This is a great way to start the week as we have a 10-game NBA slate. There are plenty of options to choose from so let’s waste no time and jump right into some of tonight’s tournament plays.
Kyrie Irving ($7,200) – Irving is averaging 36.75 fantasy points per game in his last six. In the last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 3.55 points. Tonight he faces off against the Kings who play at the fastest pace and surrender the most points per game. The Kings give up the third most points per game and have allowed +2.1 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. The Cavs have been playing at a faster pace under the new coach and Irving has benefited from that. He should be able to take full advantage of this plus matchup. Another plus is that this contest has a 217.5 point over/under.
Jrue Holiday ($6,900) – Holiday has been very productive for the Pelicans as they battle with injuries to their back court. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 28.7 minutes, 17.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and 34.3 fantasy points per game. In that span, he has exceeded value 60 percent of the time by an average of 3.17 points. This is a plus matchup for Holiday as the Timberwolves surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game to point guards. They have allowed +1.8 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. A little under a month ago, Holiday scored 37.5 fantasy points against the Timberwolves. He was one assist away from a double-double in that contest. This game has a 210 over/under and only a one point spread.
Ricky Rubio ($6,300) – Rubio has topped 33 fantasy points in four consecutive games. He is averaging 11.75 points, 9.25 assists, three steals, and four rebounds per game in that span. Tonight he faces off against the Pelicans who surrender 49.3 fantasy points per game and have allowed +1.4 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. Rubio needs a little over 37 fantasy points to 6X his salary. He has exceeded 37 fantasy points in two of his last four games. He is very volatile, but provides a good amount of upside and has triple-double potential. The Timberwolves have an implied point total of 105.5 points which is the fifth highest of the slate.
Anthony Davis ($10,000) – Davis has not been the clutch fantasy option he’s been in seasons past and he’s not someone who you’d build your cash game lineups around anymore, but in tournaments that’s not the case. At least, not tonight. He faces off against the Timberwolves who have allowed +2.7 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Davis has scored 50 or more fantasy points in three of his last five games and has not scored fewer than 42 fantasy points in that span. He faced off against the Timberwolves in January and scored 48.25 fantasy points. In that game he scored 35 points, grabbed 7 boards, and blocked two shots. Tonight’s matchup has a 210 point over/under and the Pelicans have a 104.5 implied point total. Essentially this is expected to be a close game with plenty of scoring.
Nicolas Batum ($6,700) – Batum has put together two strong consecutive games and appears to be back to top form. He has scored 45 or more fantasy points in each of the last two games. He is coming off a big game against the Wizards where he was one assists away from a triple-double. The Bulls struggle against small forwards as they surrender the eighth most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed +1.8 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Batum has flirted with a triple-double in each of his last two games and continues to stuff the stat sheet and play well. Tonight should be no different.
Thaddeus Young ($6,700) – Young has a really good matchup tonight against the Nuggets who surrender the third most fantasy points per game to power forwards. For the season, they have allowed +2.0 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Young has put together three consecutive quality starts and looks to make it a fourth tonight. In his last three games, he is averaging 37.7 minutes, 17.3 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 40.8 fantasy points per game. He has now topped 41 fantasy points in two straight games and has three consecutive double-doubles. He has become one of the focal points under new interim coach Tony Brown. At this price, he would need 40.2 fantasy points to 6X his salary and that is something that he is very capable of doing.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,200) – Towns has displayed his ability to score 50+ fantasy points on numerous occasions. In fact, in the last 10 games, he has done it five times. In that span, he is averaging 34.3 minutes, 12.7 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 21.6 points, and 47.4 fantasy points per game. He also has nine double-doubles. Needless to say, he’s playing really good basketball. He has a favorable matchup against the Pelicans who surrender 44.6 rebounds per game and have a-1.9 differential. In his last meeting against the Pelicans, Towns scored 20 points, grabbed 13 boards, and had one block. That performance was good for 42.8 fantasy points. Give him a go!
DeAndre Jordan ($7,900) – Jordan is probably licking his chops as he heads to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers who surrender the second most fantasy points per game to centers. They also allow the eight most rebounds per game. Centers average 21.3 points and 14.9 rebounds per game against the Sixers. With Blake Griffin sidelined, Jordan has been more active in the paint and has boosted up his rebounds. In the last 10 games, he is averaging 15.3 rebounds per game, which is almost two more than his season average. In that span he is also averaging 39.1 fantasy points per game, which is a little over two more fantasy points per game than his season average. The one time he faced off against the Sixers this season, Jordan scored 22 points and grabbed 13 boards, while playing 29.5 minutes. That performance was good for 42.8 fantasy points. I’d expect a similar performance tonight out of Jordan.
Gorgui Dieng ($6,500) – Dieng continues to play heavy minutes and continues to be efficient. He is averaging 36.3 fantasy points per game in his last eight games and is coming off of a big performance against the Bulls. The last time that the Timberwolves played against the Pelicans, Dieng played just 18 minutes, but scored 23.75 fantasy points. If you do the math, that’s 1.32 fantasy points per minutes. The Pelicans surrender the second most fantasy points per game centers, making this a really good matchup for Dieng.