I have the rare opportunity to step in for your leader, Julian Edlow, so I’m hoping to make this article count. As he does every Sunday, I’ll go over five-player props I like for this afternoon and the reasoning why. If you have any questions, feel free to drop me a line @SBuchanan24.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
ZACH PASCAL 35.5 RECEIVING YARDS
OVER (-130)The Colts have so many injuries they’re dealing with that SOMEONE has to get the ball. Pascal is in a perfect position to be that guy with no T.Y. Hilton or Eric Ebron on the field. When Hilton has been off the field this season, Pascal has seen his target share jump from 7.8% to 16.3%. His aDOT also takes a massive jump from 9.7 with Hilton to 15.3 without. He also draws a really favorable matchup in coverage against CB LeShaun Sims. In coverage, Sims has been targeted against 20 times allowing a 70% catch rate and 10.1 YPR.
While you’re at it, I don’t mind take the over on Pascal’s receptions, which currently sits at 2.5 at (-106). Taking the over on that makes plenty of sense as well, as Pascal should be busy in this game with so little options available for QB Jacoby Brissett.
TRAVIS KELCE 73.5 RECEIVING YARDS
OVER (-112)For starters, Kelce is averaging 75.7 receiving yards per game. So the over already feels like an enticing number to take. Then you realize that Kelce is taking on the Raiders, who are one of the worst teams in the league at defending tight ends. When Kelce faced this team back in Week 2, he made seven catches for 107 yards, his highest total of the season. The Raiders’ numbers against this position have been better of late, but the Bengals and Jets aren’t really teams I consider to use their tight end position like the Chiefs do. Of the 11 games Kelce has played, he’s hit the over on this total seven times, making this line feeling simply too low to ignore.
DAVANTE ADAMS 75.5 RECEIVING YARDS
OVER (-112)I can’t see I’d blame you for wanting to put money down on anything to do with the Packers as of late. However, you can’t deny this is by far the best matchup they’ve had in quite some time. Adams draws one of the best matchups in coverage against CB Janoris Jenkins of the Giants. In coverage, he’s only allowed a 52.5% catch rate but has seen those go for an average of 13.2 YPR. Adams is averaging 83 yards per game so again, this total feels too low, especially for the matchup he’s drawing. Overall, the Giants have been one of the worst secondaries in the league so Adams should be able to feast no matter who he draws.
LEONARD FOURNETTE 67.5 RUSHING YARDS
UNDER (-112)I hate taking unders but I think this one has a legitimate chance to hit. Fournette has struggled against good run defenses and he’s about to face one of the best. I look toward games against the Colts and Saints and see him rush for 23 and 72 yards respectively. I get that Fournette is one of the more active backs in the league but the Buccaneers defense is allowing an average of just 3.2 YPC and has held opposing teams to under 40 rushing yards six separate times this season. Fournette could find more success through the air and I would consider taking his receptions prop of over 4.5 at (-148) instead. With the Jaguars as underdogs, I think taking the over on what feels like a low total for Fournette could end up being too risky.
PHILLIP LINDSAY 65.5 RUSHING YARDS
OVER (-112)Lindsay was a disappointment last week, barely missing out on his total from last week.
WELL I’M NOT GIVING UP.
He’s in another good matchup here in Week 13 with QB Drew Lock expected to be under center this time around. It would make sense if Lock was handing off the ball to Lindsay more after he carried the ball just 13 times last week. The Chargers have been very generous to opposing running backs, allowing an average of 98 per game. Lindsay continues to be very efficient with his carries, averaging over four yards in four of his last five games. I’d also expect the Broncos to be a bit more competitive with Lock under center but could struggle to move the ball through the air. With a clear path to do so on the ground, Lindsay is someone we can go back to the well for.
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