The last Monday of 2015 tips off with an 11 game slate and plenty of options to choose from. Let’s jump right into some of tonight’s tournament plays.
Chris Paul ($9,000) – Paul has topped 40 fantasy points in eight straight games, including two 50+ fantasy point games. In the month of December, he’s averaging 42.9 fantasy points and has topped 50 fantasy points three times. Tonight’s matchup against the Wizards is a good one as they surrender nearly 50 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. The over/under for this game is 206.5 points and the Clippers have an implied point total of 102.5 points. This should be a fast paced game with plenty of scoring. In his last 10 games, Paul has exceeded value 80 percent of the time by an average of 6.65 points, per Fantasy Labs.
Tyreke Evans ($7,800) – Evans contributes to just about every category and offers triple-double upside. For the season, he averages 15.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 7.2 assists per game. He has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games, including two 50+ fantasy points games and has three 50+ fantasy point games in his last seven. The ceiling is high for Evans and he has a good matchup against the Magic. Opposing guards have averaged 48.9 fantasy points per game against the Magic in the last 10 games. In the last month, Evans has exceeded value 64 percent of the time by an average of 4.19 points, per fantasy labs. He should have no trouble paying off his salary and has the potential to 6x his salary as well.
Goran Dragic ($5,500) – The way I look at the Heat in recent games is Dragic sets the tone, Bosh carries the team, and Wade closes out games. Tonight Dragic should get off to a hot start as he faces the Nets who surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards (52.2). He has been playing well as of late after a slow start to the season. He has topped 28 fantasy points in five of his last six games, including three 33+ fantasy point games. The last time he played against the Nets he scored 33.3 fantasy points. He’s been exceeding value as of late and should continue to do so this evening. Although the total in this matchup is below 200, the Heat has an implied point total of 101.5 points.
Draymond Green ($9,300) – Green has been one of this season’s biggest surprises. He’s playing at a very high level and it doesn’t appear that he’s planning on slowing down any time soon. He’s topped 40 fantasy points in six straight games and in that span has a 55.75, 61.25, and 71.25 fantasy point performance. Needless to say, he offers a very high ceiling. The Kings are not a good defensive team. The yield the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards (49.2). This game has the highest over/under of the evening at 220 points and the Warriors have the highest team total of the night at 116.75 points. The only concern would be a potential blowout as it could reduce Green’s minutes. That being said, he’s averaging 36.5 minutes and 45.5 fantasy points in two games against the Kings this season.
Chris Bosh ($7,100) – Bosh has two consecutive double-doubles and has played really well as of late. He has topped 45 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He’s 11 of 25 from beyond the arc in that span and has scored 20 or more points in each of those games. The Nets have struggled against power forwards in their last five games, allowing the most fantasy points per game against the position in that span (55.1). In the last 10 games, Bosh has exceeded value 60 percent of the time by an average of 5.11 points, per Fantasy Labs. At this price, he shouldn’t have trouble hitting value tonight and has the potential to 6x his salary.
Nerlens Noel ($5,600) – Noel recorded his second double-double in his last four games on Saturday against the Suns. He has topped 35 fantasy points in two of his last four games and is averaging 30.4 fantasy points per game in that span. In his one game against the Jazz this season, Noel grabbed 10 boards and scored eight points (two points away from a double-double). That performance was good for 26.5 fantasy points. Derrick Favors is dealing with a tight back that kept him out of Saturday’s contest. If Favors misses again, the Jazz’s front court won’t be as tough for Noel to succeed against. Either way, at this price he offers enough upside to roll with in tournaments.
Nikola Vucevic ($7,400) – Vucevic has a great matchup against New Orleans tonight. The last time he played against them, he scored 22 points and grabbed 13 boards, which was good for 47.3 fantasy points. The Pelicans surrender the third most fantasy points per game to opposing centers (52) and the second most points per game to opposing teams (107.1). They also give up the fifth most rebounds per game (45.4) and have a -3.7 differential. Vucevic has topped 41 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has scored 20 or more points in each of those five games. He has three double-doubles in that span. There’s not much to dislike about Vucevic tonight.
Hassan Whiteside ($7,100) – Whiteside faces off against the Nets who surrender the most fantasy points per game to centers (52.9). Opposing centers average 21.8 points and 15.1 rebounds per game against the Nets. In the one game Whiteside played against the Nets this season, he scored 20 points, blocked one shot, and grabbed 13 boards. That was good for 38.8 fantasy points. Whiteside has demonstrated his 50+ fantasy point ceiling and has now topped 40 fantasy points in two of his last four games. The Heat has an implied point total of 101.5 points.
Bismack Biyombo ($5,500) – Jonas Valanciunas is expected to return into the lineup today, but his role for this game is still unclear. What we do know is that the Raptors play against the Bulls who surrender the most rebounds per game and that Biyombo has grabbed more than 11 rebounds in six consecutive games. In the last six games, he’s averaging 15.2 rebounds and 33.6 fantasy points. He has scored 40 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The Bulls allow the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing centers (50.9). Biyombo has made a case to see a bigger role in this front court rotation even with the potential return of Valanciunas.