Chiefs Jaguars Football

Week 6 felt like a rather quiet week after the explosions we saw in Week 5. Four teams are on bye in Week 7 — the Panthers, Browns, Steelers and Buccaneers. With the byes and primetime games, Sunday will feature an 11-game slate with a number of matchups to target. Let’s get into all the information and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

LAR (-3) vs. ATL – 53.5 points

The Rams enter this game with a 4-2 record against the spread this season while the Falcons have the worst record at 1-5, which is tied with the Ravens and Redskins. As favorites, the Rams are 3-2 while the Falcons as underdogs are 1-3. Both teams are 3-3 when hitting the over on their game totals.

After a putrid performance that saw the Rams score only seven points against the 49ers, they’re favored in the highest projected scoring game of the week. Jared Goff ($6,200) attempted only 24 pass attempts, completing 13 of them for … wait for it … 78 yards. He’s in a MUCH better matchup this week against a putrid Falcons defense that has allowed an average of 26.4 DKFP, 276 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. I WANT to be excited about Goff, but his lack of consistency is concerning. The Falcons’ pass rush continues to hover around league average, which is key to getting to Goff. Entering this game, he has just a 43.4% completion rate when under pressure, which remains one of the worst in the league. For reference, Russell Wilson has the highest at 62.1%. On paper, the Rams’ matchup is excellent, it’s just if Goff can carry this offense, which I think he can.

Matt Ryan ($6,300) had yet another week of more than 300 passing yards, something he’s done every week this season. His salary feels too cheap for someone who is averaging 27.4 DKFP, 335 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. The biggest benefit for Ryan and Co. is Rams CB Aqib Talib going on IR. When he’s off the field, opposing teams are completing 66.7% of their pass attempts, compared to the 51.2% when he’s on. Teams also are averaging 11 YPA without Talib compared to the 7.6 when he’s on. This opens up so much more for the Falcons’ offense since Julio Jones ($8,000) will avoid the matchup and instead likely draw Marcus Peters. In coverage, Peters has been targeted against 16 times, allowing 10 receptions for 166 yards and two touchdowns. I have no doubt this game will be full of points and one to target.

Lowest Scoring Game

MIA vs. BUF (-16.5) – 39 points

The Bills enter this game tied for the best record against the spread at 4-1 overall. As favorites, they only have a 1-1 record. The Dolphins, as you can imagine, sit with just a 1-4 record ATS and have never been favored nor likely ever will be. When it comes to hitting the over on their game totals, the Bills have the worst record in the league at 0-5 while the Dolphins aren’t much better at 1-4.

In a game that won’t garner much consideration for fantasy purposes, the Bills are the biggest favorites on this slate. From a betting perspective, the Dolphins look to be the more attractive bet here, as the Bills are averaging just 18 points per game. The Dolphins are allowing the most at 36, but this doesn’t feel like a spot where the Bills will post a ton of points. I certainly don’t mind using Josh Allen ($6,500), who always brings some fantastic upside, but I worry about the necessity for him to do so. We haven’t seen a QB run for more than 15 yards against the Dolphins, which includes Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. In the end, this will be a stay-away game for me, and I think the consensus will agree.

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, 3rd
New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, 5th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, 32nd
New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, 31st
Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants, 29th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers 1st
Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, 5th
Green Bay Packers, Oakland Raiders, 6th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, 32nd
Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, 31st
San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, 1st
Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, 4th

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants, 31st
Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, 29th
Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, 28th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, 1st
Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers, 3rd
Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, 4th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, 30th
Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, 27th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, 12, KC
Michael Thomas, NO, 12, JAX
Auden Tate, CIN, 12, BAL
Stefon Diggs, MIN, 11, PHI
Mike Williams, LAC, 10, PIT
Kenny Golladay, DET, 9, GB
Kenyan Drake, MIA, 9, WAS
Will Filler, HOU, 9, KC
Hunter Henry, LAC, 9, PIT
Golden Tate, NYG, 9, NEP

Last Three Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Cooper Kupp, LAR, 38, 11.5
Michael Thomas, NO, 34, 11.2
Will Fuller, HOU, 31, 8
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, 29,9.3
Robert Woods, LAR, 28, 8.5
Austin Hooper, ATL, 28, 8.3
Tyler Boyd, CIN, 27, 10
D.J. Chark, JAX, 26, 7.3
Dede Westbrook, JAX, 25, 7.5
Austin Ekeler, LAC, 25, 7.5

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Jared Goff ($6,200) – I’m taking Goff on a week where the sentiment on him is likely at its worst. As I mentioned earlier, this matchup for the Rams is so much softer than it was last week against the Niners. The Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks with an average of 26.4. Carson Wentz, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray all have scored at least 20.5 DKFP when facing the Falcons this season. I know the home/road splits are a huge difference for Goff, but I’ll take my chances in the dome in Atlanta.

WR To Pair Him With…

Cooper Kupp ($7,400) – I’m again going back to someone who burned everyone from Week 6. Kupp drew six targets and made four catches for only 17 yards and 5.7 DKFP. Prior to that, he scored 29.7, 29.9, 36.1, 20.6 and 11.6 DK points. I love the matchup against CB Damontae Kazee, who has been targeted against 20 times, allowing 16 receptions for 190 yards and a touchdown. The way this matchup sets up, this should be a huge bounce-back spot for the Rams’ offense as a whole.

The Top RB Will Be…

Leonard Fournette ($7,000) – Fournette is not going to be a sneaky play in Week 7. When a team is facing the Bengals, it usually is wise to target its running back. The Bengals are allowing the highest DKFP average in the league at 35.8. They allow an average of 125 rushing yards and 65 receiving yards with 10 total touchdowns. With Fournette being the volume monster he is, this is such an amazing spot to use him at a salary that simply doesn’t feel high enough. Fournette has logged at least 20 carries and 16 total targets over the past three games and should continue that trend here against the Bengals. The Jaguars are -3 favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday evening.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.

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