Happy Monday all! We tip off the week with a six-game slate. There are several notable players in question for tonight’s game (Carmelo Anthony, Gordon Hayward, DeMarcus Cousins and Marc Gasol), so keeping an eye on news today is very important as this could change some things. That being said, let’s jump right into it and go over some players to target for tonight.
Mike Conley ($7,500) – Conley is in a prime spot tonight and considering the options in this range, he may go a tad overlooked. No other team in the league has yielded more fantasy points per game to point guards in the last 10 than the Kings. In fact, over their last five contests, they have surrendered 68.4 fantasy points per game to the position. They are also ranked 27th in defense rating this season. Averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute, Conley should not struggle to pay off this salary in this favorable matchup and has quite the ceiling as well.
Other Options – Russell Westbrook $12,500, Kyrie Irving $7,900, Elfrid Payton $7,100
George Hill ($5,900) – Hill really struggled in his last game, but finds himself in a decent position to bounce back. The Pelicans have struggled against point guards over their last 10 games, surrendering 55.1 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Actually, for the season they have given up the fourth most fantasy points per game (55.8), which clearly represents a weakness in their defense. Hill tends to be volatile with his production, but does play consistent minutes and has displayed his ability to top 40+ fantasy points multiple times this season, including twice in the last 10 games. He could fly under the radar, making him an interesting tournament option.
Other Options – Derrick Rose $5,800, Seth Curry $5,300, Tony Parker $4,000
DeMar DeRozan ($8,600) – Over the course of the last four games, DeRozan has attempted 99 shots, which is a whopping 24.8 shots per game. That type of volume alone for a position which is thin tonight, as it is one most nights, makes him a strong consideration. Another plus is that he faces off against Orlando, who has given up the sixth most (47.3) fantasy points per game in their last 10 and fifth most (49.2) in their last five. The Magic also come into this contest ranked 21st in defense rating. If you decide to go with a balanced roster construction this evening, I think DeRozan makes a lot of sense.
Tony Allen ($4,000) – Over his last six games, Allen has averaged 28.7 minutes, 9.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, two assists, one steal and 22.5 fantasy points per game. He has not scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in any contest during that stretch. Over his last 10 games, he has exceeded expectations 70 percent of the time by an average of +1.57 points. Tonight’s matchup is one he should excel in as the Kings rank 27th in defense rating and also give up the most fantasy points per game this season to the position.
Other Options – Victor Oladipo $6,000, Evan Fournier $5,300
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500) – This position has several top options, but also a lot of questions marks, so Leonard appears to be not only the safest option, but also the one with the most upside. He faces off against the Cavs, who have gone from 23rd in defensive rating for the season to 29th in their last 10 games. They have been generous to small forwards, allowing fantasy point upside and at this price that would be phenomenal.
Other Options – LeBron James $10,300, Gordon Hayward $7,700 (if active and no limitations)
P.J. Tucker ($4,400) – Tucker continues to play over 30 minutes per game for the Raptors as of late and has been pretty efficient, yet remains relatively cheap. The 31-year old has not scored over nine points in any of his last five games, but has managed to average 26.7 fantasy points per game during that stretch, while averaging 8.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals over that span. This is a matchup that bodes well for him, as the Magic are yielding 8.3 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game to opposing small forwards over their last 10 games. In addition, they surrender over 45 fantasy points per game to the position. At this price it would not take much for Tucker to pay off his salary and considering the situation, he should have no trouble doing so.
Other Options – Harrison Barnes $6,300, Terrence Ross $5,000
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400) – Porzingis faces off against a Pistons team that he is not only familiar with, but has fared well against this season. In three meetings against them, he has scored 30, 53.25, 45 fantasy points for an average of 42.8 fantasy points per game. He has played well as of late, eclipsing 37 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, including two 45+ fantasy point outings. The Pistons have allowed the most 3-pointers per game (2.5) over their last 10 games to the position, which bodes well for Porzingis, who has attempted 23 shots from beyond the arc in his last five games, despite connecting with just four of them. If Carmelo Anthony sits, this increases Porzingis’ value a notch as he sees an uptick of nearly two percent in usage and a near one point +/- differential. There is a nice floor here, as well as a ceiling in this matchup.
Other Options – DeMarcus Cousins $9,600 (check status), LaMarcus Aldridge $7,000
Zach Randolph ($5,000) – Randolph drew the start on Sunday against the Warriors as Marc Gasol sat with a foot injury and played 29 minutes. He attempted 15 shots, and scored 15 points with five rebounds, three assists, two steals and 29.25 fantasy points. In three games against the Kings this season, Randolph has averaged a healthy 1.21 fantasy points per minute. If Gasol sits again tonight, Randolph should see close to 30 minutes, giving him a nice ceiling in this matchup. When Gasol is off the court, Randolph sees a +3.3 increase in usage. The Kings are giving up 54.2 fantasy points per game over their last five and remain one of the worst defensive rated teams. Randolph is in a good spot and should have a productive evening.
Other Options – Willie Cauley-Stein $5,500, JaMychal Green $4,000 (if Gasol sits)
Rudy Gobert ($8,000) – With Gordon Hayward in question to play tonight, Gobert could be in for a busier evening. He has been playing well as of late, averaging 85 percent from the field in the last two games and scoring at least 26 real point in each of those contests. In addition, he has come down with at least 13 rebounds in each of his last five games. With DeMarcus Cousin potentially out tonight, things can become easier for Gobert in the paint, adding some value to him. He offers both a nice floor and a ceiling in this matchup, and makes for an enticing play in all formats.
Other Options – Anthony Davis $10,200, Nikola Vucevic $7,800, Andre Drummond $7,600
Guillermo Hernangomez ($5,200) – Hernangomez is coming off of a big performance against the Spurs and could carry that momentum over into this contest. He played 36 minutes in that contest and could see upwards of 30 minutes if Carmelo Anthony sits again. The matchup is one that favors him as the Pistons have allowed over 50 fantasy points per game in their last 10 and 57 fantasy points per game in their last five. In three meetings against Detroit this season, he has averaged 1.02 fantasy points per minute (playing limited minutes).
Other Options – Enes Kanter $5,400, Pau Gasol $5,200, Jonas Valanciunas $4,700
Note: Keep a close eye on news prior to lock as this could open up some value plays that were not considered early in the day.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.