Aaron Jones

Week 9 is a rather interesting week as we have a lot of big names off the slate. Nonetheless, we have a 10-game slate to go through with betting angles, DFS plays and some of my thoughts. Let’s get into it and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

TB vs. SEA (-7) – 53 points
The Buccaneers enter this game with a 2-5 record against the spread and 5-2 record on hitting the over, which is in a three-way tie for the best in the league. The Seahawks are 3-5 ATS and 4-4 on hitting the over.

The Seahawks are big favorites in this game not only with a -7 spread but a -305 moneyline as of Tuesday morning on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Russell Wilson ($7,100) is the most expensive quarterback on this slate despite posting back-to-back mediocre starts. Against the Ravens and Falcons, Wilson combined for 423 yards, three touchdowns and a 55% completion rate. Now he faces one of the most generous defenses to opposing quarterbacks in the Bucs. Don’t let the last two weeks numbers fool you, they give up a TON of fantasy points. If we take out the game against the Panthers and Titans, the Bucs have allowed an average of 25.3 DKFP and 336 passing yards. The secondary is almost nonexistent, allowing an average 43.3 DKFP and 184 receiving yards, both of which are amongst the highest in the league. I would absolutely by targeting Wilson and pairing him with either DK Metcalf ($5,700) or Tyler Lockett ($7,500). To be honest, I don’t hate stacking the three of them and then running it back with either Mike Evans ($7,200) or Chris Godwin ($7,300).

The Bucs are in a good spot as well but it’s hard to trust Jameis Winston ($6,100) to not turn over the ball. Winston has thrown seven picks over the last two games and currently has 12 on the year. If you’ve watched him recently, I’m not positive he isn’t the only quarterback who isn’t “seeing ghosts” because I don’t know what on Earth he sees before he throws the ball lately. It’s truly frustrating because guys like Evans and Godwin are extremely talented and have good matchups in terms of coverage. This Seahawks secondary just got ripped for 303 yards against a Falcons team with backup Matt Schaub at the helm. After Evans’ performance last week, expect his popularity will be sky high but I personally prefer Godwin against CB Jamar Taylor, who has allowed an average of 11.7 YPR in slot coverage.

Lowest Scoring Game

WAS vs. BUF (-9.5) – 37 points
The Redskins are 3-5 against the spread and hitting the over. The Bills have a 4-3 record against the spread and a very poor 2-5 record on the over.

The game originally opened with the Bills as 10.5 favorites but has quickly come down to 9.5. As a home favorite, the Bills are 0-3 ATS, which the majority of the early money has been placed on the Redskins. With that in mind, from a DFS perspective, it’s a great spot for the Bills, especially on the ground. The Redskins are allowing an average of 28 DKFP, 112 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards. We’ve seen quarterbacks run on this team as well, as the 136 rushing yards is the sixth-most in the league. This makes Josh Allen ($6,500) in play but he is a tad bit expensive for my taste in this matchup.

The only play I’m interested in on the Redskins side is Terry McLaurin ($6,200), who has been targeted against 50 times, allowing 30 receptions for 353 yards and two touchdowns.

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, 3rd
Washington Redskins, Buffalo Bills, 4th
Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, 6th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, 27th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, 26th
Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, 25th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2nd
Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, 5th
Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, 6th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, 32nd
Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, 30th
Buffalo Bills, Washington Redskins, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, Buffalo Bills, 3rd
Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, 4th
Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, 6th

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, 32nd
Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, 27th
Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 26th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, Buffalo Bills, 3rd
Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, 4th
Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, 8th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, 30th
Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Mike Evans, TB, TEN, 12
Curtis Samuel, CAR, SF, 11
Jarvis Landry, CLE, NE, 10
Keenan Allen, LAC, CHI, 10
Tyreek Hill, KC, GB, 9
JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT, MIA, 9
D.J. Moore, CAR, SF, 9
Chris Godwin, TB, TEN, 8
Kenny Golladay, DET, NYG, 8
John Brown, BUF, PHI, 8

Last Three Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Mike Evans, TB, 29, 9.6
Keenan Allen, LAC, 27, 10
Stefon Diggs, MIN, 26, 6.1
Tyreek Hill, KC, 24, 6.5
Hunter Henry, LAC, 23, 7
Allen Robinson, CHI, 23, 9.4
Marvin Jones, DET, 23, 6.7
Alshon Jeffery, PHI, 23, 6.7
Travis Kelce, KC, 22, 8.1
DeVante Parker, MIA, 22, 6.6

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Matthew Stafford, DET at OAK ($6,800) – I’m usually not a big fan of paying up for an expensive Stafford but man, he’s been fantastic. Even with an 11.5 DKFP dud mixed in against the Packers, Stafford is averaging 23.7 DKFP, 323 passing yards and seven touchdowns thrown over the last three games. Now he draws a matchup against the Raiders? C’mon now! The Raiders have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league at 19 and the 2,089 passing yards are the 10th most. Against the Bears, Packers and Texans in their last three games, the Raiders gave up 10 passing touchdowns and 9.5 YPA.

WR To Pair Him With…

Kenny Golladay ($7,700) – We’ve seen some big games from all three of the Lions primary receivers in Golladay, Marvin Jones ($6,000) and Danny Amendola ($4,700). Golladay is the most consistent of the bunch and comes into this game averaging 18 DKFP on the year. I love his matchup against CB Daryl Worley, who has been targeted against 39 times allowing 22 receptions for 291 yards and two touchdowns. Golladay is also one of Stafford’s favorite targets in the red zone, as he has a 26.4% target share.

The Top RB Will Be…

Aaron Jones, GB at LAC ($7,000) – This isn’t even because Jones just want crazy for 44.6 DKFP against the Chiefs last week, I think we have a lot to love in this matchup against the Chargers. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Chargers have the seventh-highest total in the league. Not only are they getting beat on the ground but through the air as well. The Chargers allow an 84.4% catch rate, which is the third-highest in the league. Jones has been very involved in the passing game, averaging 6.3 targets over the last three games and seeing at least six targets in five of the Packers’ eight games. This is all while seeing double-digit carries in every single game, giving him that 20 touch potential. With some very expensive backs on this slate, lock in Jones at a friendly $7K salary.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.

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