Get your week started the right way here on Monday by reaching back, leveraging your balance, and ripping right into this tasty, nine-game slate. Find your core values and some studs tonight on a slate that offers very high game totals for you to exploit. If you have any questions for tonight games, fire away on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Stephen Curry – NO vs. GS – $10,200 – New Orleans is a great target for opposing PGs, the game total is 229.5 and the implied team total for Golden State is 122. Curry’s cost is down to 10.2K, and he has the birthday narrative going for him today, as well, for what that’s worth. He’s the most explosive player in the league and has a plus matchup at home against a team that is bottom five, percentage wise, in opponent 3-pt percentage.
Ricky Rubio – MIN @ PHX – $6,200 – Very inexpensive against one of the worst defenses in the league. Rubio had been running under the radar until his 50-burger against OKC the last time out. The game total is 219.5 and called even by Vegas, which would put Rubio in a very friendly fantasy position here.
Other Options – Goran Dragic (vs. DEN, $6,700), Damian Lillard (@OKC, $9,700), Jrue Holiday (@GS, $8,200)
Shelvin Mack – CLE vs. UTAH – $4,800 – His salary has finally risen up, as people have caught on to his ‘more scoring’ PG ways, but there is still some value left in his price in a solid matchup against Kyrie Irving and the Cavs. Mack has enjoyed 30 DKPPG over his last six games, and 39% True Usage, 23% raw usage since becoming a member of the Jazz. He’s slid into third in the offensive pecking order, just below Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward and ahead of Rodney Hood.
Ray McCallum – MEM @ HOU – $3,000 – He looked really good rolling in off the street against a tough Atlanta Hawks defense. He didn’t start, but he played quite a bit (27 minutes) and there is no loyalty from Memphis to Briante Weber, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Ray get the start for the Grizzlies here in a solid 209 game total.
Other Options – Toney Douglas (@GS, $4,500), Patrick Beverley (vs. MEM, $5,000)
Jimmy Butler – CHI @ TOR – $8,000 – The simple equation is this: Jimmy Butler minus Pau Gasol/Derrick Rose = all the Butler. Butler’s raw usage goes way up when those other two Bulls studs are off the court, and we’ve seen great totals when Butler channels his inner Jordan when it’s left up to him and only him. Toronto sizes up to be a solid matchup for opposing points as well, so as long as Butler is in (and he practiced in full on Sunday), then get him in the lineup.
Zach LaVine – MIN @ PHX – $5,700 – This is a tremendous matchup for LaVine against Devin Booker, and his salary has dipped back below 6K after a couple of low total games in tougher spots for him. He’s solidly third in line behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins and continues to get over 20% raw usage and 36.6% true usage, second behind Ricky Rubio in the latter category.
Other Options – Klay Thompson (vs. NO, $7,100), Devin Booker (vs. MIN, $6,500), Andrew Wiggins (@ PHX, $6,200)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – DET @ WAS – $5,300 – What a great matchup here against the Wizards, who have struggled against wing players all season long. KCP’s minutes are solid gold, getting 38 minutes per game over his last four games and scoring 33 DKPPG over that span.
Wesley Matthews – DAL @ CHA – $4,400 – Mathews had a solid game last time out against the Pacers (33.75) and has a decent matchup here against the Hornets in a 210.5 game total. Matthews runs hot and cold, but will be low owned at a position where most will be buying up tonight.
Kevin Durant – POR vs. OKC – $10,500 – I was initially going to look elsewhere tonight, but the position isn’t ripe with great options below him, so it’s reasonable to put him in the mix with a 220.5 game total and his own strong play recently. Over his last six games, Durant has averaged 54.4 DKPPG and 32% raw usage, three percent more raw usage than Russell Westbrook. The matchup, position-wise, isn’t great, but he’s gotten 1.2 DraftKings points per minutes (DKPPM) against Portland this season and still gets over 30% usage here as well.
Lance Stephenson – MEM @ HOU – $5,500 – Stephenson has been great coming off the bench, grabbing 27-33 minutes and scoring 33 DKPPG over his last four games. In the 24 minutes he played with McCallum against the Hawks, he averaged 1.31 DKPPM. It’s such a small sample size, but does indicate that he is going to be the man on the second unit and with such a good matchup against the Rockets. He’s still a solid play off the bench at his higher salary.
