The NBA DFS season is coming to an end with very few games left to play. We still have both Conference finals going on, and it is now win or go home time, so I expect the stars to shine brightly for the next week. Let’s take a look at some top plays for the remaining few games.
Russell Westbrook – Thunder v. Warriors – $11,200 – I can’t see myself starting rosters with anybody but Westbrook today. The dude has been a monster all season and has shown no signs of being slowed down in this series. He is averaging 27+ points, 11+ assists, 6.5 rebounds and almost four steals per game in this series. That is good for an average of almost 62 DKFP (DraftKings Fantasy Points). With Stephen Curry failing to reach 40 DKFP in each of the last three games, I see no reason to do anything other than plug in Westbrook.
Kyrie Irving – Cavaliers @ Raptors – ($8100) – If you play a second point guard, I think the decision comes down to Kyrie or Kyle Lowry. Kyrie is the one who makes more sense for me in cash or as a safer GPP play. He has scored 23+ real life points in four of the five games this series. In each of those games he finished with between 36 and 44 DKFP which is a solid return. He does not have huge upside because he shares a facilitating role with LeBron. Kyrie can score and that is useful for a solid fantasy point floor, but if you want upside I think Kyle Lowry makes more sense.
Cory Joseph – Raptors v. Cavaliers – $3,600 – This is not really a spot I want to go cheap at, but Joseph is the best option if you need to. He is seeing the most consistent minutes of the cheap guards, and I’d rather pay up for those minutes than take a flier on Shaun Livingston, who is really the only other potential choice. When he sees 20+ minutes, he makes value at this price.
Klay Thompson – Warriors v. Thunder – $7,800 – I am not thrilled with paying this price for him, but he is one of the better shooting guards who is likely to be a top 2 or 3 scorer. Steph is not 100%, and you can see it in his play, so Klay will need to step up the scoring to help out. The problem is that he is being asked to do quite a bit in this series. He guards Westbrook on one end, which takes a lot out of anybody. Asking him to carry the offense as well is a bit much. He will likely still end up with 30-40 DKFP, but that is not great for his price tag.
DeMar DeRozan – Raptors v. Cavaliers – $7,500 – DeRozan is a very consistent fantasy performer that stays pretty true to his points per minute. The two games where he saw 40 minutes in this series he ended up with 40+ DKFP. With the Raptors in win or go home mode, I expect him to play a few more minutes in each of the next few games. Therefore, I expect him to be closer to 40+ minutes and 40+ DKFP.
Dion Waiters – Thunder v. Warriors – $4,200 – I love the Thunder shooting guards in this series. Both guys are producing and both are my top cheap options. With Klay guarding Westy, we get a banged up Steph defending Waiters and Roberson, and they have made some noise in that matchup. Waiters is seeing a consistent 30 minutes per game this series, and he’s been solid, returning 4-5X value at his price.
Andre Roberson – Thunder v. Warriors – $3,700 – He had a really solid 25 DKFP in game 3, which was a fine 6-7X return. He went nuts in game 4 and put up a 55 DKFP which was both unexpected and doubtful to be repeated. With that being said, he has seen 30+ minutes in 3 games during the playoffs so far and finished with 25, 31, and 55 DKFP in those contests. His breakout game last time out probably earned him a longer leash, and you can’t argue with the production when given his current price.
Kevin Durant – Thunder v. Warriors – $10,300 – Durant is easily my favorite SF option on the day. He has given us a consistent 50+ DKFP in five of his last seven games. He is scoring at least 26 points every game this series and is averaging 9 rebounds to go along with it. He has also turned up the defense, with about 2 steals and 2 blocks per game on average. I will have lineups with both him and Westbrook on them.
LeBron James – Cavaliers v. Raptors – $10,500 – If you do not use KD, LeBron is really the only other viable option to spend up on. He has the 40 DKFP floor and 60-65 DKFP upside too, but I think I just trust KD’s floor to be a tad higher. LeBron does not score as much as KD, and the series has been lower scoring, which is why I choose KD over LeBron. LeBron has been putting up 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists per game over this series. Those numbers are nothing to scoff at.
