I am mainly a cash-game player. Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50 percent of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully, I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
The story of this week was the weather. Five of the best fantasy environments of the week (GB at NYG, SF at BAL, TB at JAX, OAK at KC, NYJ at CIN) had varying degrees of weather concerns. Based on the information we had, I decided to play it straight. In other words, I didn’t make any changes to my lineup based on weather.
MY MUST PLAYS
— Davante Adams was two months removed from his toe injury and in one of the best matchups he’s had all season. I had him with the highest median target projection on the slate. Yet he was just $7,000, a strikingly low price for someone of his talent in this matchup. Even with the weather, I couldn’t pass on Adams.
— With Evan Engram and Golden Tate out, Sterling Shepard was in his natural slot role. I also thought the Packers-Giants game had major shootout potential in a large portion of its outcomes. The weather put a damper on that, but given the rest of the wideout options, I was never coming off of Sterling with a nine-target projection at $4,900.
— Yes, Miles Sanders had burned me in each of the two previous weeks. But that was against the Patriots and Seahawks. Now facing the Dolphins in perfect weather with Jordan Howard (shoulder) still out, Sanders’ usage at $5,400 was impossible to ignore. He projected for 85% of the RB snaps plus all the pass-down work.
— With no Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Ezekiel Elliott or Dalvin Cook on the slate, Christian McCaffrey stood out at the top end. There was only one wide receiver over $5,500 I thought was in play (Davante Adams) and I wasn’t too high on any of the $7K running backs. So it was a no-brainer to pay up for CMC in a home game against the Redskins – especially with cheap value like Tyler Higbee available.
MY WANT PLAYS
— For most of the week, I only considered paying up for Lamar Jackson or down to Andy Dalton at quarterback. In the end, both of those games had a bit of weather and I couldn’t get comfortable with lineups that included them. In the end, I was fine soaking up (hopefully) all the touchdowns for the Eagles via Carson Wentz and Miles Sanders. Lane Johnson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor all healthy for Wentz on top of the weather plus best matchup made him an option.
— The last 3v3 I looked at was Lamar Jackson, Jonathan Williams and Alshon Jeffery vs. Carson Wentz, Le’Veon Bell and Auden Tate. I had some concerns about the game environment for Williams as well as the threat of Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. In the end, Le’Veon Bell’s pass-catching ability against the Bengals was something I prioritized. I didn’t think Alshon’s ceiling was too different from Tate’s, as both are big-bodied touchdown scorers.
— If pricing was equal, I would have played Jack Doyle over Tyler Higbee. But for $800 cheaper and in the most unstoppable flow chart of our generation, I was totally fine with Higbee. Game environment, Gerald Everett injury and matchup were all huge pluses.
— I would have been fine with Cardinals, Browns, Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers at defense. I just played the one that fit, which happened to be talented Ravens at home in the rain. In hindsight, taking advantage of the wind in Arrowhead via the heavily-favored Chiefs likely forcing Derek Carr into a high range of dropbacks was likely a better play.
Week 13 Results
Weeks with four plays I consider “musts” are typically good ones for me. I was happy I stuck with Miles Sanders even though he hurt me in each of the previous two weeks. Forcing in Le’Veon Bell at an inflated price wasn’t great, but the Lamar Jackson/Jonathan Williams/Alshon Jeffery/ARZ D version only scored 4.8 more points.
Week 1: 139.42 points, won 23.7% of head-to-heads.
Week 2: 132.52 points, won 54.3% of head-to-heads.
Week 3: 180.74 and 164.04 points, won 75.9% of total head-to-heads.
Week 4: 152.0 points, won 77.7% of head-to-heads.
Week 5: 239.6 points, won 86.8% of head-to-heads.
Week 6: 122.62 points, won 27.0% of head-to-heads.
Week 7: 116.16 points, won 26.9% of head-to-heads.
Week 8: 169.66 points, won 82.2% of head-to-heads.
Week 9: 203.42 points and 148.8 points, won 70.1% of total head-to-heads.
Week 10: 157.82 points, won 63.8% of head-to-heads.
Week 11: 151.48 points, won 88.6% of head-to-heads.
Week 12: 117.44 points, won 35.0% of head-to-heads.
Week 13: 159.5 points, won 82.0% of head-to-heads.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is adamlevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.