Zach_LaVine

Wednesday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contests feature a choice between three NBA games: New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors (7:30 p.m. ET), Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans (9:30 p.m. ET) and Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET). The Lakers-Pelicans game features the return of Anthony Davis to New Orleans, which creates an appealing narrative spot. However, this article will focus on the late game in San Francisco.

Draymond Green (heel) is listed as questionable to play for the Warriors, while Ryan Arcidiacono (elbow) is listed as probable for the Bulls.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Green has been upgraded to probable on the league’s injury report for tonight’s game.

For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, including Leonard’s playing status, download the DK Live app, as NBA news, injury reports and betting lines on DraftKings Sportsbook can change throughout the day. Value also unexpectedly can open up due to late lineup changes and late injury news, making it important to stay up-to-the-minute with the DK Live app until lineups lock. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.

BETTING TRENDS

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

— The Warriors have lost 10 of their last 11 games.

— Seven of the last eight home games for the Warriors against Central Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

— Zach LaVine has scored 29-plus points in three of his last four road appearances vs. the Warriors.

— Coby White has scored 26-plus points in each of the Bulls’ last two road games.

— Wendell Carter Jr. has recorded 11-plus rebounds in each of the Bulls’ last four games as favorites.


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Both the Bulls and injury-depleted Warriors have been among the worst teams in the league by point differential. Both offenses rank towards the bottom of the league in points per possession, with Chicago ranking third-worst and Golden State ranking seventh-worst. The Bulls’ defense has been around average by points allowed per possession, while the Warriors’ defense has been abominable. Golden State is allowing over 115 points per 100 possessions, which would rank as the second-worst possession adjusted team defense in the NBA’s database, behind only last season’s Cleveland Cavaliers. Golden State has been poor at both protecting the basket and 3-point line, allowing opponents to make the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket per game while allowing opponents to shoot 40% from 3-point range, the worst mark in the league. Golden State’s shot quality metrics also rank poorly, allowing the sixth most wide-open 3s per game based on the league’s player tracking system, which measures the closest defender to the shooter. While Golden State ranks terribly defensively on a pace adjusted basis, their mediocre pace has them allowing the fifth-most points to opponents and second-most assists to opponents.

While Chicago’s offense has been poor, they land in an extremely favorable spot against a defense that has been terrible. Chicago’s top fantasy option is Zach LaVine ($8,800), who leads the team with about 35 DKFP per game. LaVine was recently challenged by coach Jim Boylen, and it resulted in LaVine chucking up 17 3-pointers and 28 shots two games ago while posting a heavy 40% usage rate, all his highest marks of the season. LaVine drilled 13 of his 17 3-pointers in that game, tied for the second-most made 3s in a game in NBA history. While LaVine’s expanded volume did not continue in the Bulls’ most recent game, he is capable of explosive fantasy performances. LaVine leads the Bulls in field goals attempted within five feet of the basket and 3-point attempts, two areas the Warriors have been weak at defending.

In addition to LaVine, Wendell Carter Jr. ($8,600) and Lauri Markkanen ($7,400) are appealing fantasy options against the Warriors’ league-worst defense, especially given the Warriors have also been poor on the glass. Golden State ranks as a bottom third rebounding team by the percentage of missed shots they rebound. Carter leads the Bulls in rebounding with about 10 per game, and Markkanen ranks second with about seven per game. Coby White ($7,000) ranks second on the Bulls in 3-point volume and could also take advantage of a Warriors defense that has allowed the second-most 3s per game while allowing the highest 3-point shooting percentage.

Chicago’s defense hasn’t been nearly as poor as Golden State’s defense, but they are still an unimposing fantasy opponent for the Warriors. Chicago ranks around league average by possession adjusted team defense, and their elevated pace of eighth has them allowing more points to opponents and more assists to opponents than average. Chicago has also been very weak on the glass, ranking as the league’s third-worst rebounding team by the percentage of missed shots they rebound. Chicago’s weakness on the glass could put C Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,400) in a good spot as a cheaper option, as Cauley-Stein ranks second on the Warriors in rebounds per game. Draymond Green ($7,200; heel) ranks first in rebounds per game on Golden State, although his status and minute load is uncertain given he has not played in three games. Download the DK Live app for up-to-the-minute news on Green’s status and the Warriors’ starting lineup.

With Green sidelined, Ky Bowman ($8,200) has been starting at point guard and leads the Warriors in facilitating in that time frame, creating eight potential assists per game on a heavy 77 passes per game. Bowman’s 36 minutes per game during those three games also leads the Warriors, ahead of Eric Paschall ($8,000), who ranks second with 34 minutes per game over Golden State’s last three games. Paschall is having an impressive rookie season, shooting 50% from the field while averaging 32 DKFP per game in five games since D’Angelo Russell (thumb) went out of the lineup. Paschall leads the Warriors in usage rate (26%) since Russell was injured, slightly ahead of Alec Burks ($7,800), who has also seen an expanded role in Russell’s absence.


THE OUTCOME

Bulls players make for appealing Captain’s Pick options given the Warriors’ defensive issues, with LaVine ($13,200 CP), Carter ($12,900 CP) and Markkanen ($11,100 CP) Chicago’s top options. For the Warriors, Paschall’s ($12,000 CP) expanded role since Russell was injured makes him a Captain’s Pick option.

With neither team enjoying a significant rest advantage over the other, fatigue does not appear to be a significant issue in this game. Golden State has been decimated by injuries and has lost 10 of their last 11 games. While a home game combined with potentially getting Draymond Green (heel) back could give them a boost, Chicago has been the better team this season, posting a possession adjusted point differential that has been about seven points better than the Warriors, who rank last in the league by that metric.

Final score: Bulls 110, Warriors 105


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