The NBA rolls on tonight with a tight five-game slate, with every game sporting a game total that looks to keep the offensive party going from last night. Here are your studs and values, defined as over $7,500 for studs and the rest as values. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Russell Westbrook – OKC at GS – $12,900 – He’s gone up nearly $2K in a week, and he’s still an excellent play if you can get him in there with enough value, as his fantasy totals have been 61.50, 89.25 and 79.50 before last night’s “only” 51. He’s due for a huge bounce back in an uptempo game against the Warriors.
Stephen Curry – GS vs. OKC – $8,800 – Stephen Curry’s usage this season has been 30.8 percent. Meanwhile, Kevin Durant’s usage has been 26.9 percent. Curry will eventually have that stretch of 60-70 DK point nights, and going against OKC, in a great rematch, may just be the time.
Other Options – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,000), Kyrie Irving ($7,600), Isaiah Thomas ($7,500)
Elfrid Payton – ORL vs. SAC – $6,000 – Payton has 21 percent usage in this Frank Vogel offense and has DK point totals of more than 30 a game so far this season. This game opened at 202 points, so while it’s the lowest of the slate, Payton has enough peripherals to make it work.
Jeff Teague – IND at MIL – $5,800 – Teague has started slow in Indiana, but the price is right in a matchup against the Bucks, who have started the season in the bottom 10 of the defensive ratings and a game total that is a healthy 212.5.
Other Options – Kris Dunn ($4,900)
Victor Oladipo – OKC at OAK – $6,600 – Oladipo struggled again last night with a 17 DK point effort, but that was with Westbrook using 56 percent of the Thunder possessions. For the season, Oladipo has 23 percent usage and has taken 16 shots per game.
Zach LaVine – MIN vs. DEN – $6,200 – LaVine has been using possessions himself this season, with a 26 percent raw usage rate and 34+ DraftKings points per game (DKPPG). Tonight, they host the Nuggets and the game total is 209.
Other Options – None.
Tony Snell – MIL vs. IND – $3,400 – Snell played his first game of the season against New Orleans the last time out for the Bucks and he immediately pulled a double/double of 13 points and 10 rebounds in 33+ minutes, scoring 31 DK points in the process. This game against the Pacers will have similar pace and similar amount of possessions, meaning Snell is in the right spot to repeat at a very low cost if he’s in the starting lineup again, as projected.
J.R. Smith – CLE vs. BOS – $4,300 – Smith is playing 31 minutes per game and always has the ability to spike up to 30+ DK points. So far this season, he’s averaging 22 DKPPG and gets a Boston team coming into town on the back end of a back-to-back, with Avery Bradley hurting, a game total of 209 and the Cavs a 9.5-point favorite.
Other Options – Evan Fournier ($6,100)
Kevin Durant – GS vs. OKC – $10,200 – Durant might “only” have a 26.7 percent raw usage rate, but he’s averaging 54.9 DKPPG due to the fact that it’s really only he and Draymond Green there to get rebounds. It’s the first game against the Thunder since he left, and the narrative is strong with his production tonight.
Paul George – IND at MIL – $8,400 – George is averaging over 40 DKPPG, leads the team in raw usage with 26.1 percent and is benefitting from the faster pace set by Nate McMillan. The defense is a little tougher, but the pace of the game and extra possessions will help to balance that out, and George is leading the team with an average of 16 shots per game.
Other Options – LeBron James ($9,600)
Andrew Wiggins – MIN vs. DEN – $6,100 – Wiggins leads the Timberwolves in usage with 29.1 percent and has become the Jimmy Butler role for head coach Tom Thibodeau, meaning long minutes (34 mpg) and high usage. As discussed already, the game against the Nuggets has a solid game total (209), with Minnesota a four-point favorite at home.
Jerami Grant – OKC at GS – $3,900 – Grant had a slow first game, as the scoring in the OKC/LAC game was way under the projected total. However, this new day brings Grant to Oakland, where it should be a faster game, and one in which the Warriors could drop down and go small, which would force the Thunder play Grant more.
Other Options – Danilo Gallinari ($5,800)
Draymond Green – GS vs. OKC -$7,800 – This game is likely to go small, and Durant and Green are the only two guys who rebound on the Warriors first unit. Green had 40 DKFP his last time out against Portland, but took only three shots to get there.
Kevin Love – CLE vs. BOS – $7,100 – Boston comes to Cleveland on the back end of a back-to-back. Love is playing more this season (31 mpg), getting more usage (29 percent, second to Kyrie Irving) and scoring more DKPPG (38). All that, along with the 209 game total, makes Love a solid play here in my opinion.
Other Options – Myles Turner ($7,300), Gorgui Dieng ($6,700)
Jabari Parker – MIL vs. IND – $5,600 – It’s likely we’ll be paying up at PF tonight. However, Parker is a decent value option in this game, with the aforementioned game total, pace, his 23 percent usage and 31 MPG.
Amir Johnson – BOS at CLE – $3,900 – Hate going here after a monster game (47 DK points last night vs. CHI), but there’s little to choose from as of this writing. Al Horford is still out with a concussion and Johnson is good for 25-30 minutes as a result. Don’t lock him in and expect 40 DK points again, but I think 24-25 is reasonable here.
Other Options – Jonas Jerebko ($3,000)
DeMarcus Cousins – SAC at ORL – $10,600 – Boogie looks like he’s been down, but he’s had to face two strong defensive teams on this southern swing in Atlanta and Miami. He’ll find the road much less bumpy in Orlando and remains one of the top ceiling players in the game.
Jusuf Nurkic – DEN at MIN – $6,500- It’s never easy to predict which big man Michael Malone will go with down the stretch. However, he has shown he’ll lean on Nurkic when the matchup is like the one in Minnesota, with Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng up front. When he’s gotten the minutes, Nurk has delivered this season, with 38.7 DKPPG in 29 mpg this season.
Other Options – Karl Anthony-Towns ($7,900)
Nikola Vucevic – ORL vs. SAC – $6,400 – Vucevic destroyed Philadelphia for 52.50 DK points his last time out and gets an even easier matchup with the Kings coming in on tired legs at the end of their Florida road trip. Vucevic offers some nice value for the price.
Kosta Koufos – SAC vs. ORL – $3,400 – As a part of that team fatigue, Koufos may get some additional minutes. He has 24-25 minutes per game on this trip anyway, scoring 24.50 and 18.75 DKFP, not bad at near minimum salary.
Other Options – Tristan Thompson ($4,200), Enes Kanter ($5,200)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.