We tip off the first Monday in February with a nine game slate. There is plenty of fantasy goodness to choose from, so let’s jump right into some tournaments option for tonight’s games.
Check out more NBA research content for tonight:
Kyle Lowry ($8,700) – Lowry has a good matchup tonight against the Nuggets who give up the fifth most fantasy points per game to point guards. They have allowed 3.0 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. In the last month, Lowry has exceeded value 67 percent of the time by an average of 6.34 points. He offers a steady floor and has displayed his 50+ fantasy point upside numerous times. In his one game against the Nuggets this season, he scored 47.5 fantasy points. The Raptors have an implied point total of 106.25 points. He is a safe option for 40 fantasy points and is in a good spot to 6X his salary.
Kyrie Irving ($6,600) – Irving has been playing well as of late and appears to be underpriced. He has posted back-to-back 20+ point games and has shot over .500 in each of those games. In his last six games, Irving is averaging 30.7 fantasy points per game and has topped 32 fantasy points four times. The Pacers play at the seventh highest pace in the league which means that the Cavs will likely be playing at a faster than normal pace. This matchup has a 209.5 over/under and the Cavs have an implied point total of 107 points. He’s been more aggressive under the new coach and his numbers reflect that. This is a bargain for an all-star caliber player.
Michael Carter-Williams ($6,400) – It doesn’t get more volatile than this, but this is a great spot for Carter-Williams to have a big game. He faces off against the Kings who surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game to point guards. The Kings also play at the fastest pace, which benefits a player like Carter-Williams. They have allowed 2.3 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. Carter-Williams has 40+ fantasy point upside, but can also hurt a great lineup by scoring fewer than 20 fantasy points. He’s a risky play that can pay off big. I wouldn’t recommend to over expose yourself to him, but do recommend some shares. This game has a 214 point over/under and only a four point spread.
Kevin Durant ($10,400) – Durant has been playing some really good basketball as of late. In his last four games, he’s averaging 34 points, 11.25 rebounds, five assists, and 59.6 fantasy points per game. Tonight he faces the Wizards who are the absolute worst when it comes to defending small forwards. They give up the most fantasy points per game to small forwards. Both of these teams play paced, which benefits Durant. This game has the highest total of the evening at 222 points and the Thunder has the highest implied point total of the slate at 115.25. The last time that Durant faced the Wizards, he scored 34 fantasy points in 17 minutes played. That’s two fantasy points per minute!
Derrick Favors ($6,600) – Favors has been eased in since returning from injury, but finally played over 30 minutes in his last game. He’s had two days to rest, so I’m not expecting any minute restrictions tonight. In his last game he scored 20 points, grabbed nine boards, and scored 34.5 fantasy points. Tonight he faces off against the Bulls who allow the second most rebounds per game to opponents. Prior to getting injured, Favors was a $7,000+ salary player, so this is great value. The Bulls are dealing with injuries to their front court, so Favors should be able to return value and some tonight.
Jordan Hill ($4,800) – With Ian Mahinmi already ruled out for tonight’s game, Hill could be in for a more playing time. He started the last game and had a big night. In that game, he played 38 minutes, scored 20 points, blocked six shots, grabbed seven boards, and scored 45.75 fantasy points. In the last two games that he has played more than 30 minutes, Hill has scored over 36 fantasy points in each of those games. The last time he played the Cavs, he scored 28.8 fantasy points. If he repeats that performance, he will 6X his salary. So long as Hill starts, he’s in play.
Marc Gasol ($7,700) – Gasol is questionable for tonight’s game with a knee injury, but he’s been able to play through it the last couple of games. Despite playing at less than 100 percent, Gasol has been posting some solid numbers. In the last 10 games, he’s averaging 40.6 fantasy points, 20.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.1 blocks per game. In that span, he has exceeded value 80 percent of the time by an average of 8.04 points. In two games against the Pelicans this season, Gasol is averaging 27 points, 11.5 rebounds, six assists, 2.5 blocks, and 57.1 fantasy points per game. The Pelicans allow the most fantasy points per game to centers. Keep an eye on his status, but if he plays, he’s one of tonight’s top options at center.
Rudy Gobert ($6,700) – Gobert draws a favorable matchup against the Bulls who surrender the seventh most fantasy points per game to centers. As I mentioned above, the Bulls give up the second most rebounds per game. Centers average 19.9 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Bulls. In the last seven games, Gobert has topped 40 fantasy points four times and has double-digit boards in five of those games. Gobert should dominate in the paint against a banged up Bulls front court. This should be a slow paced game, which benefits Gobert.
Zaza Pachulia ($5,800) – Pachulia is usually a safe option for a double-double. He missed some time with an Achilles strain, but since returning it’s been back to business. He has double-digit boards in each game since coming back from the injury. Tonight he faces the Nets who surrender the fifth most fantasy points per game to centers. The last time that Pachulia played against the Nets, he grabbed 17 boards and scored 11 points. That performance was good for 36.3 fantasy points. He needs 34.8 fantasy points to 6X his salary, which is something he should have no trouble doing tonight. He has topped 30 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games, so even if he doesn’t get you the 6X, he still provides a good return on investment.