Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier (top end, mid tier and low end), for tonight’s games, a challenging, opportunistic five-game slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
Let’s line em up! Ask any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
John Wall ($10,000) – He’s at the magic 10K line where the clicks are harder, mentally. Also, he’s not a Rocket or a Warriors, which means he’s not in the sexy game of the night. He is, however, in a solid total and close game, says Vegas, so he’s primed to produce for his usual workload. He’ll be owned, it is a five-game slate, after all, but with Steph and Harden nearby in a tasty 230 game total, just not as much as maybe he would.
Isaiah Thomas ($7,700) – This is the real sneaky game. Game total is 208 as of this writing, and Thomas is the ONLY Celtic to play 30 minutes a game with more than a 20% usage rate. He’s going to score and even though the length of Michael Carter-Williams is daunting, he can’t stay with Thomas, which will likely mean a little more Bayless on Thomas, which is good, too.
Jerryd Bayless ($4,300)- Speaking of Bayless, if he is asked to play more, then bueno. He’s already dialing up a solid mid 20s minutes rate and getting 24-28 DK points for his trouble. This is a possible 32-36 DK point ceiling game for Bayless here, great tourney punt play that will likely be 5-8% owned even on a slate like this.
Carmelo Anthony ($8,400) – Kurt Rambis’ Minnesota teams played slightly above league average, so that could mean an additional possession or two for Melo, who is having his best peripheral season of his career (19.4 DK Net Points). Draymond Green will be a popular play tonight with their marquee matchup, but Anthony has the ability, against a Wizards team that has struggled all season against wings, to post as good a number tonight.
Dirk Nowitzki ($5,800) – It’s crazy to see Dirk below 6K. This isn’t a great matchup against the slower than a turtle Jazz, but if anyone can provide a 40 DK point upside for less than 6K, it’s easily Dirk, who is still the king of usage on Dallas.
Josh Smith ($4,400) – You want cheap exposure to this game then it might be Smith, who has shown wild inconsistency game to game but possesses a top-shelf peripheral game (23.3 DK points per 36 minutes on peripherals), so in a extreme tempo game like this, with length at a premium against the Warriors, then Smith could get 25-28 minutes here and get 6-7x value.
Greg Monroe ($6,700) – Targeting the Celtics center position has been a good strategy this season and Monroe has been getting longer minutes since Jason Kidd returned to the coach’s chair. He’s also been a usage leader, getting close to 27% of the possessions, tops on the team.
Jared Sullinger ($5,200) – He’s not cheap enough to roster as a no-brainer, he’s doesn’t play consistent enough minutes to count on his production, but once Sully gets in, he’s a monster. He’s a top five peripherals player in DK Net Points per 36 minutes so, on the off chance he gets more than the 24 minutes that Brad Stevens likes to play his bigs, he has the matchup and skill set to pound 35-40 DK points. My kind of tourney play.
Marreese Speights ($3,200) – He’ll probably be a relatively popular choice since Festus Ezeli is out and the game is the prime matchup of the night. However, the last time these two teams played, Howard play 35 minutes for the Rockets and Speight, despite Ezeli missing that game, too, played only 11 minutes. But Curry is healthy for this one, and the spread is high and the game in Oakland, so that could mean some additional floor minutes for Mo, who is a 30% usage monster when in the game and has zero fear about hoisting shots. Kerr and the staff love Mo and it won’t take much floor time for Mo to get to 6x and beyond tonight.