You’ll notice that Week 6 is the smallest main slate we’ve seen thus far. Four teams are on the bye this week; the Bills, Bears, Colt and Raiders. We also have some big teams off the main slate like the Patriots, Chargers and Packers. Nonetheless, we still have plenty to dive into for Sunday! As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Highest Scoring GameHOU vs. KC (-4.5) – 54.5 points
The Chiefs are currently -4.5 favorites and along with the Texans are 3-2 against the spread this season. As favorites, the Chiefs remain 3-2 ATS while the Texans as underdogs are 2-0. When it comes to hitting the over on their game totals, the Chiefs sport a 3-2 record while the Chiefs are 2-3.
The hype for this matchup is going to be at an all-time high after a monster performance from the Texans against the Falcons. Deshaun Watson ($6,700) threw for five touchdowns, 426 yards and was 28/33 on pass attempts. The biggest beneficiary was Will Fuller ($6,000) with a 14/217/3 line. As if that wasn’t impressive enough, Fuller averaged 6.2 yards per route run. Fuller draws another favorable matchup against CB Charvarius Ward, who has been targeted against 29 times, allowing 16 receptions for 239 yards and a touchdown. This could also be a get right spot for DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400), whose 526 air yards are just behind Fuller. Hopkins finally draws a favorable matchup against Bashaud Breeland, who has been targeted against 25 times allowed 12 receptions for 181 yards and a TD.
The bigger storyline coming into this game is the status of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. He was clearly limping around during the second half of their loss to the Colts but still managed to throw for 321 yards while completing 22/39 pass attempts. The consensus is that he’ll be OK for this game but it’s worth keeping an eye on. If healthy, he faces a Texans’ team that has allowed an average of 292 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns. They also could potentially get Tyreek Hill ($6,900) back as well. His return would have an impact on the target share for guys like Demarcus Robinson ($5,900) and Mecole Hardman ($5,300) the most.
Lowest Scoring GameWAS (-3.5) vs. MIA – 41 points
Well, these aren’t exactly teams that have been great in the betting realm. The Redskins sport a 1-4 record ATS while the Dolphins are the only team with an 0-4 record. This is the first time this season the Redskins have been favored while the Dolphins have and remained underdogs the entire year. The Redskins are 3-2 on hitting the over on the game total while the Dolphins sit at 1-3.
As for this game…..I mean, what do you want me to say? I truly believe that both defenses are in play with Josh Rosen ($4,500) taking on either Colt McCoy ($4,800) or Case Keenum ($5,000), considering interim coach Bill Callahan said Monday that Dwayne Haskins is not a candidate to start right now. Both of these teams are at the bottom of the league in average points per game with the Redskins at 14.6 (30th) and the Dolphins dead last at 6.5.
I will say, if Albert Wilson ($4,000) remains out, I would have SOME interest in Preston Williams ($4,100). He’s averaged 7.5 targets per game and has a 22.7% target share on the team. Other than that, what a disaster.
DvP MatchupsThis section will now feature stats from 2019
Worst QB MatchupsQB, OPP, DvP Rank
Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, 2nd
Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, 4th
New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, 5th
Best QB MatchupsQB, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, 32nd
Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, 30th
Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, 29th
Worst RB MatchupsRB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, 1st
Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, 4th
Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, 5th
Best RB MatchupsRB, OPP, DvP Rank
Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, 32nd
Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, 31st
New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, 28th
Worst WR MatchupsWR, OPP, DvP Rank
New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, 1st
Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, 3rd
Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, 5th
Best WR MatchupsWR, OPP, DvP Rank
Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, 30th
Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins, 29th
Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, 28th
Worst TE MatchupsTE, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, 4th
Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, 5th
Best TE MatchupsTE, OPP, DvP Rank
Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks, 29th
Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans, 28th
Last Week’s LeadersName, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Cooper Kupp, LAR, SEA, 17
Will Fuller, HOU, ATL, 16
Tyler Boyd, CIN, ARI, 14
Amari Cooper, DAL, GB, 14
Michael Gallup, DAL, GB, 14
Michael Thomas, NO, TB, 13
Gerald Everett, LAR, SEA, 11
Dede Westbrook, JAX, CAR, 11
D.J. Chark, JAX, CAR, 11
Travis Kelce, KC, IND, 10
Last Three Week’s LeadersName, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Cooper Kupp, LAR, 44, 12.6
Robert Woods, LAR, 32, 9.4
Tyler Boyd, CIN, 31, 10.6
Michael Thomas, NO, 29, 11
Will Fuller, HOU, 29, 7.8
Amari Cooper, DAL, 29, 8.6
Austin Hooper, ATL, 27, 8.4
Travis Kelce, KC, 26, 8.6
Dede Westbrook, JAX, 26, 7.4
David Johnson, ATL, 25, 6.6
Lineup Quick Hits
QB To Build Lineups Around…Kyler Murray, ARI vs. ATL ($6,500) – Offensive line issues aside, Murray has looked fantastic overall. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable as the weeks progress and is fresh off a 25.4-DKFP performance against the Bengals. In that game, he threw for 253 yards, rushed for 93 and a touchdown. Now he’s in a potential shootout against the Falcons, who were just roasted by the Texans. Watson pushed the most rushing yards of the season with 47, including one for 30 yards. Murray is much more apt to rushing than Watson, as he’s averaging just under six attempts per game. On a slate where the QB position isn’t exactly loaded, Murray makes plenty of sense.
WR To Pair Him With…KeeSean Johnson ($3,900) – What’ll be interesting to see is how this Cardinals offense looks come Sunday. Reports are out that Christian Kirk ($5,200) could be sidelined once again and David Johnson ($7,600) could also miss this game due to back issues. If that were to come to fruition, KeeSean Johnson could be in for a huge workload alongside Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100). What I like about Johnson is who he’ll see coverage, CB Desmond Trufant. This is who was mostly on Fuller last week, as he allowed six receptions, 124 yards and all three touchdowns while “covering” him. While we’ve yet to see the potential of Johnson, this could be the game.
The Top RB Will Be…Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. PHI ($8,400) – The running back position feels a bit thin in Week 6. With only 10 teams on the slate and missing a lot of the big names, Cook leads the way for me even with a matchup against the Eagles. What I do like is the fact that he’ll get plenty of looks in the receiving game, averaging 4.8 targets per game. Cook continues to dominate the snap counts, taking 66% last week. Cook should once again be good for at least 15 carries and has reached over 100 rushing yards in four of his five games this season. While it may feel a bit expensive for him in this matchup, he’s by far been one of the most consistent backs on a week-to-week basis.
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