Get your Big Wednesday going right with a low-stress, high-blowout, eight-game tonight. Find your core values and some studs tonight in games that might have lower blowout potential. If you have any questions for tonight games, fire away on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.


Looking for more NBA content? Check out these articles:

Levitan’s NBA Leverage
NBA Cheat Sheet
NBA Game Breakdown
NBA Top 5’s


Point Guard

USATSI_9076702_168381090_lowres

Stud

Stephen Curry ($10,700) – With everyone relatively healthy, there’s been nobody on the Warriors dominating like Curry right now. He’s getting to 20DK points before the first quarter is over and making value by the end of the third, which has usually marked the end of the night for him this month. However, when he does go the distance, like he did against the Pacers, he’s getting you huge production.

Chris Paul ($9,700)- Paul has always gotten up and done well against the Hawks, scoring 45 DKPPG over his career. This game is one of the few that forecasts both as a high total, good pace and close game. There will be many people on the game, but Paul is a solid place to go at PG tonight.

Other Options – Russell Westbrook ($10,600), Kemba Walker ($8,800), Isaiah Thomas ($7,800), Kyrie Irving ($6,500)

Value

Trey Burke ($4,400) – No Raul Neto tonight and Alec Burks is out for the season, so that leaves the PG plans right in the lap of high usage Burke, who still shows that usage tendency with Favors and Gobert on the floor with him. In this game against the Hornets, Burke is in a good spot to really knock down value.

UPDATE: Raul Neto will play tonight. This should limit the minutes of Rodney Hood and Trey Burke.

TJ McConnell ($3,200) – Sixers played last night and the Sixers are double-digit dogs to the Pistons in Detroit. That will likely mean more minutes from second shifter McConnell at the point. McConnell is one of the top DK Net Point per 36 minutes players in the league (filters out scoring) and at the near minimum will definitely go way over value if he plays even 20 minutes tonight.

Other Options – Marcus Smart ($5,100), Zach LaVine ($4,500)


Shooting Guard

USATSI_9076611_168381090_lowres

Stud

James Harden ($10,000) – Harden looks around to find himself the only SG over 7K tonight on the slate. Against the Spurs, though, he might still be low owned as the PGs are very attractive at the top tonight. Harden hasn’t played a game against the Spurs without Howard since 2013, but when he did he had back-to-back 50+ DK games against them. Too far back? Not relevant enough? Ok, you got me, but I’m still good with locking in Harden without Howard. I’m out on Harden, though, if Howard plays, so keep an eye on that.

Rodney Hood ($5,900) – It’s come to this. With the feeling that Curry is going to get the production and the Warriors are going to roll the back-to-back fatigued Mavericks, that put Klay Thompson off my grid. And that leaves Hood who, like Trey Burke, will benefit from Neto/Burks’ absences. Hood may also get to enjoy some Jeremy Lin defense as well.

UPDATE: Raul Neto will play tonight. This should limit the minutes of Rodney Hood and Trey Burke.

Other Options – Andrew Wiggins ($6,600), Avery Bradley ($5,800)

Value

Archie Goodwin ($4,800) – Scored 45 DK points last night against the Sixers despite picking up his fifth foul early in the third quarter. He had 30 DK points in the fourth quarter alone, showing off a versatile scoring game that fits well with a team in the tank and without a lot of depth at the guard position. Will be extremely highly owned tonight.

Dion Waiters ($3,900) – With Roberson out, Waiters put 42 minutes on the board, but scored about a half point per minute out there. Of course, when Durant/Westbrook are going bananas, you shouldn’t do more than just clap and point to them when they score, but he has a chance against Zach LaVine “defending” him, which could boost that sagging scoring rate.

Other Options – Nik Stauskas ($3,500), Gary Harris ($4,600)


Small Forward

USATSI_9076513_168381090_lowres

Stud

LeBron James ($9,900) – If the Cavs are truly going to play more uptempo, as Tyronn Lue desires, then it’s going to benefit Kyrie Irving and LeBron. James is a scoring machine right now and likely desperate to prove the coaching move was the right one. A highly motivated King is a very productive King and while they should clear out the Suns, James will be the reason why they do.

