someone like Tyler Boyd ($5,900) or Auden Tate ($4,000) is extremely inexpensive and helps fit some of the bigger names in your lineup. Is this a stack I’m actively looking to take? Not necessarily, but it’s certainly an option if you’re strapped for salary. While the Browns’ secondary has flashed some good games, they’ve given up an average of 151 receiving yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks to the Steelers and Dolphins.

This sets up as a fantastic week for Nick Chubb ($8,000), who draws a very poor Bengals run defense and a large spread for the Browns at -8.5. The Bengals have seen running backs go over 100 rushing yards in seven of their 12 games while giving up an average of 27.6 DKFP and nine rushing touchdowns. Kareem Hunt ($6,600) has yet to top eight carries in a game, but he’s still very active in the passing game, averaging 6.2 targets a game. While the Browns may not need to use him much in this game, the Bengals do allow an average of 45 receiving yards per game. Overall, this game is fairly unattractive from a fantasy perspective aside from the Browns running game and possibly DS/T ($3,600).

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, 1st
New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, 3rd QB, OPP, DvP Rank

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, 1st
New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3rd

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, 32nd
Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, 31st,
Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, 30th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, 1st
New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, 2nd
New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, 3rd

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 32nd
Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, 30th
Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, 28th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, 1st
New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, 4th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, 30th
Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 29th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Christian McCaffrey, CAR, WAS, 13
D.J. Moore, CAR, WAS, 12
Julian Edelman, NE, HOU, 12
Mike Evans, TB, JAX, 11
Jarvis Landry, CLE, PIT, 11
Jack Doyle, IND, TEN, 11
James White, NE, HOU, 11
Leonard Fournette, JAX, TB, 11
Robby Anderson, NYJ, CIN, 10
Zach Pascal, IND, TEN, 10

Last Three Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Christian McCaffrey, CAR, 37, 8
D.J. Moore, CAR, 36, 9.6
Julian Edelman, NE, 34, 10.3
Calvin Ridley, ATL, 32, 9
Jarvis Landry, CLE, 31, 9
DeVante Parker, MIA, 31, 7.8
Leonard Fournette, JAX, 30, 6.8
Michael Thomas, NO, 29, 11
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, 28, 10
Mike Evans, TB, 27, 9.7

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) – Rodgers carves up bad secondaries. I mean, you’d hope he would but it’s been confirmed. After three weeks of tough matchups, Rodgers threw for 243 yards, four touchdowns and 28.1 DKFP against the Giants. Against other really bad secondaries, Rodgers has thrown over 400 yards against the Eagles and Lions. Now he faces a Redskins team that’s allowed an average of 22.7 DKFP and 248 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. With the constant attention that Lamar Jackson ($7,400) and Mahomes draws, Rodgers can go overlooked in a great matchup.

WR To Pair Him With…

Davante Adams ($8,000) – Adams was quiet from a yardage perspective against the Giants but found the end zone twice, giving him 24.4 DKFP in the process. Adams has seen at least 10 targets in five straight games, a span he’s averaging 11.6 in. Now he’ll face the Redskins and specifically see coverage from CB Quinton Dunbar, who is allowing a 55.8 catch% with an average of 12 YPR and two touchdowns allowed. With the amount of volume Adams gets, he’s a must when pairing with Rodgers.

The Top RB Will Be…

Nick Chubb ($8,000) – We have a lot of REALLY good matchups for the top-priced running backs on this slate. As I mentioned earlier, I really like Chubb in this game against the Bengals. With the Browns favored (-8.5), we should have ample opportunities to see Chubb carry the ball against a team that has really struggled against the run. In games where the Browns have won by multiple scores, Chubb is averaging 25 DKFP and at least 18 carries in three of the four games. He should be worth every penny in this fantastic matchup.

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