We’ve got two games in tonight’s slate. Despite the small number of games, we’ve got plenty of DFS NBA action. Let’s take a look at some of tonight’s players to target.
Damian Lillard – POR at GS – $8,900 – Lillard has stepped up his game in the playoffs. He has topped 38 fantasy points in four of his last five games and is averaging 41.25 fantasy points per game in that span. Although Portland lost game 1 against the Warriors, Lillard had a big night. He scored 30 points, played 42 minutes, dished out five dimes, recorded four steals, and finished the evening with 47 fantasy points. In five games against the Warriors this season, he’s averaging 55.3 fantasy points per game. This should be a paced up game with plenty of scoring. He’s fared well against them all season, and I don’t expect that to stop tonight.
Other Options – Kyle Lowry $7,500
Goran Dragic – TOR vs. IND – $5,900 – This isn’t the best bargain of the evening, but it’s a fair price for Dragic. He hasn’t played great in the post season and doesn’t draw a favorable matchup, but he does provide decent upside and is coming off of a big game. In game 7 against the Hornets, he scored 40.5 fantasy points while shooting 11-17. In the post season, he’s averaging 30 minutes, 14.1 points, 4.3 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 27.6 fantasy points per game. He offers a 25 fantasy point floor with 40+ fantasy point upside. The Raptors have allowed +1.77 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs.
Other Options – Shaun Livingston $5,400
Klay Thompson – GS vs. POR – $8,700 – Only one half of the splash brothers will be on the court tonight, but that’s ok because Thompson has been able to pick up the slack during Curry’s absence. In the post season, he’s averaging 34.5 minutes, 25.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 40.75 fantasy points per game. He has drained 21 three pointers in the last three games. In game 1 against the Trail Blazers, Thompson scored 57.25 fantasy points. In five games this season against Portland, he’s averaging 44.8 fantasy points per game. Needless to say, he’s fared well against them. His usage is up, and this is a matchup he’s been able to exploit all season. Don’t over think it, Klay is a great building block for your lineup.
Other Options – Dwyane Wade $8,200, DeMar DeRozan $7,000, C.J. McCollum $6,600
Allen Crabbe – POR at GS – $3,100 – Crabbe has seen a bigger role in recent games and that shouldn’t change tonight. He’s averaging 30 minutes, 12.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 21.9 fantasy points per game over his last four games. He has now played over 30 minutes in two consecutive games and hasn’t played fewer than 27 minutes in four straight games. At this price, he needs just 15.5 fantasy points to pay off his salary. He has scored over 21 fantasy points in three consecutive games. Safe to say, this is a pretty good bargain as long as the minutes and production remain the same.
Luol Deng– MIA at TOR – $6,700 – Deng is the most expensive and also the most appealing small forward on the slate. The good news is that he won’t hurt your wallet as he’s generally affordable. Deng continues to be clutch for Miami during the post season. He’s averaging 33.9 minutes, 19 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 32.5 fantasy points per game. He has scored fewer than 30 fantasy points just twice in the post season, but hasn’t scored fewer than 27 fantasy points. This isn’t an ideal spot for Deng, but he does provide a steady floor and safe minutes. That can’t be said about many small forwards this evening.
Joe Johnson – MIA at TOR – $4,700 – Johnson starts at the three and Deng starts at the four for the Heat which is why they are both in play. Johnson is averaging 33.7 minutes, 10.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 21.3 fantasy points per game in the post season. He’s been far less consistent than Deng, but he is $2,000 cheaper. He has done decently well against the Raptors this season, averaging 29.3 fantasy points per game in three games played against them. He doesn’t offer a ton of upside, but does offer steady minutes and that can lead to opportunity. If you’re looking for a cheap play at small forward in tonight’s slate, Johnson is someone to consider.
Other Options – Maurice Harkless $4,600, Harrison Barnes $4,400
Draymond Green – GS vs. POR – $10,600 – There’s no need to get cute at this position tonight. There’s a reason Green is the most expensive player on the board, and he’s well worth it. He’s one of two players in tonight’s slate with triple-double upside, and he displayed it in game 1 against Portland. In that game, he finished with 23 points, 11 assists, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks, 1 steal, and 68.25 fantasy points. He has dominated Portland this season, averaging 53.8 fantasy points against them in five games. Green fills up the stat sheet and sees a boost in usage when Curry is absent. He’s the one player I’d consider building your teams around tonight.
Hassan Whiteside – MIA at TOR – $7,900 – Hands down, Whiteside is the best center on the slate. The only concern is that he has only played more than 30 minutes twice in the post season. That being said, he’s averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute and is averaging 29 minutes per game in the last seven games. In that span, he has five double-doubles. He’s 13.1 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, and 36 fantasy points per game in the playoffs. He faces a Raptors team that has allowed +1.89 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. He played three games against the Raptors this season and averaged 29.4 minutes per game and 39.8 fantasy points per game. He has tons of upside and a steady floor despite playing less than 30 minutes per game. He has also proven he can dominate this front court.
Andrew Bogut – GS vs. POR – $4,000 – If you’re trying to save some money at this position to pay up elsewhere, Bogut is someone to consider. He had a big game against Portland in game 1. In that contest, he finished with 10 points, 12 boards, and 36 fantasy points. While it’s unlikely he repeats that performance, he displayed the type of upside he offers. The one concern I have here is the inconsistent minutes. However, at this price there has to be some risk. This is a good matchup as Portland has allowed +4.49 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. Bogut is a volatile play, but the risk/reward factor is in his favor.
Other Options – Mason Plumlee $6,800, Jonas Valanciunas $6,700