Winning in tournaments requires getting not just good efforts from your roster, but some extra high point production. Sometimes this requires differentiation in roster and other times it’s just identifying the high-ceiling plays for the slate.
For our purposes, we’re going to focus on the high-ceiling plays by position, and salary tier (top end, mid-tier and low end), for tonight’s games, a healthy 12-game slate. These are plays that could go for about, on average, six times what their salary is.
Example: $6,000 * 6 = 36 DK points equals value
Let’s line em up! Ask any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy App @jaywalker72.
Rajon Rondo ($8,700)- High total game, back from suspension and Minnesota adds positive value to opposing point guards. This game should be tight throughout, adding to the fun and games. Rondo has triple-double threat talent and, right now, given the Kings status as consistently one of the fastest paced teams in the league, he’s a threat to do that every time he plays.
Chris Paul ($7,800) – Feels like a little bit of a cheat to put him on the second tier, but how often do we see Paul below 8K like this? He won’t be here for long as he’s posted 40+ DK point games in his last three and is back to doing Chris Paul things on the court. He’s a good tourney play in that nobody likes to roster against San Antonio, but the PG position is the one place to roster against San Antonio that doesn’t oppressively hinder regular production.
Jrue Holiday ($5,100) – Just when I think people are catching on to Jrue Holiday, I look at a tournament and he’s less than 3 percent owned. He’s not starting, but he is playing 25-28 minutes and he’s wickedly producing once he’s on the floor. He’s closing games and using a ton of possessions while doing it, 27%, second on the team behind Anthony Davis. Eventually, Alvin Gentry is going to turn him loose for longer minutes as Holiday’s injury gets further in the rearview mirror. Right now, he’s a solid 6x play from the jump, with upside if he goes 30 minutes or higher.
Anthony Davis ($10,500) – The ultimate tournament play. He’s in a game with a slightly positive matchup at his position, not that he needs that kind of advantage to fill the box score. The game itself is a high total game and the spread is close, so that should mean plenty of possessions to get the blocks, rebounds, steals and points needed to get closer to his 70+ DK point ceiling tonight. Boogie Cousins is $300 less, so most will likely opt for the cheaper option, making Davis lower owned.
Derrick Favors ($7,700) – He’s a nightly double-double with steals and blocks, and his production has gone up 5% with Rudy Gobert sidelined the last 10 games. He would more popular of a play if the Jazz were the regular sticks in the mud when it came to pace, but his ability to fill the box score, like former Jazz and current Hawk Paul Millsap, puts him in 50-burger range every night, especially against Denver, who is one of the bottom ten defensive teams in the league that regularly adds 5-10% value to opposing frontcourt players.
John Henson ($4,200) – Miles Plumlee may start, but Henson is the value big on the Bucks you’d want due to his blocked shot/rebound ability in small minute spaces. If the Warriors exact their Oracle REVENGE, as expected, Henson could be in line for more than the 20-25 minutes he’s been getting, even with Greg Monroe injured.
Andre Drummond ($9,100) – Drummond is here by default, as he’s the only guy on the top line tonight at center. Everyone else is in the mid-tier or lower, making Drummond a lower owned play in tourneys as folks buy low at center to pay up elsewhere. Drummond is second in DK Net Points, which filters out scoring and focuses on peripherals, laying down a firm floor with 7x upside in a matchup against the Bulls, third best to opposing centers on the slate.
Nikola Vucevic ($6,800) – No, I’m not sure what Magic coach Scott Skiles is doing, either, but Vucci’s matchup is too good against Mason Plumlee to ignore, even at 28-30 minutes. The game total is solid at 200 and the spread is close, and with Plumlee and Meyers Leonard, the thought may be that Skiles keeps Nikola in there longer to matchup. If so, he’s a strong 45-50 DK point candidate tonight.
Miles Plumlee ($3,300) – The lack of lower cost center talent is obvious, so I’m bailing out a little and going with Plumlee even though, I believe, he’ll be more owned than I like out of tourney play due to his starting assignment and 3.3K salary. He’s going to split minutes with Henson as mentioned above, and he’s not as dynamic as John, but in a high paced game at this salary, he could hit 7-8x value without major minutes and his salary will allow you some of the other tasty tourney plays above. Not every tourney entry has to leave you on an island, so if you’re game, Plumlee can enable other goodness.