Today’s NBA targets breakdown takes a look at tonight’s games, Saturday March 14th and pinpoints some studs and sleepers you might want to target at each position.
POINT GUARD TARGETS
John Wall vs. SAC ($8,500) – It’s hard to pass up on Curry when he’s cheaper than $10,000, but his game has blowout written all over it. The Wizards game does too, but the spread is almost half of the Warriors and Knicks game. I also like the fact that Wall is $1,100 cheaper and statistically has a better matchup. The Kings surrender 52.1 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, but in recent games they’ve actually been worse as they have allowed 63.2 fantasy points per game in their last five. Something else to consider is that Wall has been playing well as of late. He’s topped 41 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, including two 49.5 fantasy point games.
Other Studs: Stephen Curry $9,600 and Michael Carter-Williams $7,000
Deron Williams at PHI ($5,800) – It was only a couple of games ago that Williams’ salary was over $6,000. Tonight he’s cheaper than that and has a favorable matchup against the Sixers. He’s actually had success against them this season, averaging 38.3 fantasy points per game in their two meetings. The Sixers allow 51.7 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, which is the fourth most allowed by any team. In order to hit value, Williams has to score about 31.9 fantasy points which is something he should have no trouble doing tonight.
Other Values: Alexey Shved $5,500, Ish Smith $5,000, and Ray McCallum $4,600
SHOOTING GUARD TARGETS
Klay Thompson vs. NY ($7,100) – With only a six game slate this evening, Thompson is the best available shooting guards. All the starters for the Warriors rested on Friday night, so I’m expecting them to give it a go tonight. I do recommend that you keep an eye on their statuses heading into the evening given that they have another relative easy matchup. With that said Thompson is on a mini hot streak as he’s top 35 points in back-to-back games and has a great matchup against the dreadful Knicks. However, the spread of this game is 19.5 points, which is concerning because it could mean that the Warriors’ starters don’t play a ton of minutes if the game gets out of reach for the Knicks. He’s always capable of a big game, but is a risky play tonight.
Other Studs: None
Bradley Beal vs. SAC ($5,700) – In a position that is so scarce tonight, Beal becomes appealing to me. First off this is a great matchup as the Kings allow the third most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards (45.8). Secondly, he has scored 27 or more fantasy points in five of his last nine games, including three games that he topped 31 fantasy points. Lastly, this game has the highest over/under of the night. Beal should be able to drain a couple from beyond the arc, as the Kings allow the most three pointers per game to shooting guards. All signs point towards a solid night for Beal.
Other Values: Rodney Stuckey $6,700 and Ben McLemore $4,200
SMALL FORWARD TARGETS
Gordon Hayward vs. DET ($7,600) – Hayward has been playing well in recent games and is the best option at small forward tonight. He’s topped 38 fantasy points in four of his last five games, including three 40+ fantasy point performances. He’s been shooting over 43 percent in his last five games and should continue his streak tonight against the Pistons. With not many high-end options available tonight, Hayward becomes the one to roster.
Other Studs: None
Rodney Hood vs. DET ($3,600) – Hood will start at shooting guards for the Jazz tonight and he’s at a very affordable price. He was dealing with a foot injury, but has now put together two consecutive solid performances and it appears he’s getting back on track. Hood has topped 23 fantasy points in consecutive games and at this price he only needs 19.8 fantasy points, which is something he should be able to do. If you’re looking for a cheap option to plug in so that you can spend money elsewhere, he makes a decent option.
Other values: Jeff Green $5,400, Paul Pierce $4,400, and Omri Casspi $3,200 (if he starts)
POWER FORWARD TARGETS
Greg Monroe at UTA ($7,800) – Both Monroe and Favors make great plays tonight, but usually when two players offer very similar floors and ceilings, I tend to go with the more economical one. I also think that Monroe offers a tad of a higher ceiling than Favors does. Monroe averages 34.7 fantasy points per game, but has topped that in nine of the last 10 games and in eight straight games. He scored 38 fantasy points in his last meeting against the Jazz, so there’s a good chance he continues that streak tonight.
Other Studs: Derrick Favors $8,100, Draymond Green $7,200, and Zach Randolph $7,000 (if active)
Robert Covington vs. BKN ($5,200) – Covington is coming off a big night against the Kings and should be able to carry that momentum over against the Nets tonight. He’s averaging 28 fantasy points in three games against Brooklyn this season. The Nets have surrendered over 50 fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards in their last five. Keep in mind that he makes a better tournament play than cash game because of his inconsistencies.
Other Values: Nerlens Noel $6,800, Brandon Bass $5,200, and Ersan Ilyasova $4,800
DeMarcus Cousins at WAS ($9,500) – Arguably the best play tonight, Boogie is coming off a ridiculous game against the Sixers. He scored 39 points and grabbed 24 rebounds, which was good for 76.5 fantasy points. He has now topped 50 fantasy points in three of five games. His salary is also an incentive considering what he is capable of doing. If you left him out of your lineup last night, don’t make the same mistake tonight.
Other Studs: Rudy Gobert $8,300 (if active), Andre Drummond $8,000, Mark Gasol $7,500
Brook Lopez at PHI ($6,700) – After seeing what Cousins did to the Sixers last night, it’s very difficult not to consider Lopez tonight. The Sixers are allowing 58.7 fantasy points per game in their last five games. Lopez averages 28.7 fantasy points per game for the season, but he has topped 30 fantasy points in eight games of his last 10 games, including two 40+ fantasy point games. He should be able to take advantage of this suspect defense in the paint tonight and get his fourth double-double in the last five games.
Other values: Kelly Olynyk $4,000