In tournaments it’s vital to find plays that contain both upside and the potential to be overlooked by the public. Take two players that are priced at $8,100 and projected for similar output. If one is 33% drafted and the other is 5%, you want to take the 5% player every time. When he outscores the higher drafted player (which will happen often), you’re passing 27% of the field with that play. That’s a very good thing. Below are a few plays from tonight’s games that fit that mold.
Chris Paul – LAC vs. MIN – $9,600- Paul is a great pivot off John wall tonight. I expect Wall to be very heavily owned due to his matchup against the Kings. Paul finds himself in a plus game environment and is projected for similar output to Wall at a $400 discount. The Clippers matchup with the Timberwolves is expected to be competitive and high scoring. I like pairing Paul with DeAndre Jordan tonight.
Tim Frazier – NOP vs. SAS – $3,700- The poor Pelicans are absolutely decimated. They are down to eight bodies tonight and three of them are centers. I expect Norris Cole to sit which leaves Frazier and Douglas as the only real guards on the roster. The matchup against the Spurs will lead most people to look elsewhere. In this instance, I’ll take quantity over quality and hope that Frazier can get hot. It’s a risk worth taking for his measly $3.7k price tag.
Stephen Curry – GSW vs. UTA – $10,300- Make no mistake, this is a bad matchup for Curry. It’s a pace down game against one of the best defenses in the league. Everyone knows that Utah is a matchup to avoid. Combine that with the fact that Curry is coming off a string of pedestrian, at least by his standards, efforts and you have a recipe for very low ownership. Curry is a player that sees his fantasy output rise in close contests and the Jazz are expected to put up a fight tonight. Curry is capable of being matchup proof if his 3-ball is falling. I love the idea of getting him at very depressed ownership levels in a game that should see him playing four quarters.
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Zach Randolph – MEM vs. DEN – $6,300- Randolph has missed a ton of games recently. That fact is going to make people hesitant to roster him tonight. He’s still officially listed as questionable, but he participated in shootaround, and I expect him to play. I don’t think they would have him out there unless he was ready to go, so I’m not overly concerned about his injury. I love the idea of capitalizing on the fear surrounding him, especially given his great matchup against Denver. We saw him put up 60, 37.75 and 38 DKFP in his last three outings. The Memphis offense is flowing through Z-Bo when he’s on the court. He might be my favorite tournament play tonight.
Dirk Nowitzki – DAL vs. NYK – $7,100- Nowitzki had a string of games where he was absolutely rolling, but we’ve now seen two duds in a row. While I’m concerned he’s running out of gas, I still think he’s a great target tonight. He’s playing huge minutes as the Mavericks try to limp into the playoffs. Every game is a must win for them. In addition, Porzingis and his massive wingspan have been ruled out. I much prefer Dirk matching up with Derrick Williams; a man prone to biting on pump fakes.
Mirza Teletovic – PHO vs. MIL – $4,700- Teletovic is always a favorite GPP target of mine. He’s shown that he won’t shy away from shooting the ball a ton when he’s feeling it. He’s a player that will take more shots if his 3-ball is falling and that’s fantastic for tournaments. I expect this game to be heavily targeted, but Teletovic will likely go mostly overlooked. He’s a cheap way to get exposure to a good game environment.
Jonas Valanciunas – ATL vs. ATL – $5,100- Center is generally a weak position tonight. I don’t think there’s a lot of opportunity cost by playing a cheaper player like Valanciunas. Atlanta is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, which presents a solid opportunity for Valanciunas. He’s been playing very well as of late, including a 49 DKFP outburst 3 games ago.
DeAndre Jordan – LAC vs. MIN – $7.900- I really like Jordan for all the same reasons I like Chris Paul. He’s a great pivot off Karl-Anthony Towns, whom I expect to be very popular. It’s a spot where he should play full minutes and it’s an up-tempo game. Karl-Anthony Towns is a plus defender, but the Minnesota defense as a whole is not good, and I expect Paul and DeAndre to pick it apart. DeAndre is locked in right now. Enjoy the last few games of his before Blake Griffin returns.