We’ve got a small six game slate tonight with some decent options, so let’s waste no time and jump right into tonight’s targets.
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Chris Paul ($8,500) – Since returning from a two game absence due to a groin injury, Paul has topped 40 fantasy points in two of his last three starts. He recorded a double-double in his last game and is averaging two steals per game in his last three. He has a favorable matchup against the Nuggets who are surrendering 55.3 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, which is the third most. Another plus is that Paul remains under $9,000 for a player of his caliber. This game has a 206 point over/under and the Clippers have an implied point total of 106.5 points.
Isaiah Thomas ($7,600) – Thomas has one of the higher usage rates of any player in tonight’s slate. He’s averaging a little over 30 minutes per game and has attempted fewer than 15 shots in just two of his last 10 games. He averages 36 fantasy points per game, but has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last six games. That includes a 50 burger that he posted against the Atlanta Hawks who he plays tonight. The Hawks surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards (53.4). The Celtics have an implied point total of 99.75 in a game with an over/under of 203 points.
Other Options – Stephen Curry ($10,900), Damian Lillard ($9,000), John Wall ($8,400)
Deron Williams ($5,800) – Williams has been playing well as of late. He’s averaging 19.7 points, 6.7 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 41.25 fantasy points in the last three games. He has crushed value in each of the last three games and has a good shot to do so again tonight. Surprisingly, the Grizzlies defense has not been as good as it’s been in previous years. They’re surrendering over 100 points per game and opposing point guards are averaging 50.9 fantasy points per game against them.
D’Angelo Russell ($4,500) – Russell has played over 30 minutes in each of his last two games and has top 30 fantasy points in both of those games. The Lakers face the Warriors tonight in a game that will be fast paced and high scoring. Opposing point guards are averaging 51.1 fantasy points per game against the Warriors. If Russell continues to see heavy minutes, he should continue to smash value. He needs just 22.5 fantasy points to hit value and has exceeded that amount of fantasy points in five of his last six games. He has topped 29 fantasy points in every game he’s played 30 or more minutes in.
Other Options – Mike Conley ($6,600), Derrick Rose ($6,000), Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,900)
Jimmy Butler ($8,100) – It’s slim pickings at the shooting guard position tonight if you’re looking for a high-end option. If you’re planning to pay up at this position, Butler is probably the one you want to pay for. The Blazers are allowing the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards (45.1). The Bulls are favored on the road and have an implied point total of 102 points. Butler has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games and offers 50+ fantasy point ceiling. This is a good spot for Butler who’s been shooting the ball well in recent games.
Other Options – Bradley Beal ($6,700)
Avery Bradley ($5,500) – Bradley continues to start in place of injured guard Marcus Smart and has done well in the starting role. He has eclipsed 28 fantasy points in four consecutive games, including two 38+ fantasy point games. At this price, he needs 27.5 fantasy points, so if my math is right, he is good value. In his last four games, he is averaging 21.8 points, 3.8 three pointers, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and 1.5 assists per game. The Hawks surrender the seventh most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards (38.2).
Gary Harris ($3,800) – Harris has played over 27 minutes in four straight games and has been productive in that stretch. He’s averaging 15.75 points, 1.8 three pointers, 2.8 boards, 1.5 steals, and 24.6 fantasy points per game in the last four games. So long as the minutes are there for Harris, he should continue to produce. The Clippers surrender 40.5 fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards.
Other Options – Will Barton ($5,800), Jordan Clarkson ($5,200)
Paul George ($9,900) – George is pricey, but definitely worth paying up for. He faces off against the Wizards who surrender the most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards (47.1). George has topped 49 fantasy points in five of his last nine games and has 55+ fantasy point upside. This game has a 205.5 point over/under and the Pacers have an implied point total of 101.75 points. This is one of those matchups that George can hit his ceiling in.
Other Options – Danilo Gallinari ($6,700), Al-Farouq Aminu ($6,400)
Harrison Barnes ($5,600) – Barnes has topped 30 fantasy points in three consecutive games and has played over 30 minutes in seven straight games. The Warriors are projected to blowout the Lakers tonight and if that happens, Barnes can see a higher usage rate as the Warriors will potentially give their studs a rest. The Lakers allow 105.4 points per game and surrender 39 fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards. If you’re trying to save some money at this position, Barnes is a good option.
Other Options – Jeff Green ($4,500), Thabo Sefolosha ($4,000)
Blake Griffin ($9,400) – Griffin has cooled off over his last couple of games, but a matchup against the Nuggets could be just what the doctor ordered. Opposing power forwards are averaging 51.5 fantasy points per game against the Nuggets, which is the third most in the league. He offers the highest ceiling of all power forwards in tonight’s slate and a relatively safe floor. This game has a 206 point over/under and the Clippers have an implied point total of 106.5 points. This is a good spot for a bounce back game for Griffin. Another bonus is that, recency bias can cause his ownership percentage to be lower than it usually would be in this matchup.
Paul Millsap ($8,200) – The Boston Celtics are allowing the second most rebounds per game to power forwards so far this season(13.2). They lack size in the interior part of their team and it clearly shows against big men. Opposing power forwards are averaging 46.9 fantasy points per game against the Celtics, which is the 10th most in the league. Millsap has a double-double in two consecutive games and has topped 47 fantasy points in each of those games. He should be able continue that streak tonight.
Other Options – Draymond Green ($7,500)
Darrell Arthur ($3,500) – Kenneth Faried is doubtful for tonight’s game which would draw another start for Arthur. In the Nuggets last game, Arthur got the start and played 34 minutes. In that game, he scored 21 points and grabbed eight boards, which was good for 33 fantasy points. The Clippers have surrendered over 47 fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards in their last five games. If you’re trying to fit in some of the top salary players tonight, you might need a cheap player with some upside. Arthur certainly fits that description. Make sure to check out the Nuggets starting lineup before finalizing your rosters as he’s only in play if he starts.
Other Options – Jordan Hill ($4,800), JaMychal Green ($3,400) if he starts in place of Randolph
Pau Gasol ($7,100) – The Blazers are surrendering the second most fantasy points per game to opposing centers (53.1) and 15.4 rebounds per game. Gasol has grabbed double-digit rebounds in five of his last seven games. He has also topped 38 fantasy points in four of the last six games. The Bulls have an implied point total of 102 points tonight.
Marc Gasol ($7,300) – Marc Gasol is one of the few centers who is a threat to post a triple-double. He’s one of the league’s best passing big men and contributes in points, boards, and assists. The Mavs surrender just 44.3 fantasy points per game to opposing centers, but have allowed 51.3 fantasy points per game in their last five. Dallas also allows the sixth most rebounds per game (46.6). Gasol has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last six games.
Other Options – DeAndre Jordan ($7,400), Al Horford ($6,900)
Mason Plumlee ($5,700) – The Bulls are surrendering the most rebounds per game (49.3) and have a -2.1 differential. Opposing centers are averaging the sixth most fantasy points per game against the Bulls (51.1). They also average 19.9 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Bulls. Plumlee has done a good job filling in for the injured Meyers Leonard. In the last three games, Plumlee has topped 31 fantasy points in each game and has two double-doubles. The good news is that his price has not increased by much. This is one of the better matchups a center can ask for.
Other Options – Jared Sullinger ($6,300)