Matt Ryan, Julio Jones

Only four teams are on a bye in Week 12, but we’re missing a number of big names on this main slate. Nonetheless, we still have plenty of news, stats and information to get ahead of this 11-game slate.

Game Notes

Highest Projected Total

TB vs. ATL (-4.5) – 51.5 points

The Buccaneers enter this game with a league-worst 2-8 record against the spread and a league-best 8-2 record with the over/under. As for the Falcons, they’re 4-6 ATS and boast a 3-7 record on the O/U.

Jameis Winston ($6,200) comes into this week listed as questionable as he suffered a left ankle sprain in Week 11. While expected to play, it’s certainly worth monitoring during the week. If active, he faces a suddenly defensive-minded Falcons team that’s allowed a combined 12 points to the Saints and Panthers over the past two weeks. It doesn’t make you feel great about Winston, who has six interceptions over the past two weeks and 18 overall on the year. Choosing between Mike Evans ($7,300) and Chris Godwin ($7,200) continues to be nearly impossible as they’ve both been rather quiet as of late. Evans has the best matchup of the receivers against Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed an average of 13.1 YPR, 276 YAC (most in the league) and three touchdowns against him. Before we get all excited about this matchup, let us make sure who is under center first — although I can’t imagine it gets much worse than Winston.

The Falcons’ defensive resurgence has also seen them throw up 55 points during that two-week span, with Matt Ryan ($6,700) throwing for three touchdowns and an average of 246 yards against the Saints and Panthers. They do remain banged up, as Devonta Freeman ($5,100) is questionable and Austin Hooper remains out. Calvin Ridley ($6,500) was the man to step up in Week 11, catching all eight of his targets for 143 yards and a touchdown for 31.3 DKFP. He’ll draw Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage, who is allowing 10.8 YPR and four touchdowns scored, three of which have come in the past three games. The Falcons receivers are my preferred option to attack in this game as even if Freeman is active, he will have a tough game against arguably one of the best run defenses in the league.

Lowest Projected Total

DEN vs. BUF (-4) – 37.5 points

The Broncos are 6-4 against the spread and 4-6 with the over/under. The Bills come into this game with a 6-3-1 record ATS and 3-7 with the O/U.

The Brandon Allen ($4,600) era moves to its third week with the Broncos having gone 1-1. Allen is facing a very stiff Bills defense that has been amongst the best against opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of just 13.3 DKFP, which is ironically tied with the Bills. There isn’t a ton of plays I’m crazy about in this game, with the exception of Phillip Lindsay ($5,200). Despite it being reported that he’d take a larger share of the backfield carries last week, he only had 16, which is essentially where he’s been at the majority of the season. Lindsay will face a Bills defense that’s allowing an average of 25.7 DKFP and 93.8 rushing yards per game.

I’m not really crazy about anyone on the Bills and will likely be ignoring them overall. I wouldn’t be surprised to see people chase points with the performance John Brown ($6,700) produced last week, but this week brings a much tougher matchup. The Broncos’ secondary has allowed an average of just 27.7 DKFP, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. With this total as low as it is, you can easily move on.

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, 1st
Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, 3rd
Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, 4th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions, 29th
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, 28th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, 1st
Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3rd
Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, 4th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions, 31st
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, 28th
New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, 27th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, 1st
New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, 2nd
New York Giants, Chicago Bears, 3rd

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 32nd
Chicago Bears, New York Giants, 31st
Oakland Raiders, New York Jets, 29th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, 1st
New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, 3rd
Oakland Raiders, New York Jets, 5th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, 28th
Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, 26th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
D.J. Moore, CAR, ATL, 15
John Brown, BUF, MIA, 14
Taylor Gabriel, CHI, LAR, 14
Cameron Brate, TB, NO, 14
Christian McCaffrey, CAR, ATL, 14
Michael Gallup, DAL, DET, 13
Zach Ertz, PHI, NE, 11
Michael Thomas, NO, TB, 11
Anthony Miller, CHI, LAR, 11
Noah Fant, DEN, MIN, 11

Last Three Weeks’ Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
D.J. Moore, CAR, 36, 9.4
John Brown, BUF, 32, 8.5
Mike Evans, TB, 30, 9.7
Jarvis Landry, CLE, 30, 8.4
Michael Gallup, DAL, 29, 9.8
Amari Cooper, DAL, 29, 7.9
Odell Beckham, CLE, 28, 8.9
Chris Godwin, TB, 27, 9
Jaylen Samuels, PIT, 26, 5.1
DeVante Parker, MIA, 26, 7.2

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around …

Matt Ryan ($6,700) — This is a really weak group of quarterbacks playing on the main Week 12 slate. We’re missing names like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson just to name a few. Talking about this game earlier in the article, it’s hard not to like Ryan with such a limited group to choose from. I expect his ownership to be quite high, making him an interesting GPP fade but someone you need to almost lock in to cash. We’ve seen Ryan throw for over 300 yards in all but two of his games this season, averaging out to 295 per game. The Bucs are allowing an average of 26 DKFP, 303 passing yards and 7.5 YPA to opposing quarterbacks.

WR To Pair Him With …

Julio Jones ($8,000) — I don’t think you can go wrong with pairing Ryan with either Ridley or Jones but I’ll talk up Jones here. I love his matchup in coverage against CB Carlton Davis, who has only allowed a 48% catch rate on his 54 targets but has been scored on four times, including three in Week 8 against the Titans. His good numbers mostly stem from a very good start to the season, as he’s allowed nine catches on 17 targets over the past three weeks he’s played. Even though it’s been a struggle to get Jones in the end zone as of late, he’s still averaging a massive 19 YPR over his last three games.

The Top RB Will Be …

Nick Chubb ($8,100) — Let’s just watch Chubb run all over this Dolphins team and admire it. They’ve allowed seven teams to rush for over 100 yards and three of them to go over 150. With the Browns as -10.5 favorites, Chubb should get plenty of work in this game, making him someone you simply can’t fade in cash games. I think a lot of people will look toward Alvin Kamara ($8,200) against the Panthers but my only concern is that we haven’t seen him go more than 75 rushing yards more than once. He’s been more of a receiving threat rather than a rushing. Chubb should continue to dominate in carries and put up some numbers against a defense that’s allowing an average of 4.6 YPC.

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