I couldn’t even get it down to five this week, so here are SIX player props to consider for the Week 4 NFL betting card.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
DANIEL JONES: 249.5 PASSING YARDS
Jones shredded Tampa last week for 336 yards in his NFL debut, and looked like the real deal. Danny Dimes feels legit, but we’ll find out soon enough. But the Washington defense isn’t one that’s going to slow him down.
Washington is giving up 288.3 passing yards per game to opponents, and just made Mitch Trubisky look good on MNF. Now it’ll be on the road on a short week, attempting to stop a QB that doesn’t have much film. The lack of a running game with Saquon Barkley (ankle) out, should mean only more passing attempts for the Giants. The market is still too low on Jones across the board in terms of props and salary in DFS.
PATRICK MAHOMES: 315.5 PASSING YARDS
Pretty wild number here on Mahomes, and yet we’re still taking the over even with his WR1 (Tyreek Hill) on the sidelines. But Mahomes has aired it out for at least 374 yards in every game this season, and will somehow be playing his first NFL game in a dome this week.
Here are some great numbers, per RJ Bell: Mahomes played four games in a dome in college, and averaged 492 passing yards per game. That number was 126 yards above his per game average. In Mahomes’ lone NFL preseason game in a dome, he averaged 11.5 yards per attempt, which is 2.5 yards above his career average. With the RB position still banged up, Mahomes keeps rolling here.
NICK CHUBB: 2.5 RECEPTIONS
The -162 juice isn’t ideal here, but I like this number at a lowered price on 3.5 receptions if it gets there. Chubb entered the season as the fire RB, with the passing down role expected to be distributed to other backs until Kareem Hunt returns. The Browns switched it up in Week 3 against the Rams, playing Chubb on all but one snap. No other RB even saw the field.
Chubb has 11 receptions on the season, and at least three in each game. But the Week 3 game when his role expanded was his most encouraging — four receptions on a season-high seven targets. Expect more of the same against a good Baltimore run defense. Being seven-point underdogs could also mean more passing for Cleveland.
PHILLIP DORSETT: 3.5 RECEPTIONS
Dorsett’s been awesome this season, and is one of Tom Brady’s most trusted weapons. Dorsett caught all four of his targets in Week 1, and then all three of his targets in Week 2 — but that was a game the Pats tried to force the ball to Antonio Brown.
In Week 3, without Brown, Dorsett brought in six of his seven targets. Julian Edelman also got hurt during the game, which helped his production. I like this number for Dorsett in this game regardless of who’s on the field, but Edelman (chest) is listed as questionable. If he’s out, this would be an easy accomplishment for Dorsett. The times of him being overlooked in this offense are over.
COOPER KUPP: 5.5 RECEPTIONS
Kupp is by far Jared Goff’s most trusted target. He’s brought in 23-of-31 targets so far this season, and gone over 5.5 receptions in two of three games (he caught five in the other game).
Tampa actually has a very good run defense, so look for the Rams to attack through the air like they did last week, when Kupp caught 11 passes in Cleveland. Goff is generally much better at home, which should also factor in here.
TARIK COHEN: 3.5 RECEPTIONS
After recording eight receptions in the season-opener, Cohen’s caught just two balls in consecutive games. I expect this week to be different because of the matchup and personnel.
Cohen still has seen nine targets in the past two weeks, but hasn’t been on the same page with Trubisky. Going against a tough Minnesota defense, the short routes to Cohen could be appealing to Trubisky, like they were against the Packers in Week 1. The major factor here is the absence of Taylor Gabriel (concussion) — who posted a 6-75-3 line last week. With Gabriel out, Cohen should be featured more in the passing game.
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