Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position for tonight’s games, a 12-game slate. These are plays that could go for about six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
There are only two players on the slate tonight over 8.2K, so there are a lot of mid-tier plays out there tonight — let’s go find them. Ask any questions to me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72
Elfrid Payton ($6,200) – A weakened backcourt in New Orleans, a strong game total (205) with close spread (-3) and Payton’s all-around box score stuffing effect make him a nice play against the not 100% Jrue Holiday and Ish Smith.
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,900) – A revenge game for the Lakers passing on him in the draft and Byron Scott saying he wasn’t a true point guard. He’s looking for a bounce-back game after having to chase Russell Westbrook his last time out. Also, always target the Lakers with point guards. Always. Especially PG with 30% Usage like Mudiay.
Kobe Bryant ($6,600) – He also wants to bounce back after he had a bad game against Wesley Matthews where he shot 3-15. Kobe still eats up over 30% of the possessions when he’s on the floor and it’s a 208 game number with a single point spread. Suffice to say if there is that much scoring, there will be Kobe. Oh yes, there will be Kobe.
Anthony Davis ($10,500) – My second highest individual scorer of the night in a game with a 205 point Vegas total. Davis may have burned enough people to where they won’t trust him and while you may not want to roster him in cash due to trust issues, he’s the ultimate tourney changer when he goes on one of his wild stat explosions. And they are wild, indeed.
Marcus Morris ($5,600) – Plenty of minutes, there’s a sneaky game total here (201) and his price is low enough and his minutes high enough on average to make value without a huge game and differentiate yourself if he does.
Patrick Patterson ($3,700) – Assuming he starts against the Dallas Mavericks, Patterson is a very inexpensive play against a team who struggles against opposing power forwards (28th). It won’t take much for Patterson to make his 21.5 point value threshold as he did in his last game against Milwaukee when he went for 22.75 in 24 minutes, allowing you to go get Davis and/or Andre Drummond.
Andre Drummond ($8,200) – My top scorer of the night. It’s going to take a while for the price models to catch up to the fact that Drummond shares the frontcourt with nobody anymore. Josh Smith? Gone. Greg Monroe? Gone. It’s just Drummond in a game against the Pacers that will have a lot of missed shots due to the low efficiency of both team’s shooting. 20-20 game? Ok, I’ll call that. Done.
Hassan Whiteside ($7,300) – The Hawks do not chase the offensive glass and shoot a lot of threes, leaving big men like Whiteside to gather up all the rebound points. Also, Al Horford typically moves to the perimeter when playing somebody substantially taller and stronger than he is, which reduces the chances for foul trouble. It all adds up to Whiteside having a very nice game up front when fewer people are looking for it.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,000) – We can all mourn that Boogie Cousins is out tonight, but I’m pretty sure Cauley-Stein is cool with some extra minutes, even if it’s against the Memphis Grizzlies, who have been struggling defensively in the early going. Kosta Koufos will likely get Marc Gasol and Cauley-Stein gets Zach Randolph, who doesn’t draw as many fouls or get to the line as much as Gasol, hopefully meaning fewer fouls for the rookie.