The first Monday of 2016 tips off with a 10 game slate. Let’s take a look at some of tonight’s tournament plays.
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Rajon Rondo ($8,400) – Russell Westbrook is a top option almost every night he plays and if you can manage to fit him in your lineups without having to punt too hard at a position, go for it. However, in this same game and $2300 cheaper, Rondo is also very appealing. He offers triple-double upside just about any time he steps on the court. This should be a paced up game and has a 218.5 point total, currently this highest of the night. Rondo has topped 40 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. The Thunder yields the ninth most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards (50.1). Rondo has exceeded value 64 percent of the time by an average of 4.92 points, per Fantasy Labs. The last time he faced OKC, he scored 38.8 fantasy points and flirted with a triple-double. There’s not much to dislike.
Ricky Rubio ($7,100) – Rubio has been someone I’ve been targeting in tournaments in recent weeks. He is another point guard who offers triple-double upside anytime he’s on the court. In his last 10 games, Rubio is averaging 37.3 fantasy points, 9.7 points, 10 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.5 steals per game. He has topped 40 fantasy points in five of those games and has exceeded value 70 percent of the time in that span by an average of 4.22 points, per Fantasy Labs. The one time he faced the Sixers this season; he scored eight points, grabbed six rebounds, and dished out 11 dimes. That was good for 32 fantasy points. The Sixers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to point guards in their last 10 games (55.1) and are yielding the sixth most points per game to opposing teams. The Timberwolves have a 105.25 implied point total.
Evan Turner ($5,100) – Avery Bradley has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means that Turner could be in for a heavy workload. When Bradley went down on Saturday, Turner played 37 minutes. Tonight the Celtics take on the Nets who surrender the most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards (47.9). Turner has topped 24 fantasy points in three straight games, including a 35+ fantasy point performance. He’s displayed his 30+ fantasy point upside numerous times this season. In a matchup like this and with a potential higher usage rate, Turner could smash value. In three games against the Nets this season, he’s averaging 27.9 fantasy points per game.
Draymond Green ($9,900) – Green has a triple-double in two consecutive games and now has three in his last 10 games. In that span, he has exceeded value 80 percent of the time by an average of 11.26 points, per Fantasy Labs. During this 10 game span, he has scored 86.75, 59.75, 55.75, 61.25, and 71.25 fantasy points in a game. His ceiling is as high as just about anyone. With Stephen Curry dealing with a shin injury and potentially playing at less than 100 percent (if he plays at all), Green could see a higher usage rate. The matchup isn’t ideal, but the upside that Green offers is more than enough for me to roster him in tournaments.
Gordon Hayward ($7,500) – Hayward has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last five games and continues to play well in Favors absence. Tonight Hayward faces the Rockets in a game that the Jazz will likely have to play at a higher pace than they are used to. The Rockets play at the seventh highest pace in the league and allow the fourth most points per game to opposing teams. They also allow the third most fantasy points per game to small forwards (44.3). In the last month, Hayward has exceeded value 59 percent of the time by an average of 2.86 points, per Fantasy Labs. So long as Favors remains out, Hayward should be considered a top small forward play in plus matchups like this one.
Thaddeus Young ($7,200) – Young and the Nets will host the Celtics tonight. In three games against them this season, Young is averaging 13.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 32.3 fantasy points. The Celtics surrender the sixth most fantasy points per game (49) and have allowed fantasy point games. He has flashed his 45+ point upside several times this season and could be in for a big game. This matchup has the third highest over/under of the night at 202 points.
Brook Lopez ($7,500) – Lopez has put together to monster performances in back-to-back games as he has combined for 115 fantasy points in those games. He now has a double-double in four consecutive games and in six of his last seven. In that span, he has topped 40 fantasy points in all but one game. Tonight he faces off against the Celtics who surrender the third most rebounds per game and have a -1.3 differential. The Celtics have allowed +5.2 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Lopez is averaging 22.3 points, 10 rebounds, and 38.5 fantasy points per game against the Celtics this season. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 11.55 points. There’s no reason why Lopez doesn’t continue to exceed value this evening.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,300) – Towns has recorded double digit rebounds in seven of his last 10 games. In that span, he has six double-doubles and has eclipsed 38 fantasy points six times. He faces the Sixers who surrender the third most fantasy points per game to centers (52.2) and the sixth most rebounds per game to opposing teams with a -3.6 differential. The Sixers have allowed +5.1 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. In the last month, Towns has exceeded value 67 percent of the time by an average of 5.26 points. This is a great spot for Towns to have a big game.
Jeff Withey ($4,300) – Withey has been filling in for the injured Derrick Favors in recent games and has been making the most of his opportunities. He’s averaging 30 minutes and 32.25 fantasy points in his last four games. Tonight the Jazz take on the Rockets who surrender 44.9 rebounds per game and have a -2.0 differential. Keep an eye on Favors’ status for tonight as he is a game time decision, but if you’re looking for a cheap flier who has the potential to 6x or 7x his salary, Withey is that guy.