We tip off the week with a seven game slate. There are plenty of options to choose from so let’s waste no time and jump right into some of tonight’s tournament plays.
Rajon Rondo ($8,000) – Since missing a game on February 26th with a thumb injury, Rondo has been playing at less than 100%. It doesn’t appear that the injury is affecting him much though as he’s averaging 37.75 minutes, 11 points, 12.25 assists, 5.75 rebounds, 1.75 steals and 38.9 fantasy points per game in his last four games. He has scored 39 or more fantasy points in three of those games and his worst performance came against a stingy Spurs defense. Tonight’s matchup is a favorable one as he faces the Pelicans who have surrendered the third most fantasy points per game to point guards in their last 10 games. The Pelicans have allowed +2.14 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. Both of these teams play paced up and don’t play much defense, so there should be plenty of fantasy goodness. This matchup has the second highest total of the slate and just a one point spread. This is a game I’d like to have plenty of exposure to. Rondo is always capable of posting a triple-double.
Jrue Holiday ($7,700) – Eric Gordon’s return did not last long as he suffered a fractured finger and is in danger of missing the rest of the season. Norris Cole is questionable for tonight’s game with a lower back injury and Tyreke Evans is out for the season. Needless to say, the Pelicans’ backcourt is thin as far as depth is concerned and Holiday will likely see a heavy workload moving forward. Despite coming off the bench most nights, Holiday is averaging over 30 minutes and 39 fantasy points per game in his last 10 games. This is a plus matchup tonight as Rondo doesn’t like to play defense. The Kings surrender the third most fantasy points per game and have allowed +4.53 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. As I mentioned above, this game has a high total (220 points) and just a one point spread. Give Holiday a go!
“In the last month, he has exceeded value 60 percent of the time…”
Darren Collison ($4,800) – Collison comes off the bench but averages 28.5 minutes per game for the season and in his last five games has played 32.2 minutes per game. In the last month, he has exceeded value 60 percent of the time by an average of 4.11 points. Tonight’s matchup is one he should do well in as the Pelicans struggle defensively against guards. Collison has topped 28 fantasy points in four of his last nine games and has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points just once in that span. At this price, he needs 28.8 fantasy points to reach 6X, which is what we’re looking for in tournaments. If you consider potential game flow and the matchup, Collison is in a good spot to exceed value tonight. Another plus is that this is the cheapest he’s been since February 23rd.
Editor’s Note (5:20 PM ET) – Mike Conley will not play tonight for Memphis. In 12 games without Conley this season, Mario Chalmers ($4,500) has averaged 25.7 DraftKings points per game. That’s nearly 4 points higher than his season average. If he scored 25 fantasy points tonight, at his current price tag, he would reach over 6X value and makes for an intriguing play at the PG position. Also worth noting, Chris Andersen will sit out for the Grizzlies and Tony Allen remains doubtful to play.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,200) – Yes, I’m targeting this game, but how can we not? Not that the matchup matters for Cousins, but this is a plus matchup. The Pelicans have allowed 4.19 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Opponents are averaging 44.9 rebounds per game against New Orleans, with a -2.5 differential. In two games against the Pelicans this season, Boogie has averaged 29 points, 11 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, and 54.8 fantasy points per game. Watching Boogie and Anthony Davis go at it this evening is going to be fun, but ultimately I think Boogie will have the better stat sheet of the two. In his last nine games, Boogie has topped 50 fantasy points seven times, including two 60 or more fantasy point games and a 70+ fantasy point game. The ceiling is high for him and so is the floor. He’s my top play of the slate and is worth paying up for.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($8,200) – Antetokounmpo continues to play lights out and even though the price is steep, I’m paying up for him. He now has three triple-doubles in his last seven games and was one rebound short of a fourth. The Greek freak is displaying his potential and it’s been a pleasant scene. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 19.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, 7.1 assists, two blocks, 1.6 steals, and 51.9 fantasy points per game. He has only scored fewer than 40 fantasy points twice in that span. He’s fared well against the Bulls this season as he is averaging 47.1 fantasy points per game in two games against them this season. The Bulls have allowed +1.72 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. His price has increased over $1,000 in the last 10 games and this may cause some people to stay away from him, which is even more reason to give him a go.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,800) – Aldridge sat out of Saturday’s game against the Kings due to migraines. At this point it’s unclear if he is in any danger to miss tonight’s game and it’s something you should monitor throughout the day if you’re considering him. What I do know is that this is a great price for Aldridge who is easily a $7,000+ player. In his last 10 games, Aldridge is averaging 32.7 minutes, 19.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 35.45 fantasy points. He has played fewer than 32 minutes just once in that span and has topped 38 fantasy points in three consecutive games. On Fantasy Labs, Aldridge has a 90 percent bargain rating. In his one game against the Pacers this season, he scored 30.8 fantasy points in 27 minutes. Assuming he plays the 32+ minutes he’s been playing, he could be in for a big night. Don’t forget to check on his status before finalizing your lineups!
Editor’s Note (5:40 PM ET) – Zach Randolph and Matt Barnes will also miss tonight’s game against the Cavs. With these injuries the Grizzlies have VERY limited bodies available for this one. Targeting multiple Memphis players tonight is a great way to save some salary cap. Lance Stephenson ($4,000), PJ Hairston ($3700) and Chalmers are the best of the Grizz cheapies but even guys like Vince Carter and JaMychal Green should see big minutes.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300) – Although this isn’t an ideal matchup for Towns, he’s proven to be matchup proof. He has topped 40 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games, including one 60+ fantasy point game and three 50+ fantasy point games. In that span he is averaging 21.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 45.1 fantasy points per game. He also has six double-doubles in the last 10 games. Tonight he faces off against a good defensive Pacers unit, but in the one game he played against them this season, he scored 19 points, grabbed 11 boards, and blocked three shots. That performance was good for 46.8 fantasy points. The Pacers allow 44.8 rebounds per game and have a -0.5 differential. Towns should continue to strive tonight.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,600) – If you watch Clippers games you might notice that they rarely draw up plays for Jordan, but yet he still manages to be a productive fantasy player. He’s a good source of boards and blocks, and does most of his scoring on tip-ins and put backs. Jordan has double-digit rebounds in 10 consecutive games. In that span, he’s averaging 13.7 points, 14.8 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, 1.2 steals, and 41.8 fantasy points per game. He has topped 50 fantasy points in four of his last nine games. Dallas allows the third most rebounds per game to opponents and have a -3.4 differential. Jordan is averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minutes against the Mavs this season and is averaging 36.2 minutes per game in his last 10. If he plays that amount of minutes tonight, he is in a good spot to post up 40+ fantasy points.
Greg Monroe ($6,300) – I love playing bigs against the Bulls as they allow the most rebounds per game. Centers average 21.2 points and 15.3 rebounds, as well as the fifth most fantasy points per game against the Bulls. Chicago has allowed +7.22 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. That number is absurdly high and shows just how bad the Bulls are against opposing bigs. Monroe’s minutes have been inconsistent recently and that can be worrisome, but at this price and in such a good matchup, it’s worth the risk. He’s averaging 15 points, 12 rebounds, and 36.5 fantasy points per game against the Bulls this season. He has just one double-double in the last 10 games, but is in a great spot to get on tonight. At this price he has a good chance to 6X his salary.