Andre Iguodala – Warriors v. Thunder – $4,500 – I debated Iggy v. Harrison Barnes and decided the $400 more for Iggy was worth it. He may play a few less minutes, but he is more of a focal point during the minutes he does play with the second unit. He is also on the floor a good bit with the starters and played close to 30 minutes last game. Iggy can contribute more in the other categories besides scoring, which is why I prefer him over Harrison Barnes.
DeMarre Carroll – Raptors v. Cavaliers – $4,000 – There is not much upside here, but Carroll is cheap enough where he does not need to do a ton. He is up to almost 30 minutes a game, and they want him out there to guard LeBron. He doesn’t score, and his shooting has been less that 30% in recent games, but he can add a few stats in all the other categories. Like I said, he does not need to do a ton to make value. Just do not expect a ton of upside from him in this tough matchup.
Serge Ibaka – Thunder v. Warriors – $5,800 – My bold call of the day is going to be a fade of Draymond and Kevin Love. Neither guy has been producing much lately. Ibaka is the top choice I would pay up for. For under $6K, we get a player who has been consistently between 28-32 DKFP in 4 of his last 5 games. That’s a solid 5X return at a pretty reasonable price. Yes, Draymond has the highest ceiling, and Kevin Love may even outscore Ibaka as well. However, neither Green or Love has gone for 5X value yet in their respective series. Ibaka has the best points per dollar so far in this round, and is the most likely to be able to repeat a good performance here.
Patrick Patterson – Raptors v. Cavaliers – $4,200 – Pat Pat has been in and out of the starting line up this series, but he gets a lot of time when the Cavs go smaller. Biyombo and a banged up Valanciunas can’t match up with that smaller Cavs lineup, so Patterson winds up seeing a lot of floor time. He’s solid, but lacks upside. I do think his ownership will be low, because we have three viable cheap PF options to spread the ownership out.
Tristan Thompson – Cavaliers v. Raptors – $4,700 – Tristan is likely the top scorer of these PF options below $5K, but I do not think he has monster upside. He is a great rebounder and can score a little, but is still not playing huge minutes. He is getting 25-30 minutes though, which is more than I can say for the rest of these guys below $5K.
Channing Frye – Cavaliers v. Raptors – $4,100 – Frye is not going to kill you and does have the upside of 5-7X if his shot is falling. Most games he is stuck around the 20 minute mark, so there is not much upside for him. Still, he has been getting us 16-20 DKFP most nights, so he has a floor of 4-5X, even if he is unlikely to repeat the huge 10x+ game he gave us in the first round.
Steven Adams – Thunder v. Warriors – $6,300 – Steven Adams is almost a lock to be the highest scoring center, but that is not saying much. It is a pretty weak group of guys behind him who are not seeing minutes. Adams has been consistently around 30 DKFP when he sees 30 minutes, which he has most of the playoffs with the exception of the last two games.
Enes Kanter – Thunder v. Warriors – $4,300 – This is purely a GPP play if you wanted to use him at all, and it highlights just how bad the options are at the center position. Most games he plays 10-15 minutes and gets you 12-18 DKFP. That is not enough to make him viable, but he does pop off a big 12-16 real life point game with a few rebounds every once in awhile and that would be a nice return for the price. It is not consistent or likely, so I’d limit exposure to GPPs.
Maurice Speights – Warriors v. Thunder $2,100 – I think a straight punt of the position has some merit today, and Speights is the cheapest option that will likely see floor time. He never gets cheated for shot attempts, even if he does only see 10-14 minutes. If you’re following this strategy, you don’t need him to be the top scorer at the position. If you can save $4,000 from Adams and use that money to get a third superstar into your lineup, I think you wind up making up those points pretty easily.