We start off the last full week of February with a seven game slate. There are plenty of options to choose from so let’s waste no time and jump right into some of tonight’s tournament plays.
Isaiah Thomas ($7,800) – Thomas is on his second night of a back-to-back, but has a favorable matchup against the Timberwolves who surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game to point guards. They have allowed +2.0 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. Thomas has scored 60.5, 39.5, and 51.25 fantasy points in his last three games. The last time he played the Timberwolves he scored 42.3 fantasy points. This game has a 217 over/under and just a five point spread. At this price, 6x is 46.8 fantasy points; Thomas has exceeded that three times in the last five games. Give him a hard look.
Ricky Rubio ($6,100) – Rubio has posted some solid games recently as he has topped 33 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, including three 40 or more fantasy point games. A couple of games ago, he was two rebounds and two assists shy of a triple-double. As I’ve said numerous times this season, at this price Rubio is one of the few players with triple-double upside. Tonight he faces off against the Celtics who have allowed +3.2 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. The Celtics play paced up and this is expected to be a high scoring game. There should be plenty of opportunities in this contest for Rubio to light up the stat sheet. The last time he faced the Celtics, he scored 25.5 fantasy points, despite going 1-9 from the court. He’s affordable and is in a good spot to exceed value.
Jamal Crawford ($5,600) – Crawford’s price has increased significantly since the start of the month. However, it’s still reasonable if you consider the minutes he’s been playing and his production. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 90 percent of the time by an average of 9.36 points. In that span, he’s averaging 32.6 minutes, 20.8 points, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steal, and 30.75 fantasy points per game. He has also drained 16 three pointers in those 10 games. He has topped 30 points in six of his last eight games and has played 30 or more minutes in six consecutive games. Chris Paul is dealing with a thigh injury and at this time is in no danger to miss tonight’s game, but if he does, Crawford’s value will increase even more. This is also a favorable matchup for Crawford as the Suns surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards.
Carmelo Anthony ($8,600) – Melo picked up right where he left off prior to the All-Star break as he has topped 47 fantasy points in his last two games. The Knicks will host Toronto who have allowed fantasy point upside. The last time he played against the Raptors, he scored 40.5 fantasy points. He’s a player who can help you win a tournament at a price that won’t take up a significant amount of your salary.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($7,100) – Antetokounmpo has posted three consecutive double-doubles and could make it a fourth in a row. He faces the Lakers who allow the most rebound per game. The Lakers give up the sixth most fantasy points per game and have allowed +1.4 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. In addition to points and rebounds, Antetokounmpo is also a good source of blocks and steals. He has now topped 40 fantasy points in three straight games and should continue to produce at a high level against one of the worst defenses in the league. This matchup has a 208 point over/under and the Bucks have an implied point total of 108 points.
Jae Crowder ($5,700) – Truth be told, I kind of wanted to write about Deng since he’s played well in recent games, but I think his ownership percentage will be higher than I’d like, so I’m pivoting to Crowder. Crowder has been inconsistent in his last 10 games, but has topped 30 fantasy points in two of his last four games and has a favorable matchup tonight. The Timberwolves have allowed +2.2 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. In his last 10 games, Crowder is averaging 29.4 fantasy points per game in games that he attempts double-digit shots. The last time he played against the Timberwolves, he scored 18 points and grabbed 10 boards. That performance was good for 39.5 fantasy points. The Celtics have an implied point total of 111 points which is the third highest of the slate. He needs 34.2 fantasy points to reach 6x, this is something he very capable of doing.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500) – Towns continues to be a consistent DFS option on a nightly basis. Although his price has increased $700 since the start of the month, he is worth paying up for, especially in this contest against a small Celtics frontcourt. The Celtics are allowing 45.9 rebounds per game which is fourth most and surrender the ninth most fantasy points per game to centers. In the last five games, they’ve actually surrendered 61.4 fantasy points per game to centers, being the sixth most in that span. In the last 10 games, Towns has exceeded value 80 percent of the time by an average of 9.27 points. In that span, he has topped 40 fantasy points seven times (including four 50+ fantasy point games) and has nine double-doubles. He should continue to post big numbers tonight and provide a good return on investment.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,600) – Jordan has posted some big numbers in Griffin’s absence and should continue to do so this evening. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 10.05 points. In that span, he is averaging 36.9 minutes, 17.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 13.3 points, 1.1 steals, and 44.9 fantasy points per game. He has topped 50 fantasy points in three of the last eight games. The Suns have allowed fantasy point upside.
Greg Monroe ($7,100) – It’s pretty obvious that based on my picks at center, I like the idea of starting two tonight. After a disappointing game on Friday night, Monroe bounced back with a huge performance on Saturday. Hopefully he carries that momentum over tonight. The matchup doesn’t get any better than this. The Lakers surrender the most rebounds per game and have a -3.9 differential. They give up the third most fantasy points per game and have allowed fantasy point upside as he has topped 50 fantasy points in two of his last four games. This is a great spot for Monroe to hit his ceiling and he should be able to provide a really good return on investment tonight.