Dak Prescott,Amari Cooper

Week 10 was wild from a betting perspective with a number of underdogs pulling out the outright win. From a DFS perspective, the mid-tier running backs were quite a disappointment, which hurt lineups across the board. Week 11 has a lot to like on this slate and already is turning out to be one of my favorites so far this season. Let’s get into all the information and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Projected Total

ATL vs. CAR (-5.5) – 50.5 points

The Falcons enter this game with a 3-6 record against the spread and hitting the over. The Panthers are 5-4 against the spread and 6-3 with the over.

The Panthers are favored for the fifth time this season and are 3-1 ATS in this scenario. The Falcons have been a generous defense that has allowed an average of 23.7 DKFP to opposing quarterbacks, 23.4 to running backs, 41.9 to wide receivers and 12.1 to tight ends. It feels as if almost everyone is in play for the Panthers, and it’s hard to find a matchup you dislike. Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) is going to be hard to fit in, but his floor is one of the safest in the league, especially against a Falcons team that’s allowed more than 100 rushing yards four times this season. The Falcons’ 10.1 yards per target to opposing receivers is the second highest in the league, and they have allowed more than 150 receiving yards to WRs in all but one game this season. D.J. Moore ($5,900) continues to be one of the more undervalued receivers on a week-to-week basis and is 12th in the league in YAC with 228. CB Isaiah Oliver, who primarily should be covering Moore, has allowed the second most YAC in the league at 271. Moore should be a cash-game lock in Week 11.

One of the bigger stories for the Falcons heading into this week will be the loss of Devonta Freeman, who is dealing with a multi-week foot injury. With Ito Smith recently going on IR, that leaves Brian Hill ($4,800) as the lead back, and he received a full workload in Week 10 with 20 carries for 61 yards against the Saints. Now he has a much softer matchup against a Panthers run defense that’s allowed an average of 29.6 DKFP and 111 rushing yards with a league-leading 14 rushing touchdowns allowed. Hill should be a popular cash play even with his $900 increase in salary. The Falcons also should be able to get some production through the air as this secondary has been demolished for 418 yards over the past two weeks. Julio Jones ($7,500) and Calvin Ridley ($5,500) are very much in play.

Lowest Projected Total

NYJ vs. WAS (-1) – 38 points

The Jets are 3-6 against the spread and 5-4 with hitting the over on their game totals. The Redskins have been poor in both facets, posting a 3-6 record against the spread and hitting the over.

This is one of three (!) games with a total in the 30s along with the Bills at Miami and Vikings and Broncos. The Redskins are favored for only the second time this season (0-1 record ATS). While this feels like an ugly game overall, we do have some plays to consider, mainly Terry McLaurin ($5,600). He’s been quiet lately but did draw three tough secondaries in the Bills, Vikings and 49ers. Prior to that stretch, he was averaging 19.9 DKFP in five games in much softer matchups. The Jets’ secondary has been torched as of late, allowing more than 200 yards to WRs in two of their past three games with 10 touchdowns scored. McLaurin will draw Arthur Maulet in coverage, who was signed off the practice squad and has allowed four receptions on six targets for 35 yards.

On the Jets’ side, the Redskins are a team you can run against, paving the way for another game to consider Le’Veon Bell ($7,200). After a heart-to-heart with coach Adam Gase, Bell has logged 35 carries for 100 yards and 12 catches on 13 targets for another 89 yards the past two weeks. Averaging 18.4 DKFP in that span, Bell should be able to feast on a Redskins run defense that’s allowing an average of 27.5 DKFP, 111 rushing yards and 48.5 receiving yards. Sam Darnold ($5,700) is still cheap as well, and if the Redskins can keep this game close by continuing to attack the Jets’ secondary, Darnold could be an interesting GPP consideration after logging 21.7 DKFP in Week 10.

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, 3rd
Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, 4th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2nd
Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, 3rd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, 4th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, 31st
Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, 30th
Oakland Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, 28th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, 2nd
Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, 3rd
Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, 4th

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 32nd
Washington Redskins, New York Jets, 31st
Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, 29th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, 1st
Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Washington Redskins, New York Jets, 4th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, 30th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Michael Thomas, NO, ATL, 14
Amari Cooper, DAL, MIN, 14
Chris Godwin, TB, ARI, 12
Eric Ebron, DET, MIA, 12
John Brown, BUF, CLE, 11
DJ Moore, CAR, GB, 11
Deebo Samuel, SF, SEA, 11
Christian Kirk, ARI, TB, 10
Michael Gallup, DAL, MIN, 10
Alvin Kamara, NO, ATL, 10

Last Three Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Mike Evans, TB, 34, 10
DJ Moore, CAR, 30, 8.8
Chris Godwin, TB, 29, 9.3
John Brown, BUF, 27, 7.9
Christian Kirk, ARI, 26, 9
Curtis Samuel, CAR, 25, 7.6
Michael Thomas, NO, 25, 11.4
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, 24, 10.2
DeVante Parker, MIA, 24, 6.9
Kenny Golladay, DET, 24, 7.9

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Dak Prescott ($6,700) – When we consider quarterbacks to play on a week-to-week basis, I feel like Prescott doesn’t get talked about enough. This is someone who is averaging 24.3 DKFP, 308 passing yards and 8.7 YPA, which is the second-highest average in the league. Now he faces a Lions defense that allowed an average of 261 passing yards with nine touchdowns to the Giants, Raiders and Bears. Having Matt Stafford ($6,000) in this game would make this game more competitive, but Jeff Driskel ($4,100) threw for 269 yards against the Bears. In the four games where the Cowboys have won by two scores or more, Prescott averaged 25.9 DKFP.

WR To Pair Him With…

Amari Cooper ($7,700) – Cooper shredded the Vikings’ secondary in Week 10, catching 11 of his 13 targets for 147 yards and a touchdown. So I can’t be afraid of his matchup against the Lions and, more specifically, CB Darius Slay. While Slay has allowed only 16 receptions on 28 targets, they have gone for an average of 15.6 yards. Cooper is third in the league in receiving yards, behind only Michael Thomas and Mike Evans. I have no doubt he should be able to perform in this matchup and should be a great pairing with Prescott. Overall against opposing receivers, the Lions are allowing an average of 169 yards.

The Top RB Will Be…

Josh Jacobs ($6,900) – We have some of the big names to pay up for on this slate. McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) and Dalvin Cook ($8,900) are all in the mix. However, I think Jacobs is in such a great spot against the Bengals’ run defense, which has been amongst the worst in the league. With the Raiders likely sporting a comfortable lead in this game, Jacobs should rack up plenty of carries, which he’s averaging 18 per game. Opposing backs are averaging more than 115 yards per game against this team, which sounds quite appealing when you consider Jacobs is logging just over 90 per game. You just can’t beat the price tag in a strong matchup for the rookie back.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.