Kyler Murray

Even with three games taking place on Thursday for Thanksgiving, Week 13 still brings an 11-game main slate on Sunday afternoon. We have some of the big names back on tap at the quarterback position, which features two players priced above $7,000. Let’s get into all the information for this slate and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

OAK vs. KC (-9.5) – 51.5 points

The Raiders enter this game with a 6-5 record against the spread and a 5-3 record as underdogs. The Chiefs are also 6-5 ATS and 5-4 as favorites. Both teams have done well at hitting the over on their team total with the Raiders sporting a 6-5 record and the Chiefs at 7-4.

Derek Carr ($5,500) and company were downright embarrassed in Week 12, losing 34-3 to the Jets with Mike Glennon taking over in the final quarter. He at least draws a good matchup on paper against a Chiefs defense that allows an average of 20.2 DKFP and 255 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Carr will be down a receiver as Hunter Renfrow is dealing with a broken rib and a punctured lung, leaving him with the likes of Darren Waller ($5,500), Tyrell Williams ($5,400) and Zay Jones ($3,600). The most popular option from the Raiders will no doubt be Josh Jacobs ($6,900), who is set for one of his best matchups this season. The Chiefs have been gashed on the ground and currently have allowed the most fantasy points with an average of 33.2 per game. With the loss of Renfrow, one would hope Jacobs sees a couple of additional targets to boost his low average of 2.1 per game. Either way, Jacobs is a near must in this game, especially when you consider that teams like the Bengals and Lions, who are nearly as bad against the run, allowed Jacobs to rush for over 100 yards and a combined 44.4 DKFP.

While the Ravens are the team grabbing all the headlines this season, the Chiefs continue to hum along offensively, averaging 27.3 points in their past three games. Now they’ll face a Raiders secondary that’s been extremely poor and has allowed over 200 receiving yards in two of their past four games. While Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) isn’t posting the eye-popping numbers from last year, he still comes into this game averaging 24 DKFP, 312 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game. Tyreek Hill ($8,900) is currently listed as questionable, but the team is optimistic he’ll play. When he’s on the field, the Chiefs are averaging 8.8 YPPA and a 20.7% explosive pass percentage. He’ll also have a very beatable matchup in coverage against Trayvon Mullen, who’s allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 11.5 YPR.

Lowest Scoring Game

LAC (-2.5) vs. DEN – 38.5 points

The Chargers are a putrid 3-6-2 against the spread and 1-5-1 as favorites! The Broncos are 6-5 ATS and 5-3 as underdogs. Neither team has fared well at hitting the over on their game total, with the Charges tied for last in the league at 3-8 and the Broncos at 4-7.

This is a very, very unattractive game to target on both sides of the ball. I’m certainly not taking either quarterback and my focus would likely rest on the running backs. After a really poor performance in Week 12, Phillip Lindsay ($5,000) received a $200 discount against one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Chargers are allowing an average of 28 DKFP to running backs, 98 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards on the year. With Linsday firmly entrenched in his newfound starter’s role, he should find much more success this time around.

The Broncos are another team you can run on, as we just saw the Bills log 171 rushing against them last week. With the Chargers likely finding struggles through the air against a solid Broncos secondary, it makes sense to consider Melvin Gordon ($6,400), who just dropped $500 in salary from Week 11. Gordon is still handling the bulk of the carries and has seen over 20 in two of his past three games. Austin Ekeler ($5,700) is still in play for me as well and is coming off a 12 target game against the Chiefs. While his carries are few and far between, he can at least be tabbed for around five with a handful of targets. Aside from these players, do yourself a favor and look elsewhere.

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, 4th
San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, 5th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3rd
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 6th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, 32nd
Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, 30th
New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, 2nd
Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, 5th
Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, 6th

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 32nd
Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, 31st,
Washington Redskins, Carolina Panthers, 28th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, 2nd
Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, 3rd
Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, 4th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, 32nd
Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31st
New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, 30th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Zach Ertz, PHI, SEA, 14
Jarvis Landry, CLE, MIA, 13
Davante Adams, GB, SF, 12
Leonard Fournette, JAX, TEN, 12
Terry McLaurin, WAS, DET, 12
DeVante Parker, MIA, CLE, 11
Cooper Kupp, LAR, BAL, 10
Dede Westbrook, JAX, TEN, 9
D.J. Moore, CAR, NO, 9
Robert Woods, LAR, BAL, 9

Last Three Weeks’ Leaders

Name, Team, Last Three Week’s Total, Avg. Targets
D.J. Moore, CAR, 35, 9.4
DeVante Parker, MIA, 31, 7.5
Jarvis Landry, CLE, 30, 8.8
Odell Beckham, CLE, 30, 8.8
Christian McCaffrey, CAR, 30, 7.5
Chris Godwin, TB, 26, 8.9
Zach Ertz, PHI, 25, 9.1
Keenan Allen, LAC, 23, 9.7
Deebo Samuel, SF, 23, 5.5
Darius Slayton, NYG, 22, 5.9

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around …

Kyler Murray ($6,400) — We have a lot of options you can choose from this week at the quarterback position, but I’ll be on Murray. Coming off the bye, Murray is averaging 26.8 DKFP over his past three games that included two against the Niners and the Buccaneers. Now we have a faltering Rams defense that just saw Lamar Jackson run for 92 yards while throwing five touchdowns. With plenty of attention on the guys priced above him like Patrick Mahomes ($7,400), Jackson ($7,000) and Aaron Rodgers ($6,500), Murray makes for an attractive option and a safe floor.

WR To Pair Him With…

Christian Kirk ($5,700) — Kirk is expected to draw shadow coverage from CB Jalen Ramsey, which doesn’t sound too daunting anymore. Since joining the Rams, Ramsey has been targeted against 28 times and has allowed 20 receptions for an average of 12.7 YPR. Kirk has been a total boom-or-bust option, but his big-play abilities make him a strong consideration at a low $5,700 salary. Overall, this stack opens up a lot for the rest of your roster and in a game where the Cardinals are underdogs, I’ll take my chances with Murray going to Kirk in this one.

The Top RB Will Be…

Saquon Barkley ($7,400) — Taking Barkley this season has NOT been an experience that has brought us much joy. Nonetheless, this is such a great spot for him against the Packers. What gives me hope is that against a similarly poor Lions run defense he came away with 28.3 DKFP, his highest fantasy output of the year. In that game, he carried the ball 19 times for 64 yards while catching eight-of-10 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown. The Packers give up very similar type production and Barkley is $1,500 less in this matchup.

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