I have the rare opportunity to step in for your leader, Julian Edlow, so I’m hoping to make this article count. As he does every Sunday, I’ll go over five-player props I like for this afternoon and the reasoning why. If you have any questions, feel free to drop me a line at @SBuchanan24.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
PHILLIP LINDSAY 60.5 RUSHING YARDS
OVER (-125)Lindsay has emerged from a former split backfield to now the No. 1 starter. A week fresh after earning that title, Lindsay carried the ball 16 times in Week 11, the second-highest amount this season. The biggest difference came with Royce Freeman, who only saw eight carries, the second-straight week he didn’t reach double-digits. Now, Lindsay will face a Bills run defense that’s allowed over 100 rushing yards in three of their last four games and 4.5 YPC overall. A game in which both teams could struggle to move the ball through the air, I like putting the money down on a team that runs the ball on 41% of their snaps.
RYAN GRIFFIN 28.5 RECEIVING YARDS
OVER (-125)This line simply hasn’t adjusted for the role that Griffin now plays in this offense. For someone who is averaging 55.7 receiving yards over his last four games, which, by the way, includes Week 10 where he had -2, this is laughable. With Sam Darnold under center, Griffin is seeing an 11.5% target share while playing on 85.5% of the snaps. The Raiders have been nothing special against tight ends and are allowing an average of 57 yards per game. For a total as low as this, I simply can’t ignore this prop and will be taking this one. I do also like his receptions prop which is currently at 2.5 at (-165). I don’t mind the heavy juice on that, as Griffin has five, one, six and four receptions, respectively in his last four games.
JARVIS LANDRY 61.5 RECEIVING YARDS
OVER (-112)I’m having a hard time understanding this line and instead of trying to make sense of it, I’ll happily take the over. First and foremost, Landry is averaging 69.5 yards per game, so getting a total under that mark feels like a steal in itself, especially against a Dolphins secondary that’s allowing an average of 156 yards per game. Landry also draws one of the most friendly matchups on this slate, as he’ll see CB Jomal Wiltz in coverage. Wiltz has been targeted against 35 times allowing 21 receptions for an average of 12 YPR. Receiving an average of 8.4 targets per game, Landry should be able to hit the over on this total.
ALVIN KAMARA 67.5 RUSHING YARDS
OVER (+105)A lot of the damage Kamara has done this season has been through the air. This is someone who is averaging 6.3 receptions and 46.5 receiving yards per game. However, don’t get it twisted, Kamara still can get it done on the ground, and has the perfect matchup ahead of him in Week 12. The Panthers’ run defense has been nothing special, evidenced by an average of 105 rushing yards allowed or the 4.8 YPC they’ve given up to opposing backs. The 67.5 total is not only getting us plus money, but it’s a total we’ve seen Kamara hit the over on in four of his eight games. Anytime I can get plus-money on a player like Kamara, with the Saints as large favorite (-10), I can’t pass it up.
D.J. MOORE OVER 67.5 RECEIVING YARDS
OVER (-112)I’ve been on Moore for a couple of weeks now so there’s no reason to stop that now. I love his matchup in coverage against CB P.J. Williams, who has allowed 24 of the 37 targets against him to be caught for an average of 12.8 YPR. Williams has also allowed at least one reception to go over 20 yards in four of his seven games active. As for Moore? He’s had at least 95 yards in three straight games, two of which saw 100-plus yards. His target share during that span is massive, drawing a total of 36 in which he caught 24 of them for an average of 13.1 YPR. This number still feels too low for the looks he’s getting and his matchup. Take the over while you can.
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