Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
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For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier (top end, mid tier and low end), for tonight’s games, a solid six-game slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is. (Ex. $6,000 * 6 = 36DK points equals value.)
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Damian Lillard ($9,200) – Mavericks are an average defensive team against the PG. If Lillard is able to give it a go, he’s a great play given his nearly 32% usage. Since he’s likely a game time decision, too, he’s likely to be lower owned.
Elfrid Payton ($6,100) – Payton has a good matchup against the Timberwolves, but his offense has been so inconsistent making his 40+ DK nights sporadic and an ideal tourney play. Payton has games of 41.5, 36.5 and 49.3 in his last six games.
Wesley Matthews ($4,400) – Wesley Matthews revenge game? He’s more than reasonably priced at 4.4K, has no minutes restriction anymore after returning from his injury and has an above average matchup with the Blazers backcourt. If Matthews sits on the back end of a back to back after all, then Raymond Felton ($3,200) is going to be a great value instead.
LeBron James ($9,700) – James is a cash game staple, so maybe he’s out of place here, but he has a terrific matchup with the Wizards, and maybe the second best ceiling behind Anthony Davis for $900 less. The perception is he hasn’t had great games this season, but he has had three 60+ DK point games.
Zach Randolph ($6,200) – He’s been out for a while, so he’s out of the public mindset. The Grizzlies have the Pelicans, who are the second worst defensive team in the league. The Pelicans have also been weak in the post defensively, and with most focused on Conley or Gasol, Randolph has the ceiling to be a great tourney play while not being very highly owned.
Jerami Grant ($4,700) – No Nerlens Noel so Grant, even if he doesn’t start, will get 30+ minutes against a terrible Lakers defense. Grant has had games of 28.25 and 31.25 in his last two outings.
Brook Lopez ($7,400) – Anytime Brook is the top salaried center on the slate, he’s not likely to be highly owned. Tyson Chandler is questionable for this 205 game total, leaving Alex Len inside to contend with the wide body of Lopez. Given his usage and ability to get to the line, Lopez has a nice ceiling to use in tourneys.
Zaza Pachulia ($6,000) – Few likely realize that Zaza’s had 32 DK points or higher in five of his last six games before last night’s game. Pachulia goes against Mason Plumlee, who was bad last season defensively and has again been hospitable in the middle for Portland.
Alex Len ($3,200) – He won’t have to score much to have a lot of value at this salary if Chandler misses and Brook Lopez is atrocious defending the center position. Playing in one of the highest game totals of the night, he’s the leading candidate for great value there.