Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier (top end, mid-tier and low end), for today’s four-game, take it easy slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is or more with an eye toward lower ownership. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
Let’s line em up!
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Stephen Curry ($10,600)- You’ll see a trend here when I get to the forwards, but nobody believes A. Curry will play long minutes) and B. This game will stay close. But what if it does? You’ll be sitting with the greatest matchup of the night with an ownership level that won’t approach what it should be. It’s a risk, of course, and he has to play so keep an eye on the news, but it’s a great play.
Jeff Teague ($6,500) – He’s so stinking frustrating because he has the talent to take over the floor but at times he doesn’t seem to want to. This leads to inconsistency and that scares people away from rostering him. However, he has a great matchup at home against the Knicks and Dennis Schröder, the talented backup we’ve come to know so well, is currently spending some time in the Mike Budenholzer Doghouse and has let Shelvin Mack take his backup minutes, leaving Teague even more assured of his time.
Marco Belinelli ($3,900) When Ben McLemore didn’t come out for the second half last night against OKC, it was Marco that started instead. He’s a one-trick-pony but if he’s the one getting 28-30 minutes out of the SG spot in a 214 game total event, then he’s in great shape to get 6x-7x with his 3s.
Carmelo Anthony ($8,200) – Everyone will chase Boogie into a high total game after a huge night Monday against the Thunder and with good reason. But if you wanted a similar ceiling in a closer game then go down to the ATL and roster Melo for almost 2K less. Anthony habitually rattles the Hawks and is the only other forward with 30% usage tonight other than Cousins.
Dirk Nowitzki ($6,200) – Dirk will flourish in a defense-optional game where he can easily get to 30 DK points by playing his regular minutes and given the high scoring nature of the game, may well get over 40K. If Dallas is going to be in this track meet, Nowitzki is going to have to score for them.
Bobby Portis ($4,500) – Oh, you’ve heard of him? Portis is getting a DK point per minute, so it’s just a matter of how many minutes he plays. With Joakim Noah out, he’s been getting regular rotation minutes and the Bucks are weakest at defending the PF position, Portis’ own. If he gets 18 minutes, it doesn’t work, but if he gets 25-28, as he’s done in three of his last four games, he’s golden and so are you.
Pau Gasol ($7,800) – With Noah out, Gasol has slid into the center position, picked up some additional minutes and has produced even more than before. With people spending up for Boogie and probably Butler, it could leave Gasol relatively lower owned in a good matchup.
Zaza Pachulia ($5,900) – He’s in a great spot here and since he’s likely going to be identified as the player most likely to defend Cousins, it could scare people off of a player in a high total game that has produced 6x his current salary the last four games.
Robin Lopez ($4,600) – Too low of a floor for most people, but the Hawks regularly abandon the offensive glass, leaving a pile of rebounds for opposing bigs, Al Horford is not an inside player, limiting potential foul trouble and the Hawks aren’t particularly big, meaning blocks are a more likely situation here. Lopez just had a big game against the Hawks on the 3rd, as if to prove this very point.