The Tournament Targets article goes beyond players who are obvious to the naked eye and takes a look at 10 high/risk, high/reward plays who could make or break your tournament lineups tonight!
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#1) Rudy Gay vs. DEN ($7700) – At this price point, you probably need around 46 fantasy points for Gay to pay off his tournament target score, and this could be a nice spot for him to do so. He has a 45 and 55 fantasy point effort in two games already this season and has always been the definition of a high risk/high reward play. This season, it looks like the upside might be a little higher than it has been in year’s past as the loss of Isaiah Thomas has opened up more shooting opportunities for Gay. Denver also runs a high-tempo offense and while Gay struggled Monday against the Nuggets, he only played 23 minutes. The entire Sacramento rotation on Monday was strange which again adds to the riskiness of using Gay tonight, but if given enough minutes you should see him surge. He’s leading all SFs on today’s slate while averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute this season.
#2) Jeff Green vs. TOR ($6700) – His price tag hasn’t quite caught up to his recent performance, meaning he really only needs around 38 fantasy points to hit value in a tournament tonight. Green has looked much more aggressive in the early going this season, taking 28 and 19 shots in his last two games respectively. The 28 shots he took against Dallas led to 54 fantasy points, and 35 real points. Green is one of those guys who will frustrate you if you repeatedly use him throughout the season, but he usually has a high ceiling in an offense with very limited scoring options. Hopefully targeting him tonight isn’t just recency bias from his last time out, but I think he could be looking at another nice evening at home against the Raptors tonight.
#3) Gary Neal vs. MIA ($3400) – At near minimum price, Neal should be in play again tonight after a solid 33 fantasy point performance on Tuesday. Prior to that, he posted 26 fantasy points in the game where Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went down early. Neal’s usage and value likely hinges on MKG missing the game again tonight (he’s currently listed as questionable) but if Kidd-Gilchrist sits this one out you should see 25-30 minutes from Neal who is likely to put up a high volume of shots. At this price, he really only needs around 20 fantasy points to hit value but has the upside for the 30+ range.
#4) Patrick Patterson vs. BOS ($3500) – This is another guy who could probably fall into the category of value play as well, but Patterson is in a terrific spot with Amir Johnson unlikely to play tonight and Jonas Valanciunas listed as questionable. Pat Patt was horrible on Sunday with Johnson out, but bounced back nicely on Tuesday with a 33.5 fantasy point effort. His price point hasn’t caught up to that performance from last night so using him as a salary-saver seems like a good option tonight, especially against a Celtics interior defense that struggles with rebounding and size.
#5) Nerlens Noel vs. ORL ($6000) – Guys who rely heavily on steals and blocks to reach value are almost always tournament plays because of the high variance associated with those two stats. Noel has proven in the early going that he’s capable of racking up steals + blocks (7 combined in his last game) but has also shown some issues hitting the glass and accumulating stats beyond those. He’s in a great spot tonight against the weak interior defense of the Magic and it seems like he’s right on the verge of putting it all together for a really solid output. If he does, you could easily be looking at a 45 fantasy point effort from a $6K player, which destroys his target value score of 36 fantasy points.
#6) Elfrid Payton vs. PHI ($4000) – Payton is sure to be popular today but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should avoid him in tonight’s tournaments. The matchup with the 76ers is always juicy given their uptempo style of play and Payton has come around offensively in his last two games; notching 30+ fantasy points in each. He’s also played at least 30 minutes in all but one game so far this season. What makes him a tournament play though is the fact that his offensive game is still extremely raw, so you’re not going to see high production from him night in and night out. I’d suspect we see some pretty big ups and downs in his rookie season, but tonight should be one of the ups given the matchup.
#7) John Wall vs. IND ($9600) – For a few reasons, Wall really stands out as a nice tournament play tonight. First, he was extremely disappointing on Tuesday night which will lead to a large percentage of players jumping off the bandwagon quickly. Second, he’s priced at the same point as Chris Paul who seems to be the much more popular option for Wednesday night. The Warriors are actually the #1 team in defensive efficiency so far this season overall and the Pacers are dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to point guards through the first few games. Indiana has allowed 36+ fantasy point efforts to the likes of Jeff Teague and Brandon Knight in recent nights, and Wall might slide under the radar because of where he is priced on DraftKings tonight but could also easily post a 55-60 fantasy point effort.
#8) Andre Drummond vs. NYK – Drummond has been a huge disappointment through three games this season, putting him in the perfect spot for a bounce back effort against the Knicks. Drummond has gotten into foul trouble in each of the first three games but I’d argue that’s largely due to not having Greg Monroe in the starting lineup alongside him. With Monroe out, teams can attack Drummond early and get him into foul trouble relatively easily. I’d suspect that Detroit bring Monroe back into the starting unit tonight and that should open things up for Drummond against a below-average Knicks interior defense. When Drummond gets enough time on the court, he’s a 20-20 threat and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post those type of numbers tonight.