If you made it out of Week 4 alive, consider yourself lucky. We always do our best to try and predict what we think will come out of a week’s worth of football but Week 4 showed that variance can strike at any time. Week 5 brings us only two teams on a bye (Lions, Dolphins) and a 12-game slate that is heavily weighted on the early side. Only two games will be played in the afternoon window starting at 4:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Highest Scoring GameATL vs. HOU (-5) – 48 points
The Texans are favored in this game and are currently 2-2 against the spread but 0-2 as favorites. The Falcons continue to be one of the worst teams ATS sporting a 1-3 overall record and 1-2 as underdogs. Both teams have not been successful with hitting the over on the game total either, as the Falcons and Texans both sit with a 1-3 record on the season.
Personally, I think Deshaun Watson ($6,700) is overpriced this week. Being the second most expensive quarterback seems a bit odd to me. Yes, Watson has rushed in three touchdowns this season but otherwise, he hasn’t nearly been as mobile as we’ve once known. Watson is averaging 4.5 rushing attempts and 18.7 yards per game. The Texans’ offensive line issues aren’t exactly helping either, as Watson is third in the league with 18. We also really haven’t seen the Falcons burned by an opposing quarterback thus far either. They’re allowing an average of 222 passing yards and 20.5 DKFP on the year. You’d never realize it but the 890 passing yards allowed by the Falcons are only 50 more than the Patriots have given up, a defense we keep hearing about. I think there’s more to NOT like about Watson than there is to like. His salary is just way too high for me and I’d much rather pay down.
Overall, I think this game could end up being a disappointment. While it is considered to be the current highest-scoring game as I write this Tuesday morning, we have other games that are very much in the range. The Buccaneers and Saints (-4) are currently at 47 points. The Packers and Cowboys (-3.5) are set at 46.5 points. Those are games I’d much rather have some heavy exposure to than this game. I do like a few players here like Julio Jones ($7,700) in a bounce-back spot and Keke Coutee ($3,400) if Kenny Stills ($4,300) is ruled out.
Lowest Scoring GameCHI (-4.5) vs. OAK – 40.5 points
Even before I saw the totals, I knew this game would be the lowest projected score. In a game that will likely feature Chase Daniel ($4,800) under center, the Bears are still the favorites. This would be a great opportunity for the Raiders to get Josh Jacobs ($4,500) going through the air, as the Bears have been dominant on the ground, allowing an average of just 58 rushing yards per game. Through the air, they’ve allowed a 70.3% completion rate for an average of 56.5 yards, which ranks amongst the highest in the league. Jacobs would be a tournament play only but is appealing in what should be a low-ownership spot. Of course, it’s contingent on if the Raiders actually use him properly in that role.
Aside from that, I’m off this game mostly, although the Bears D/ST ($3,800) will be popular. Derek Carr ($5,00) has only been sacked eight times this season but the Bears enter this game with 17, which is amongst the highest in the league. The Bears are the second most expensive D/ST on this slate, with the Patriots ($4,300) being No. 1.
DvP MatchupsThis section will now feature stats from 2019
Worst QB MatchupsQB, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, New England Patriots, 1st
Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, 2nd
Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, 3rd
Best QB MatchupsQB, OPP, DvP Rank
Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, 31st,
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, 30th
New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, 29th
Worst RB MatchupsRB, OPP, DvP Rank
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2nd
Washington Redskins, New England Patriots, 3rd
Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, 4th
Best RB MatchupsRB, OPP, DvP Rank
Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, 32nd
Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, 30th
Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, 28th
Worst WR MatchupsWR, OPP, DvP Rank
Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, 1st
Washington Redskins, New England Patriots, 2nd
Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, 3rd
Best WR MatchupsWR, OPP, DvP Rank
New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, 32nd
New England Patriots, Washington Redskins, 31st
Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, 30th
Worst TE MatchupsTE, OPP, DvP Rank
Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets, 1st
Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, 2nd
Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans 3rd
Best TE MatchupsTE, OPP, DvP Rank
Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, 28th
Last Week’s LeadersName, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Davante Adams, GB, PHI, 15
Chris Godwin, TB, LAR, 14
Cole Beasley, BUF, NE, 13
Mohamed Sanu, ATL, HOU, 12
John Brown, BUF, NE, 11
David Johnson, ARI, SEA, 11
Austin Hooper, ATL, TEN, 11
James White, NE, BUF, 10
Christian McCaffrey, CAR, HOU, 10
Courtland Sutton, DEN, JAX, 9
Last Three Week’s LeadersName, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Keenan Allen, LAC, 38, 12
Zach Ertz, PHI, 31, 9.5
Mike Evans, TB, 30, 8.8
Darren Waller, OAK, 29, 9.3
Michael Thomas, NO, 29, 10.5
Marquise Brown, BAL, 29, 8.5
Davante Adams, GB, 28, 9
Cole Beasley, BUF, 27, 9
Emmanuel Sanders, DEN, 27, 8.5
Tyler Boyd, CIN, 27, 9.8
Lineup Quick Hits
QB To Build Lineups Around…Jameis Winston, TB vs. NO ($6,200) — It honestly makes me angry that I’m likely being sucked into writing up Winston but here we are. He’s posted back-to-back games of at least 29 DKFP and now faces a Saints team that has been one of the most generous to opposing QBs. On the year, the Saints have allowed an average of 29.2 DKFP (second highest) and 295 passing yards (sixth most). Over these last two games for Winston, he’s thrown for seven touchdowns and two interceptions against the Giants and Rams. Interestingly enough, of the 87 completions, Winston has this season, 43% of them have come in the red zone.
WR To Pair Him With…Chris Godwin ($6,900) — Godwin is the sixth most expensive receiver on this slate but draws a dream matchup out of the slot against the Saints. Taking 51% of his snaps here, he’ll draw P.J. Williams, who has been targeted against 16 times, allowing 11 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown. Godwin will be far from a sneaky play this week after his explosive 12/182/2 line from last week, but he has to be considered as one of the best receivers plays of the week.
The Top RB Will Be…Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. GB ($8,300) — We have four running backs priced in the $8K range with Christian McCaffrey ($8,700), Alvin Kamara ($8,600), Dalvin Cook ($8,400) and Elliott. Of these players, Elliott feels to be in the best spot against a Packers’ defense that has been great against the pass but brutal against the run. This defense has allowed an average of 27.6 DKFP (third-highest) and 131 rushing yards per game. While Zeke hasn’t been bad thus far, we really haven’t seen the big fantasy performance we expect from him. His highest fantasy output came in Week 2 against the Redskins, when he scored 23 DKFP, carrying the ball 23 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns. In a game that could be relatively close, Zeke should continue to push 20-plus touches in this game in what is arguably one of his best matchups thus far.
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