WATCH: THREE IN THE KEY – BLAKE GRIFFIN
Happy Tuesday all! We have an eight-game slate tonight and some intriguing options to choose from. There are several ways to consider building lineups this evening, so let’s take a look at some of tonight’s targets.
Chris Paul ($8,400) – There is no doubt that Paul does not look like his normal self as of late, with several underwhelming performances in recent games. However, this is a great matchup to get things right. The Lakers are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards and are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency while playing at the fifth highest pace in the league. They are also allowing 1.17 fantasy points per minute to the position. The last time that CP3 faced off against the Lakers, he went off for 50.3 fantasy points in 30.3 minutes. His price is appealing and the upside is there, making him an enticing tournament option this evening.
Other Options – Giannis Antetokounmpo $9,400 (check status), Goran Dragic $8,100, Mike Conley $7,600
Reggie Jackson ($5,700) – Volatility at its finest, but the matchup does not get much better than this. Jackson faces off against the Nets who are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and play at the fastest pace in the league. They are also yielding the most fantasy points, third most points, second most rebounds, fourth most assists and most steals per game to opposing point guards. Jackson does not see consistent minutes but he’s averaging 25.5 minutes per game in his last six and a fantasy point per minute during that stretch. Assuming he plays 25-28 minutes in this contest, he should have no trouble exceeding expectations.
Other Options – Jordan Clarkson $6,400, Tyler Johnson $5,600, Cory Joseph $5,000
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,600) – While this is not the greatest of values, his price is affordable and the matchup is elite. Caldwell-Pope faces off against the Nets who are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards. As I mentioned above, they are one of the worst as far as defensive efficiency is concerned. KCP plays big minutes for the Pistons, averaging well over 30 minutes per game. He is a streaky shooter, making him a risky option, but he did drop 34.3 fantasy points against the Nets in their last meeting despite shooting 4-of-14 from the field.
Other Options – Seth Curry $5,200, Malcolm Brogdon $5,000
Jimmy Butler ($8,900) – Butler has topped 47 fantasy points in back-to-back games, while attempting 35 shots over that span. With Wade off the court, Butler sees a +4.4 boost in usage rate and a +5.0 increase in +/- differentials. Over the last three seasons (eight games), he has exceeded expectations by an average of 10 points 62.5 percent of the time, averaging 46.19 fantasy points per game against the Raptors. During that stretch, he has topped 55 fantasy points three times and has scored fewer than 30 fantasy points once. The Raptors are far from an easy matchup, but they are surrendering over 40 fantasy points per game to the position. Butler offers plenty of upside and a nice floor, making him an enticing option tonight.
Other Options – Kawhi Leonard $9,800
Shabazz Muhammad ($4,500) – This is not an ideal matchup, but on a night where value seems thin at first glance, I think Muhammad has to be considered. Over his last three games, 27.7 minutes, 18.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 26 fantasy points per game. He has shot the ball well, averaging over 55 percent from the field during that stretch. With the injuries on the Timberwolves, Muhammad should see decent minutes once again.
Other Options – Khris Middleton $6,300, Marcus Morris $5,400
Blake Griffin ($8,000) – Griffin gets a favorable matchup against the Lakers who give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards. They are also ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and play up in pace. Lastly, they are allowing 44.8 rebounds per game to opposing teams, with a -1.2 differential. Like I mentioned with CP3 at the top of the article, Griffin has not looked like himself as of late, but this is a great matchup to turn things around. The Lakers give up the second most points in the paint (47.9), which bodes well for Griffin who is tied 14th in the league, averaging 9.9 points in the paint per game. This price is also reasonable considering the upside that he offers. Aside from being on the second night of a back-to-back, there is not much to dislike here. A potential blowout is also concerning, but the Clippers have not played well as of late as a team.
Other Options – DeMarcus Cousins $9,300, Draymond Green $7,800
James Johnson ($6,300) – Johnson has strung together two consecutive 30+ fantasy point games and is in a good position to do so once again tonight. The Suns are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to power forwards and have allowed over 52 fantasy points per game in their last five to the position. They are 26th in defensive efficiency while playing at a fast pace. Johnson is averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute and should play 30+ minutes tonight, which should put him in a good spot to pay off his salary and then some. With Dion Waiters off the court, Johnson sees nearly a two percent boost in usage. All the signs point towards a productive evening for him in this contest.
Other Options – Julius Randle $6,800, Gorgui Dieng $5,000, Al-Farouq Aminu $4,400, Jon Leuer $4,200
Hassan Whiteside ($8,500) – Tonight is shaping up to be a two center night with all of the options at the position. Whiteside stands out to me for a couple of reasons. First, he typically goes under-owned, which is good for those playing in tournaments. Second, the Heat are competing for a playoff berth, so their starters should play normal minutes in this contest unless we see a blowout. Third, the Suns are yielding the sixth most fantasy points per game to centers this season and the second-most fantasy points per game over their last 10. Whiteside enters this contest with 12 consecutive double-doubles and has topped 45 fantasy points in three of his last four. He offers a steady floor to go with a high ceiling at an affordable price tag.
Marc Gasol ($7,500) – Gasol has been one of the more consistent fantasy producers from the center position this season, averaging over 39 DKFP. He has gone over 48.50 DKFP in two of his last three, and he has a usage rate of 26.10 for the season (meaning he’s very involved on offense). Gasol could go overlooked with a number of good options at the position, but against a Pelicans team that has allowed an average of 50.50 DKFP to the position on the season, I think Gasol is a decent option.
Other Options – Anthony Davis $10,000, Karl-Anthony Towns $9,700, Andre Drummond $7,900, Jusuf Nurkic ($6,900)
Alan Williams ($5,900) – Williams is far more appealing now that he is under $6,000. He has double-doubles in nine of his last 12 games, averaging 13.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 blocks and one steal per game during that stretch. Although he does not play consistent minutes, he is averaging well over a fantasy point per minute and he’s played at least 22 minutes in all but one game over his last 12 (averaging 25.9 during that timeframe). He has displayed his 40+ fantasy point upside and appears to have established a steady 30 fantasy point floor. At this price tag, I will look to get some shares of him.
Other Options – Brook Lopez $6,500, Dirk Nowitzki $6,200, Greg Monroe $5,500
Note: Keep a close eye on news prior to lock as this could open up some value plays that were not considered early in the day.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.