Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier (top end, mid-tier and low end), for tonight’s games, a low-stress, four-game slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
Let’s line em up!
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Kyle Lowry ($8,300)- He’s the highest salaried guard on the board tonight and his recent scores (27.3, 38.8, 39 and 29) are going to scare folks off of him and likely roster his less expensive and more recently productive teammate, DeMar DeRozan. But Lowry has the better matchup and the ball in his hands more, making him the better play tonight against the Mavs.
Lou Williams ($5,400) – In a crowded Lakers backcourt, Lou continues to shine. He has a good matchup against Jameer Nelson and the defense-optional Nuggets tonight and may not have to compete with Kobe Bryant if he sits again tonight. Lou has been averaging 26% usage without Kobe on the floor this season.
Tony Wroten ($4,000) – Short slate, looking for upside with low ownership that you can land. Enter Tony Wroten, who is a DKPPM guy with enormous upside, especially in a potentially one-sided game against Memphis. Conley has not been lock down himself so if Wroten can get 24-26 minutes, he’s a good play to pay off his value.
Chris Bosh ($7,000) – Same reasoning, almost, as Lowry above. He’s the most expensive and that will chase some folks away because Chris Bosh is not supposed to be the most expensive forward on the board, surely there is some cheaper, etc. I didn’t even get into him in my Game Breakdown today over here. Still, he has a good matchup, has popped four 40+ DK point games in his last eight and he will be lesser owned, though don’t mistake that for single digit ownership – it is a 4-game slate.
Marcus Morris ($5,500) – He fell off greatly after a hot start, but he has a good matchup against the weakest Miami link, the small forward, he is still getting 38-40 minutes per game and this is not a sexy game, matchup and Morris himself fails to register on the gotta-have-him scale. Now that his salary has come down to 5.5K, he’s in value range again, especially with those major minutes.
Jerami Grant ($4,200) – Speaking of sinking salaries, Grant has seen his start to decline again after the return of Nerlens Noel. But Grant is still consistently getting 26-30 minutes a game and still possesses the fill-the-box-score skill set that can pile up the DK points quickly.
Andre Drummond ($9,400) – His ceiling is the highest of anybody on the slate tonight, which puts him in the lineup here automatically. Players will typically also try to get cheap at center to save value since there is more value there, making top end guys like Drummond lower owned than maybe their production would imply. There aren’t a lot of top plays at the other position to pay down for, so maybe that habit will pause tonight, but Drummond being almost 2K higher than Gasol and 2.6K higher that Whiteside may still keep his ownership relatively lower. It’ll be a tough road to value at 9.4K against the Heat, but it’s not nearly impossible and that high ceiling is worth chasing on this slate.
Hassan Whiteside ($6,800) – The flip side. His minutes have started to come up and his ceiling, like Drummond’s, is great, evidenced by his 51.73 DK performance against the Blazers. This matchup against Drummond is both harder offensively, as Drummond is not as lax defensively as Mason Plumlee, and defensively, as there is the potential for four trouble with Andre out there. With a lack of top end guards and forwards tonight, I’m likely going to have a lineup with both in there.
Bismack Biyombo ($5,200) – Jonas Valanciunas is questionable, so if he comes back, it’s the end of the value line for Biyombo, who is now salaried like a starter. If he’s in, he gives you the blocks upside against Zaza Pachulia that could produce a good baseline for his scoring. With the lack of value here or clarity among those players who could be of value (see Denver Nuggets), Biyombo is the lowest I’d go at the position and even he’d be off the board if Valanciunas plays. At that point, just pay up for center with so many lower end plays at the other positions.