Russell Wilson

While Week 3 didn’t have the number of injuries Week 2 did, it did have one of the biggest with Saquon Barkley (ankle) going down for a couple of months. As we look ahead to Week 4, we have lots to dig into. You’ll notice in the defense vs. position section, the rankings are based off this season’s totals. I also have added a section that highlights the top 10 players with the most targets over the past three weeks. Let’s jump into all the information for this week and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

KC (-6.5) at DET – 54 points

Only two games have a total of more than 50 points as of writing, with the other being the Buccaneers at Rams (-9.5) at 51.5. As for this game, the Chiefs once again are favored and are 3-0 against the spread so far. This will be their third road game through the first four weeks. As for the Lions, they are 2-1 against the spread overall and 2-0 ATS as underdogs.

Patrick Mahomes ($7,500), as you’d expect, is the most expensive QB on this slate. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns and more than 374 yards in the first three weeks of the season, averaging 32.3 DKFP. He now faces a defense that has been generous to opposing QBs, allowing an average of 19.7 DKFP and 286 passing yards. The Lions also could be without CB Darius Slay, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. That would leave Mike Ford to take on a larger role while joining Rashaan Melvin in coverage. Melvin has allowed 189 yards on 10 receptions but has allowed only a 47.6 catch rate. Regardless, this secondary would take a big hit without Slay active, which would mean only more good things for Mahomes and Co.

Matt Stafford ($5,500) shouldn’t be forgotten about in this game, either. He’s thrown the ball at least 30 times in all three games and has a 62.2 completion rate while averaging 277 yards and 20.3 DKFP. Despite stopping Lamar Jackson from throwing a touchdown last week, the Chiefs are allowing an average of 19.5 DKFP and 271 passing yards to opposing QBs.

I’m digging the matchup for Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,400), who’ll draw CB Bashaud Breeland in coverage. Breeland has been targeted against 18 times, allowing eight catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. Pairing these two together from the Lions is incredibly cheap, running you $10,900 and leaving you an average of $5,585 for your remaining positions.

Lowest Scoring Game

JAX at DEN (-3) – 37.5 points

The Broncos are favored for the second time this season, carrying an 0-1 record ATS as favorites. As underdogs, the Jaguars are 2-1 ATS. As you’d expect, neither team has been consistent with the over, as both teams as 1-2.

I continue to be impressed with Gardner Minshew ($5,200), who is averaging 17.9 DKFP and 230.7 passing yards per game. However, the Broncos are not exactly a team you look to target against, with opposing quarterbacks averaging only 11.2 DKFP against them. The only play I’d consider in this game is Leonard Fournette ($6,000). While he’s not doing anything spectacular on the ground, he’s good for at least 15 carries in a game and has been busy through the air, averaging 6.6 targets per game. Through the first three weeks, the Broncos are allowing an average of 23.2 DKFP and 85 rushing yards per game.

DvP Matchups

This section now features stats from 2019

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, 1st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, 3rd
Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, 4th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, 31st
Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, 30th
Washington Redskins, New York Giants, 29th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1st
Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, 2nd
Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, 4th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, 32nd
Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, 28th
Oakland Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, 27th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, 1st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, 3rd
Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, 4th

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Washington Redskins, New York Giants, 32nd
New York Giants, Washington Redskins, 31st
Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, 28th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, 2nd
Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, 4th
Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers, 5th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, 30th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Keenan Allen, LAC, HOU, 17
Mike Evans, TB, NYG, 15
Tyler Lockett, SEA, NO, 14
Darren Waller, OAK, MIN, 14
Brandin Cooks, LAR, CLE, 12
Cooper Kupp, LAR, CLE, 12
Christian Kirk, ARI, CAR, 12
Preston Williams, MIA, DAL, 12
Josh Gordon, NE, NYJ, 11
Cole Beasley, BUF, CIN, 10

Last Three Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
Keenan Allen, LAC, 42, 14
Christian Kirk, ARI, 32, 10.6
Sammy Watkins, KC, 32, 10.6
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, 31, 10.3
Cooper Kupp, LAR, 31, 10.3
Evan Engram, NYG, 30, 10
Julio Jones, ATL, 30, 10
Odell Beckham, CLE, 29, 9.6
Darren Waller, OAK, 28, 9.3
Tyler Lockett, SEA, 28, 9.3

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Russell Wilson ($6,100) – After a massive 44.3-DKFP performance against the Saints, Wilson received a modest $200 jump in salary ahead of his matchup against the Cardinals. Through the first three weeks, the Cards have been dismantled by opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 32 DKFP and 306 passing yards, both of which are the third highest in the league. We also saw Lamar Jackson rush for 120 yards against them, which bodes well for Wilson. After rushing for only eight yards on four attempts in Week 1, Wilson has done so 13 times for 73 yards and two touchdowns since then. He should be among the highest scoring QBs on this slate, and you don’t have to pay a premium for it either.

WR To Pair Him With…

Tyler Lockett ($6,300) – To say Wilson loves looking in Lockett’s direction would be an understatement. Averaging 9.3 targets over the first three weeks, Lockett has responded well, bringing down 22 receptions for an average of 92.3 yards per game and two touchdowns. He draws a favorable matchup against CB Tramaine Brock Sr., who primarily covers the slot. When doing so, he’s allowed four receptions on eight targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Brock has been targeted against 16 times, allowing 10 receptions for 229 yards — 95 of which have come after the catch.

The Top RB Will Be…

Austin Ekeler ($8,000) – It’s hard to not write up whatever running back is going against the Dolphins at this point. The Chargers are massive 16.5-point favorites in a game that should serve as an excellent bounce-back for Ekeler. He didn’t have a bad game last week but only nine carries was a bit disappointing. Still, he was very much involved in the passing game, catching all seven of his targets for 45 yards. The Dolphins are allowing an average of 31.2 DKFP, 177 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards to opposing backs so far this season. Justin Jackson ($4,100) could end up in the mix here at some point, but I’m still all for paying up for Ekeler in a cake matchup.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.