Kevin Durant ($9,800) – He and Westbrook are producing 50 burgers together and last night they went to OT, where Durant delivered a 72.50 gem to follow up his 61 point effort the last time out. They may peel it back a little more tonight against Minnesota, but he and LeBron are clearly the top two plays at the top of the SF tonight.

Other Options – Kawhi Leonard ($8,200), Jae Crowder ($6,300)

Value

Jonathan Simmons ($3,100) – Not a lot of value at the position tonight, so we’ll look to possible high bench minute games and matchups and see Simmons against the Rockets, who are terrible against wings, even off the bench. Simmons is a high energy player that can take advantage of these game scripts to make value on a near min salary.

Shabazz Muhammad ($4,700) – I like him better when LaVine isn’t on the floor with him, which isn’t the case tonight and closer to 4K, but this’ll have to do tonight. Bazzy can use a ton of possessions and score really well with that Timberwolves second unit.

Other Options – Thabo Sefolosha ($3,900), Paul Pierce ($3,800)


Power Forward

USATSI_9068937_168381090_lowres

Stud

Paul Millsap ($8,300) – The player on the Hawks to count on for stat-stuffing, Millsap will get a barrage of can’t guard him guys from the Clippers and the Hawks will need a lot out of Millsap to deliver on the game and team implied totals from Vegas. He’s solid for 40-44 DK points with much upside.

Nerlens Noel ($6,400)- No Jahlil Okafor tonight, so that puts Nerls as a primary point of focus for Ish Smith in this game. They had a good combo going last night and Noel did his steals/blocks to put up his 37.75 last night. He’ll be picking and rolling against Andre Drummond and Ersan Ilyasova tonight, which has been a positive event for Pistons’ opponents this season.

Other Options – Kevin Love ($7,100)

Value

Josh Smith ($4,200) – He laid an egg after two solid games, which is the Josh Smith MO. He’ll get some cleanup duty in this game against the Spurs tonight, surely, but even if the game stays close, they trust Josh, so his 22-26 minutes will be pretty secure and his game will always lend itself to some solid peripherals to fill out those minutes.

Richaud Holmes ($3,000) – When Okafor sits, we usually see an uptick for minutes for Holmes, who is min priced. It’s a positive matchup for the Sixers frontcourt so if Holmes gets 20 minutes he’ll make great value.

Other Options – David West ($4,200), Anthony Tolliver ($3,100)


Center

USATSI_9075347_168381090_lowres

Stud

Andre Drummond ($8,500) – Drummond has a tasty matchup against a soft Philly frontcourt that misses a lot of shots. The only issue with Drummond tonight is minutes, as the Sixers may be down after a win last night and then traveling to Detroit.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,100) – Against the Hawks, opposing bigs get plenty of rebounds. They’ve long been weak on the defensive glass and they abandon the offensive glass to get back on defense in transition. DeAndre Jordan is one of the best rebounders in the league and this figures to be a real close game in Atlanta. So that, along with Al Horford being a perimeter-based center so Jordan will not be picking up fouls, makes him a very strong play.

Other Options – Al Horford ($6,800)

Value

Spencer Hawes ($4,600) – Game script would tell us that the Jazz will have to decide between helping Trey Burke with Kemba Walker driving to the hoop or leaving Hawes open outside. After Walker’s 80+ DK funfest the last time, recency bias would point to helping on Walker, keeping Gobert closer to the hoop and leaving Hawes open to make shots.

Aron Baynes ($3,200) – If the game does get out of hand against the Sixers, Baynes has shown the aggression production and the Sixers lack of defense, to enable Baynes to destroy his value here at near minimum salary.

Other Options – Marreese Speights ($3,100), Salah Mejri ($3,800)