WATCH: PLAYER TO WATCH – DAMIAN LILLARD
After a four-game slate on Halloween night, we have a nine-game slate on the first day of November. With a decent amount of games, we have plenty of interesting options to choose from, so let’s waste no time and jump right into some of tonight’s targets.
Damian Lillard ($9,500) – The Trail Blazers play the Warriors in what should be a paced up game as both teams are amongst the top 10 in game pace this season. Lillard averaged 55.44 DK points in nine games against the Warriors last season, exceeding value 88.9 percent of the time by an average of 12.18 points. He is averaging 37.4 minutes and 55.3 DK points per game through three games, while owning a 35.9 percent usage rate. This game has a projected total of 227.5 points and just a 4.5 point spread, so both offenses should score plenty.
Other Options – Stephen Curry $9,200, Giannis Antetokounmpo $8,900
Kris Dunn ($4,100) – Rubio is out indefinitely with a sprained elbow, so Dunn is expected to get the start on Tuesday evening. He is averaging 17.3 minutes per game and 0.79 fantasy points per minutes, with a 14.3 usage rate. Assuming he plays 25-28 minutes in this contest, he has 6-7X potential based on his point per minutes. He averaged 16.4 points, 6.2 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game as a senior at Providence, so despite a low usage, he could contribute to multiple categories for the Timberwolves in the contest.
Other Options – Tim Frazier $5,900, Ty Lawson $5,500, Sergio Rodriguez $4,700, Matthew Dellavedova $4,200
Klay Thompson ($6,500) – Thompson has been somewhat inconsistent to start the season, but the upside he provides is undeniable. He is averaging 37.3 minutes, 17.7 points, and 27.3 DK points per game. He is shooting 14.3 percent from beyond the arc, but eventually he will start draining those. The good news is that he is averaging seven 3-point shot attempts per game. He displayed his 40+ point upside in the second game of the season. Last year, in nine games against Portland, he averaged 42.58 DK points per game. As I mentioned above, this should be a paced up game with plenty of scoring. This is a very reasonable price for the type of player you are getting.
Other Options – C.J. McCollum $7,200
James Ennis ($4,600) – Ennis continues to get plenty of run for the Grizzlies as Chandler Parsons is out. Ennis is averaging 29.5 minutes per game and has a 16.9 usage rate. He is averaging 24.7 DK points, 13 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, while also shooting 5 of 12 from beyond the arc. If you are looking for an affordable shooting guard that has been steady thus far, Ennis is your guy.
Other Options – Evan Fournier $6,000, Zach Lavine $5,700
Paul George ($8,300) – If there is one thing that stands out here about George this season is the way he is used in the rotation. He no longer sits for most of the second quarter as he did last year. George has a 24.2 usage rate and is averaging 34.1 minutes per game. The Pacers are playing at a much faster pace this season, which will create more touches and opportunities for George. He faces off against a Lakers team that has allowed +1.53 points above expectations to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. He averaged 45.88 DK points in two games against the Lakers last season and posted a 50 burger once. There is plenty of upside here with George and in a position with plenty of high-end options, he is the one that intrigues me the most.
Other Options – Kevin Durant $10,500, Kawhi Leonard $8,600, Carmelo Anthony $7,500
Justise Winslow ($5,200) – Winslow has stepped up his game for the Heat this season, averaging 35 minutes, 14.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, one block and one steal per game. He leads the team in minutes played and is third with a 23.1 percent usage rate. Winslow is averaging 30.6 DK points and has exceeded value 60 percent of the time by an average of 4.66 points, per Fantasy Labs. He has displayed his ability to score 30+ DK points which would be close to 6X at this salary. He could provide some nice return on your investment.
Other Options – Rudy Gay $6,200, Tobias Harris $6,100, Marcus Morris $5,300, Matt Barnes $3,900
Anthony Davis ($10,800) – There is not much to say besides that the Brow is a beast. He is coming off of a poor performance against the Spurs in his last game, but prior to that he had topped 80 DK points in two consecutive games. His usage is through the roof at 37.8 percent and he is playing 37.4 minutes per game. He is all but a lock for a double-double. Not that the matchup matters for Davis, but this one against the Bucks is one that favors him as they have allowed +8.3 points above expectations to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. He offers the most upside of any player on this slate by a decent margin.
Other Options – DeMarcus Cousins $10,400, Draymond Green $7,700, Kristaps Porzingis $7,100
Gorgui Dieng ($6,200) – Dieng is averaging 34.1 minutes and 39.1 DK points per game. The usage is not quite there, but his contributions in rebounds and blocks make up for the lack of shot attempts. He has a double-double in each game this season. Although he is not one of the cheaper power forwards of the slate, his price is reasonable and there is value to be had. The Grizzlies have allowed +3.69 points above expectations to power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. He is playable in both the PF and Center position, adding some extra value.
Other Options – Thaddeus Young $5,700, JaMychal Green $4,600
Andre Drummond ($8,200) – Despite a $300 increase in salary for Drummond, he is still at a price where there is some value considering his abilities. This is a plus matchup for him as he faces a Knicks team that has allowed +5.18 points above expectations to Centers, per Fantasy Labs. Drummond is playing 29.3 minutes per game and leads the Pistons with a 26 percent usage rate. He now has grabbed at least 20 rebounds in each of his last two games. He offers a ton of upside, a safe floor and remains underpriced.
Other Options – Hassan Whiteside $8,700, Karl-Anthony Towns $8,500
Joel Embiid ($5,700) – The lack of minutes are concerning when rostering Embiid, but the fact that he is averaging 1.46 fantasy points per minute cannot be ignored. Despite averaging 18.6 minutes per game, he is averaging 27.1 DK points per game. He has an absurdly high usage rate of 45.5 percent. He’s not the safest option, but there is plenty of upside. So long as there are no announced restrictions on his minutes, he should play his regular role.
Other Options – Greg Monroe $5,600, Mason Plumlee $4,600
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.