WATCH: ONE ON ONE – CHRIS PAUL & DERRICK ROSE
The NBA rolls on tonight with a five-game slate, so here are my favorite studs and values for tonight’s action. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Mike Conley – MEM at ATL – $7,600- With so much attention on Westbrook and Chris Paul tonight, Conley, who enjoys a matchup against Dennis Schröder and the Hawks, could go relatively overlooked. Conley scored over a DK point per minute (DKPPM) against the Hawks the last time, a game the Hawks dominated in Memphis. He will likely get 35-37 minutes for a Grizzlies team trying to move up and avoid a top 3 playoff matchup.
Dennis Schröder – ATL vs. MEM – $6,400 – Dennis is seventh in the league over the last 10 games in fourth quarter usage, as the Hawks are facing a sagging lane aimed at taking away Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard. This leaves the bulk of the offensive workload on the underpriced Schröder, who has 28% raw usage overall. He just torched the Grizz in Memphis, going for over 40 DK points in less than 30 minutes.
Other Options – Russell Westbrook ($13,000), Chris Paul ($8,800)
Jameer Nelson – DEN vs. LAC – $4,000 – With so many Nuggets out for this game, a projected total sitting above 220 (221.5 right now), you have to consider Nelson if he is starting, even against Chris Paul, though we do not know for sure how the Clippers will set up defensively against the smaller backcourt in Denver. Nelson is lower priced than his backup, Jamal Murray, but has shown he can hit the same raw usage in non-blowout games.
Austin Rivers – LAC at DEN – $3,700 – In January he delivered a 27 DraftKings fantasy point effort in 25 minutes, so Rivers has produced against this team before. With Blake and DeAndre not even traveling to Denver, one could call into question how committed the Clips are to playing Chris Paul 35 minutes. If not, Rivers would soak up some extra minutes and has certainly shown the raw usage in the low 20s to make a solid fantasy number for his low price.
DeMar DeRozan – TOR vs. OKC – $8,300 – Only Russell Westbrook has higher raw usage than DeRozan over the last 10 games of the season, as DeRo has 34% over that span. DD has already posted a 55 DK point game against Victor Oladipo this season and is at home, where he has averaged over 40 DKPPG this season.
Klay Thompson – GSW vs. ORL – $7,000 – On paper the Warriors should wipe the floor with Orlando, and we should see Ian Clark in here early. However, consider that the Warriors have not been an offensive juggernaut of late, ranking 27th in pace-adjusted offensive rating, limiting their turbo gear that creates the blowouts. Against the Sixers last game, Klay turned out a 37 minutes effort with 26% raw usage.
Other Options – Victor Oladipo ($6,500)
Will Barton – DEN vs. LAC – $5,300 – If he starts, I’ll lock him in as he has already posted a fantasy point per minute game against the Clips this season. With Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler both out tonight, Barton should see his usual high 20s% raw usage rate and could score the 35 DK points he would need for tourney value at this price tonight.
J.J. Redick – LAC at DEN – $4,300 – I think he’s a cash game play, as Redick does not have the ceiling to go for 40 to win a GPP for you. However, 30+ minutes in a tremendous matchup and a DKPPM last time these teams played lays the floor for a solid 25-27 DK point outing at a punt-ish price here.
Other Options – Gary Harris ($5,800), Randy Foye ($3,000)
Gordon Hayward – UTA at CLE – $6,900 – This is a slightly discounted price here for Hayward, who has games of 34.9 and 32.8% raw usage in the last two games. He already produced well against Cleveland in Utah, scoring 47.75 DK points in 37 minutes, and the Cavs have the seventh worst pace-adjusted defensive rating over the last seven games.
LeBron James – CLE vs. UTA – $10,400 – Enjoy the Utah influenced dynamic pricing here as James continues to be an elite DK scorer with Kevin Love out. James had 50+ DK fantasy points in Utah and now is home with a solid number and a Cavs’ defense that has been so bad, James has to stay in 37-40 minutes to secure the win.
Other Options – Carmelo Anthony ($8,100)
Caris LeVert – BKN at NYK – $4,000 – The last two games, both with Joe Harris out (he’s out tonight as well), shows 26 and 23 minutes with 29 and 30.75 DK points, the former being against the same Knicks he plays tonight. With Sean Kilpatrick out tonight as well, LeVert should also see more minutes and more possessions.
Joe Johnson – UTA at CLE – $3,900 – If Rodney Hood is out again and Joe starts, I think we can run Iso-Joe out there in cash games, considering his last two games he saw 28 minutes a piece and 21.25 and 27.75 DK points in similar matchups against LAC and DET.
Other Options – Terrence Ross ($4,700), Joe Ingles ($3,900)
Draymond Green – GSW vs. ORL – $8,000 – With the Warriors’ offense scuffling a bit, Green has been more productive, including his 62 DK point performance at home against PHI last time out. The Magic have been bottom 10 in defensive rating over their last seven games as well.
Paul Millsap – ATL vs. MEM – $7,100 – Defenses have been overplaying the inside to stop Millsap and make the shooters beat them. However, ‘Sap got 44 DK points in the win in Memphis a few days ago and is home now with the Hawks playing him 36-39 minutes down the playoff seeding stretch here.
Mo Speights – LAC at DEN – $3,300 – Speights has few boundaries when it comes to shooting the ball, and will likely draw the start in place of the resting frontcourt of Griffin and Jordan. Speights will have to contend with other usage plays in the starting lineup like Paul and Redick but he’s already posted a 27.75 game against Denver this season.
Juancho Hernangomez – DEN vs. LAC – $3,900 – Even if he’s coming off the bench I think he’s a decent option, considering the absence of Chandler and Gallinari and especially so if Kenneth Faried is out tonight as well. Juancho has the three-point shooting to make him a 30 DK point threat here for tourneys.
Other Options – Brandon Bass ($3,000)
Dwight Howard – ATL vs. MEM – $6,100 – He missed the huge win in Memphis, but Howard had success against the Grizzlies last season, scoring 36.33 DKPPG in his last three against Memphis.
Nikola Jokic – DEN vs. LAC – $10,600 – Denver has been running teams over lately, suppressing the minutes and DK totals of Jokic. In his last two 30+ minutes games, he scored 56 DK fantasy points against Charlotte and 60.50 against Chicago. He gets Speights or Bass (or whoever the Clippers throw out there) against him here, it does not matter, he is in a position to crush.
Other Options – Rudy Gobert ($6,800), Nikola Vucevic ($7,300), Brook Lopez ($6,800)
Mason Plumlee – DEN vs. LAC – $5,500 – I will likely go to Plumlee if Faried is announced out, as Plumlee has seamlessly integrated into the Denver rotation. He’s scored over 35 DK points in four of the last five games, three of which landed him more than 30 minutes playing time.
Zaza Pachulia – GSW vs. ORL – $3,900- – He should be closer to 20-23 minutes tonight considering the matchup against Vucevic. Zaza scored 25.25 against Orlando in 20 minutes in late January and had a similar matchup against San Antonio a couple of games ago where he scored 33.50 in 20 minutes.
Other Options – Tristan Thompson ($4,500)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.