De'Aaron Fox

This isn’t exactly the matchup we expected before the season. The Warriors had been a powerhouse for years, while the Kings were viewed as one of the top young teams in the league. Fast forward to the final stretch of the season, Golden State has the worst record in the NBA and Sacramento has regressed in a big way. The Kings still have an outside chance of making the playoffs, but they are going to have to win most of their games to finish the season.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.

OPTIONS TO CONSIDER


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FIVE BETTING TRENDS

— The Warriors have lost each of their last 14 games against Western Conference opponents.

— The Kings have covered the spread in each of their last six games against the Warriors.

— Fourteen of the Kings’ last 17 night games have gone OVER the total points line.

— Andrew Wiggins has scored 27-plus points in each of his three previous appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Kings.

— Harrison Barnes has scored 15-plus points in seven of his last eight appearances against the Warriors.

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Kings

Both of these teams are dealing with frontcourt injuries. For the Kings, Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes have both been out for an extended period of time and it’s unclear when they are going to return. Since they got hurt, Nemanja Bjelica ($8,000) has typically been the guy to step up, which looks like it may have changed as of last game. Against the Clippers on Saturday, Harry Giles ($5,600) played a career-high 32 minutes and registered the first double-double of his career. His stock is on the rise and this could be the last chance to buy low on Giles.

For Captain’s pick, I strongly lean towards De’Aaron Fox ($13,800 CP/$9,200) as the top pick. There’s a decent amount of value in this game and a limited amount of players to pay up for. He’s also one of the only safe options here, scoring over 30 DKFP in 18 of his last 20 games. Fox scored 37.5 DKFP the only other time he played the Warriors this season.

Buddy Hield ($8,400) is a solid option from the Kings. Sacramento moved him to the bench a month ago, which seemed like a death sentence to his value. It’s actually had the opposite effect. Despite playing fewer minutes in a reserve role, Hield has seen an uptick in usage and been more efficient, leading to increased fantasy production. Coming off the bench, he’s scoring 34.54 DKFP per game.


Warriors

As mentioned above, both these teams are banged up in the frontcourt. The Warriors’ situation is a bit different from the Kings. Instead of players ruled out, we have guys listed questionable. Draymond Green ($6,800) and Marquese Chriss ($7,400) are both uncertain to play after sitting out the Warriors’ last game. With them out, Eric Paschall ($6,000) entered the starting lineup on Sunday. He wasn’t great, although we should typically expect a good game from Paschall when he starts. In 25 games in the starting lineup, he’s averaging 28.54 DKFP.

As long as he plays, Andrew Wiggins ($9,400) is a player to consider. He didn’t practice yesterday and reports came out that he’s questionable, but he isn’t listed on the Warriors’ injury report. This indicates that Wiggins should play. Since coming to Golden State at the deadline, he’s played well. There isn’t anybody else on this team capable of creating their own offense, leading to Wiggins playing a significant role. As a Warrior, he’s averaging 37.15 DKFP.

Jordan Poole ($6,600) recently entered into the starting lineup, a role he’s expected to keep for the foreseeable future. The last three games playing in his new role, he’s averaged 27.08 DKFP. Unless he moves back to a reserve role or his price goes up, Poole is a player worth rostering every night.


THE OUTCOME

The Kings are desperate for wins while the Warriors are tanking. It’s not a shock that the Kings are a healthy 6.5-point favorite. I like them to win this game and due to where they sit in the standings, it stands to reason that the key players for Sacramento like Fox will play more than their normal amount of minutes. I am not sure there is a single situation where I would favor the Warriors to win until Steph Curry gets back from his wrist injury,

Final Score: Sacramento 116, Golden State 107

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