The NBA rolls on tonight with an eight-game slate, so here are my favorite studs and values for tonight’s action. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
James Harden – HOU vs. OKC – $12,100 – Pretty simple. Harden, over the last 10 games, has a 34 percent raw usage number, the Rockets have scored 114 points per 100 possessions over that span and they are playing 103 possessions per game. The Thunder, after a strong start, have been mired in the middle of the NBA in defense and the projected game total is 225.
D’Angelo Russell – LAL at POR – $6,000 – Luke Walton has turned a corner in his playing time for Russell, who has averaged 31.2 minutes per game over the last three while Jordan Clarkson and Louis Williams have both fallen below 20 per game. Russell, over this stretch, has pushed his raw usage over 28 percent while scoring 32, 45 and 36 DK points over those games. They get a Portland team fresh off a massive game against the Warriors, and the projected total is a healthy 215.5.
Other Options – Russell Westbrook ($12,300), Jeff Teague ($7,400), Dennis Schröder ($6,600)
Patrick Beverley – HOU vs. OKC – $5,300 – This game is the top game of the night, and Beverley (questionable) has turned in games of 31.25, 29.25, 27.50 and 44.75 over his last four games. He gets a boost because he’ll need to match Russell Westbrook’s minutes and will be right there to take advantage of Westbrook’s 5.3 turnovers per game.
Emmanuel Mudiay – DEN vs. SAS – $4,300 – It is a tough matchup against the Spurs, but Mudiay is getting 22 percent raw usage and 28 minutes per game. Tony Parker is not the toughest part of the Spurs defense, and it is a home game with a projected 213 total.
Other Options – Tony Parker ($4,900)
DeMar DeRozan – TOR vs. UTA – $7,200 – The Boston Celtics showed that you need not fear the Jazz in your own building, and the Jazz factor is already baked into the price of $7.2K here for DeRozan. He is top 10 in raw usage (34.5 percent over last 10 games) and top 10 in drives and free throws from drives for the season, as well as being top 10 in free throws per game overall.
Victor Oladipo – OKC at HOU – $6,000 – Oladipo has come back from injury with two strong efforts, both going mid-30s in minutes played and has taken 16 shots per game in those two outings. If Beverley does negatively impact Westbrook’s shot attempts, the ball will rotate to Oladipo, boosting his value.
Other Options – Devin Booker ($6,300)
Bojan Bogdanovic – BKN at IND – $4,000 – I think Bojan is a tourney play here due to his upside. The game should be fast-paced (218.5 projected game total), and with Jeremy Lin out, we are going to see mid-20s minutes from Bojan. He is getting 21+ percent raw usage, taking 10 shots per game over his last four games.
Seth Curry – DAL vs. PHX – $4,300 – With J.J. Barea out, it has opened up opportunity for Curry, who has averaged 18 percent raw usage over the last 10 games, a 27 percent assist ratio and has scored 24.25 and 25 DK points the last two games. Tonight, he faces Phoenix, which has been the eighth-worst defense over the last t10n games and fifth-fastest over the same span.
Other Options – Kent Bazemore ($4,200), Nick Young ($4,600)
Harrison Barnes – DAL vs. PHX – $7,000 – You might be surprised to know that Barnes has the same raw usage over the past 10 games (28.2 percent) as John Wall. It is quietly become Barnes’ team in Dallas, and even with Dirk Nowitzki back, it has not deterred Barnes from getting his shots, getting 18, 18, 17 and 16 over his last four games.
Kawhi Leonard – SAS at DEN – $8,500 – He had a strong bounce-back game against the Raptors (45.50 DK points) and now gets the Nuggets, who have been the worst team defense over the past 10 games, giving up over 115 points per 100 possessions.
Other Options – Paul George ($8,700)
Trevor Ariza – HOU vs. OKC – $5,800 – Pretty consistent efforts from Ariza lately, getting 39.50, 33.75 and 36 DK points over his last three games. This is due in part to his consistently high minutes total, as Ariza is top 30 in the league over the last 10 games with nearly 35 per game.
Wilson Chandler – DEN vs. SAS – $5,700 – His rotation should steer him away from Kawhi Leonard’s rotation and give Chandler, and his 21.1 percent raw usage rate, a more unfettered chance to score. A tourney play due to volatility, Chandler has scored over 30 DK points in seven of his last 15 games.
Other Options – Danilo Gallinari ($5,500), T.J. Warren ($5,100)
Anthony Davis – NOP vs. ATL – $10,000 – Over the last 10 games, even while the Pelicans have been working Tyreke Evans back into the rotation, Davis has averaged 33.8 percent raw usage and 35 minutes per game. His price has dropped, but his production is still solid, averaging 55.39 DK points over his last seven games.
Paul Millsap – ATL at NOP – $7,400 – After playing 40.52, 37.15 and 46.76 minutes his previous three games, Mike Budenholzer was able to limit Millsap to just a little over 30 minutes in Wednesday night’s game in Orlando, leaving him more available tonight in New Orleans for longer minutes.
Other Options – LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,100), Julius Randle ($7,100)
Derrick Favors – UTA at TOR – $4,900 – An island game for the Jazz might mean closer to the 29 minutes for Favors that we saw against the Celtics, where he scored a fantasy point per minute. The Raptors have had a horrible time defending power forwards, so this might be the last time to get Favors, a $7K player when fully operational, for less than $5K.
Trevor Booker – BKN at IND – $5,600 – Booker bounced back in the revenge game narrative and scored 42.25 against the Jazz. Now, he gets a much weaker Pacers team up front, who just gave up strong performances to both Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris from Detroit.
Other Options – Jon Leuer ($4,800), Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,400)
Myles Turner – IND vs. BKN – $6,800 – The Nets play at a very high pace and have been vulnerable to opposing front courts, giving Turner, coming off 48 and 35.75 DK point games, a great chance at value here with the Pacers carrying an implied 114-point team total.
Brook Lopez – BKN at IND – $6,700 – If the Nets are going to keep this projected 218.5 game close, it’ll take a big game from Lopez, who leads the team with 28.4 percent raw usage over the past 10 games.
Other Options – Andre Drummond ($7,800), Rudy Gobert ($7,300)
Pau Gasol – SAS at DEN – $5,900 – He’s tough to trust because of his minutes — you never know when Popovich will strike down his starters, but Gasol against the weak defensive frontcourt of the Nuggets with a high projected total and all below $6K is tough for me to pass up.
Steven Adams – OKC at HOU – $5,600 – Adams has been super strong lately, with back-to-back 40+ DK point nights. It is not reasonable to assume another 40-burger, but the setting here is good for Adams in that there should be a lot of possessions, a need for some modicum of defense and a high projected game total.
Other Options – Mason Plumlee ($5,900), Dirk Nowitzki ($4,400)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.