Other Options – Luol Deng (vs. DEN, $6,200), LeBron James (@UTA, $9,900)
Editor’s Note (3:40 PM ET): Gordon Hayward is OUT tonight for the Jazz. He has a 25.9 percent usage rate this season and his absence opens up some opportunities for others to step up. Trey Burke and Rodney Hood both have the highest usage rates this season when Hayward has been off the floor. Hood is particularly interesting as his minutes have stayed relatively high but his usage and fantasy production has dropped considerably in recent weeks. Hood has a 22.4 percent usage rate with Hayward on the floor this year compared to 26.1 percent usage with Hayward on the sidelines.
Joe Johnson – DEN vs. MIA – $5,100 – This is a great matchup here for Joe, who gets a boost if Dwyane Wade misses tonight. Johnson has stepped into Miami and seen 32 minutes per game and 25 DKPPG. If Wade does miss in this positive matchup and solid 203.5 game total, Johnson could have 8x upside, just as he did with his 40+ DK points game in Toronto last time out.
Marcus Morris – DET @ WAS – $5,100 – Morris has solid raw usage (21%) over his last ten games and is averaging 26.2 DKPPG over that span, as well. The Wizards, as mentioned with KCP, have been weak against wings, and Morris, who has enjoyed 35 minutes per game over those same ten games, is in good position to take advantage.
Other Options – Michael Beasley (vs. MEM, $3,000)
JaMychal Green – MEM @ HOU – $6,200 – He had a dud against the Hawks, who are a surprisingly suppressive defensive team over the last 20 games (#1 in defensive rating), so don’t over analyze that game. There’s no rush to hustle Zach Randolph back, so Green should have great minutes in a hugely plus matchup against Houston. Green has averaged 35 DKPPG since Randolph’s been out and given the boost in pace, total and individual matchup here, Green is in good position.
Dirk Nowitzki – DAL @ CLT – $6,600 – Sneaky game here in Charlotte, and Dirk has 40.8 DKPPG over his last four games. It’s a positive matchup for Dirk against Marvin Williams, and he still enjoys near elite raw usage levels (29%), underlining his scoring importance to the team.
Other Options – Gorgui Dieng (@ PHX, $5,800), Draymond Green (vs. NO, $7,800)
Taj Gibson – CHI @ TOR – $4,400 – No Gasol, No Rose and, of course, no Joakim Noah. Gibson is the one that primarily plays center when this happens, and produces 0.90 DKPPM, according to nbawowy, in this situation. All of that adds up to a valuable day for Gibson and also to Bobby Portis, who will get additional time today at 4K.
Ryan Anderson – NO @ GS – $5,400 – Back in December, Boston showed what a perimeter big can do to GS when Olynyk put up 49.5 DKFP, so it wouldn’t surprise to see Anderson play over 30 minutes tonight against the Warriors. In an uptempo game and getting a lot of chances to shoot, especially if Norris Cole is out again, Anderson will be a sneaky play here.
Other Options – Bobby Portis (@ TOR, $4,000), Nikola Mirotic (@TOR, $4,500)
Hassan Whiteside – DEN vs. MIA – $8,200 – This game presents huge upside and great matchup against the Nuggets, who could be weaker on the frontline with Lauvergne and Nurkic questionable tonight. Whiteside has 50 DK point upside in this 203.5 game total and the Nuggets, who have had their shots blocked the most and are top ten in drives to the hoop.
Marcin Gortat – DET vs. WAS – $6,400 – Back-to-back stinkers will have nobody on Gortat tonight in what I have as the third best center matchup of the night against Andre Drummond. Foul trouble in Denver, on the back end of a back-to-back, derailed Gortat in what should have been a plus matchup for him, but he’s home now and can score against the Pistons, who are bottom ten defensively in points in the paint.
Other Options – Karl-Anthony Towns (@ PHX, $7,900), Alex Len (vs. MIN, $7,000)
Andrew Bogut – NO vs. GS – $4,300 – He’s only restrained by the limited minutes he plays. This is the best matchup of the night, and he might see longer minutes with Anthony Davis out there for the Pelicans. Even if he gets his usual 20-22, the matchup puts him in 6x territory.
Enes Kanter – POR vs. OKC – $4,600 – Here we have another explosive points per minute player in a great spot against the leakiest of frontcourts with Portland. Kanter has averaged 30.5 DKPPG over his last three games, all off the bench, and he should get good minutes tonight with the Thunder expected to easily win at home against Portland.