Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
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For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier, for tonight’s games, a solid seven-game slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
There are a couple of very attractive matchups and some very slow teams out there and a lot of interesting players to go with, so let’s line em up! Ask any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Stephen Curry ($10,700) – One of the big three for the slate, along with Anthony Davis and LeBron James, Curry is in the highest total of the night, in a good matchup with Toronto, at home. With Klay Thompson back, but with a sore back, and Draymond Green potentially missing time with an illness, Curry could be asked to do even more. Curry’s usage rate without those two on the floor with him is 40 percent, so if Thompson is limited or plays less because the teams needs Iguodala on DeRozan, Curry could assume that load.
Dennis Schröder ($4,600) – He’s had some starts lately, but it’s been with Jeff Teague. When that happens, Schröder’s usage shrinks to almost nothing (12.8% in 25 minutes with Teague). When Teague is off the court, however, The Umlaut’s usage jumps way up to 30.5% and his DKPPM goes from 0.5 with Teague together to 1.15 with Teague off the court.
Garrett Temple ($3,200) – If Temple is the one tabbed to start for Bradley Beal (questionable), he’s a good tourney play. In his last game filling in for Beal, he played 32 minutes and scored 28.75 DK points. The game total is a solid 201 and the Bucks are a below average defensive team who may alos be working OJ Mayo back from injury in this one.
Anthony Davis ($10,800) – It was between Brow and LeBron and I give the edge to Davis due to better matchup (Denver instead of Detroit) and game total (206.5 to 193.5). Denver’s projected frontcourt for tonight (Faried, Hickson) carries defensive ratings of 107.6 and 105.1, meaning there should be plenty of fantasy goodness for Davis to deliver.
Paul Millsap ($7,900) – With both Kent Bazemore and Jeff Teague off the court and Dennis Schröder on the court, Paul Millsap’s rates shoot higher with over 30% Usage and a 1.57 DK PPM rate. Against the Nets, who struggle defending the SF position, Millsap is poised to produce. Millsap is also a top 15 player in DK Net Points, providing 23.7 DK points from peripherals alone.
Cody Zeller ($3,500) – After writing the Game Breakdown (linked above), news broke that the Hornets would not start Jeremy Lin at SG, rather, they would move Nic Batum back to the SG and Marvin Williams to SF to cover Carmelo Anthony, leaving Cody Zeller to start at PF. Zeller has been averaging 0.81 DK PPM, so he could be in line for ~24 DK points with a solid 30 minute workload, making very reasonable value for 3.5K.
Andre Drummond ($9,900) – His price is high and players are going to want to spend on Curry, James and Davis, which puts Drummond and his high ceiling in play. Drummond has been averaging 30.8 DK Net Points per game, laying an extremely firm foundation for value nightly. That Drummond could sneak in a 60-70 DK point game while everyone is rostering down at the position makes him a fantastic tourney option.
Brook Lopez ($7,100) – I think folks don’t roster Lopez because he may be the least fun player to roster and watch. Against the Hawks and their ambivalence towards the defensive glass and lack of size in the post, Lopez always registers a strong game. Al Horford tends to go further outside when he’s lined up against a much bigger player, which means that Lopez has less chance to foul here, too.
Andrew Bogut ($4,800) – It’s a high game total and Bogut will be asked to play more if Draymond Green misses with his illness. Andrew played 31.88 minutes his last time out, which was a 49 DK point fun fest against the Nets. Toronto is also in the bottom ten defending the center position, leaving Bogut in great shape, especially if he goes another 30 minutes tonight.