In tournaments it’s vital to find plays that contain both upside and the potential to be overlooked by the public. Take two players that are priced at $8,100 and projected for similar output. If one is 33% drafted and the other is 5%, you want to take the 5% player every time. When he outscores the higher drafted player (which will happen often), you’re passing 27% of the field with that play. That’s a very good thing. Below are a few plays from tonight’s games that fit that mold.
Brandon Knight – PHO vs. LAL – $7,300 – Since Knight’s return from injury he’s played big minutes and has had a very high usage rate. The problem is his shot hasn’t been falling. He’s going to find his rhythm sooner or later, and tonight he gets an ideal matchup against the Lakers. We saw Knight drop 76.5 DKFP on the Lakers earlier this year. I expect his recent struggles and elevated price tag to keep his ownership at reasonable levels.
Reggie Jackson – DET vs. ORL – $6,200 – Jackson’s minutes have been down due to several blowouts and a bout of illness. He’s feeling better now and his price is down in a plus matchup against the Magic. Both Knight and Drummond have fairly large home/road splits, and tonight they’re at home. The Pistons are also without Kentavious Caldwell-Pope which should funnel a few more shots to Jackson. He won’t play big minutes, but he can do plenty of damage if he can sneak over 30 minutes.
Bradley Beal – WAS vs. ATL – $5,400 – The Wizards have repeatedly stated they want to keep Beal’s minutes down, but their team’s lackluster season is making that very difficult. Beal has seen a return to the starting lineup, and his minutes have been creeping up. We saw him hit 34 minutes last game in the same matchup against the Hawks. His price doesn’t reflect a starting role with minutes in the low 30s. Now is the time to buy low. I expect Beal to go mostly overlooked due to Minnesota wings being priced in the same ballpark.
Marcus Morris – DET vs. ORL – $5,200 – I expect the chalk SF play tonight to be Stanley Johnson. He will be inserted in the starting lineup for the injured Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. KCP has been taking a lot of shots recently, averaging nearly 15 shots per game over the last 5 games. Stanley won’t absorb all of those shots, so look for Morris’ usage to increase. He should go largely overlooked despite being a solid benefactor of KCP’s night off. It’s unlikely that both him and Stanley have big games, so if Morris gets hot, he has the added benefit of restricting the output of a much higher owned player.
“KCP has been taking a lot of shots recently, averaging nearly 15 shots per game over the last 5 games”
Robert Covington – PHI @ DEN – $5,800 – Before Covington was unceremoniously kicked in the head by Jerami Grant, he was playing big minutes and firing at will. Jahlil Okafor’s season ending injury opened the door for a freer flowing offense that was in need of players to step up and take shots. Covington happily obliged. After missing over a week, he’s not on the minds of the people, but he’s walking back into the same situation he left. SF is a very weak position tonight and Covington holds unique upside for his price tag.
Derrick Favors – UTA @ HOU – $7,200 – Favors might be my favorite GPP play of the night. His price is sandwiched between Dirk Nowitzki and Draymond Green; two plays I expect to be very popular. He gets an A+ matchup against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets struggle mightily to defend the PF position, and they will also allow the Jazz to play way up in pace. In their lone meeting so far this season, Favors dropped 47 DKFP. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him meet or exceed that output tonight, and he should come at single digit ownership.
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DeAndre Jordan – LAC @ GSW – $7,700 – There is a lot of cheap value at center tonight, so I really like paying up to be contrarian. It will give your rosters a different look construction wise, and there are several expensive centers in very good matchups. With Bogut expected to miss another game tonight, Jordan is finding himself in a very juicy spot. Draymond will likely start at Center, and that provides a huge rebounding advantage to Jordan. I could see Jordan exceeding 20 rebounds tonight in what should be a competitive and up-tempo affair. I want some exposure to the Clippers game and DeAndre is a good way to do that at a discount.
“With Bogut expected to miss another game tonight, Jordan is finding himself in a very juicy spot”
Andre Drummond – DET vs. ORL – $7,600 – I already touched on the home advantage for both Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Both average nearly 5 DKFP more at home this year. Drummond has dealt with some blowouts and foul trouble in recent games, which has limited his minutes. I expect tonight’s game to be competitive, and that will allow Drummond to play minutes in the low 30’s. He should be able to smash value against the likes of Dewayne Dedmon and Jason Smith.