After a three game slate on Monday, we have a much better slate tonight with eight games. There is a good amount of fantasy goodness in this slate, so let’s waste no time and jump right into tonight’s targets.
Russell Westbrook ($10,700) – Westbrook has topped 50 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games, including four 60+ fantasy point games. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 6.51 points. This game has the highest over/under of the slate (210) and the OKC has the highest implied point total of the night (110.5). Not like matchup matters for Westbrook, but the Timberwolves surrender the fifth most fantasy points per game to point guards (51.8). They have allowed +1.4 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. Westbrook remains one of the top fantasy options anytime he steps on the court and is always a threat to post a triple-double.
Ricky Rubio ($6,900) – On the opposite side of Westbrook, Ricky Rubio has a shot at a solid game. We know that the Thunder will put up points and play paced up, meaning potentially more opportunity for Rubio. He has topped 37 fantasy points in five of his last nine games, including three 40+ fantasy point games. Opposing point guards average 51.9 fantasy points per game against the Thunder, which is the fourth most allowed by a team. As I mentioned above, this game has the highest total of the slate at 210 points. Rubio is a volatile play, but has the ability to stuff the stat sheet and provides triple-double upside.
Other Options – Michael Carter-Williams $7,500, Brandon Knight $7,300, Kyrie Irving $7,000
Editor’s Note: Brandon Knight is now Doubtful for tonight’s game.
Tuesday Night Targets
Jrue Holiday ($6,000) – Holiday is averaging 32.5 minutes and 38.3 fantasy points per game in his last four games. Tonight he has a great matchup against the Lakers who surrender the most fantasy points per game to point guards. They have allowed +2.9 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. This game has a 202 point over/under and a 2.5 point spread. The Pelicans have an implied point total of 102.25 points. Neither of these defenses is good, so the chance of a blowout is slim. With Anthony Davis questionable for this contest, Holiday can be in for a higher usage rate if Davis’ ends up sitting. Either way, Holiday is in play for this matchup.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,900) – As I mentioned above, neither the Pelicans nor the Lakers play good defense. The Pelicans allow the third most points per game (106), while the Lakers allow the fourth most points per game (105.9). Clarkson has topped 27 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, including three 30+ fantasy point games. In that span, he’s averaging 34 minutes per game and has played at least 33 minutes in all but one game. The Pelicans surrender 50.1 fantasy points per game to point guards. Clarkson should be able to pay off his salary and some tonight.
Other Options – Mario Chalmers $5,900 (if Conley sits), George Hill $5,200
Tyreke Evans ($8,100) – Evans is averaging 41.64 fantasy points 35.8 minutes, 17.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 8.1 assists, and 1.7 steals per game in his last nine games. He fills up the stat sheet just about every night. This is a great matchup for him as the Lakers allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards (43.3). If Anthony Davis sits this one out, Evans can see a minor uptick in usage. Evans is the cheapest of the top shooting guards available this evening, but is my favorite of the bunch. It’s worth noting; he has topped 50 fantasy points three times in the last nine games and has scored over 47 fantasy points in two consecutive matchups.
Other Options – James Harden $9,900, Jimmy Butler $8,400
Lou Williams ($6,400) – Williams’ price has risen $700 from last week and is becoming hard to consider him a pure value play. That being said, he’s still someone that needs to be considered this evening. Williams is a volatile player, so I’d recommend him only in tournaments. For example, he has topped 50 fantasy points two times in the last five games, but also has a 15 fantasy point game in that span. Tonight he has a great matchup against the Pelicans who surrender the most fantasy points per game to shooting guards (45.8). Shooting guards are averaging 22.4 points and 2.9 three pointers per game against the Pelicans. In the month of January, Williams has drained 17 three pointers and is averaging 24.3 points and 37.3 fantasy points per game. Kobe Bryant is questionable for this contest and when he misses, Williams is usually the beneficiary of that.
Other Options – Monta Ellis $6,300, Avery Bradley $5,000, Devin Booker $4,900
Kevin Durant ($9,800) – For the second time in the last 10 games, Durant’s salary has fallen below $10,000 and I’m happy about that. He has scored 50 or more fantasy points in five of his last 10 games and has only scored fewer than 40 fantasy points once in that span. He has grabbed double-digit rebounds in two of his last four games and has three double-doubles in his last 10. Minnesota has allowed +1.4 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Durant is an elite option and any time he dips below $10,000 I try to own some shares. Think of it like getting a good stock at a good price.
Carmelo Anthony ($8,500) – In the month of January, Melo is averaging 43.4 fantasy points, 20.5 points, nine rebounds, and five assists per game. He has topped 40 fantasy points in four straight games and has three double-doubles in that span. Tonight he faces a Celtics team that he lit up for 46 fantasy points against in their last meeting. In that game, he scored 29 points and grabbed 10 boards. Overall the Celtics are a solid defensive team, but do allow the seventh most fantasy points per game to small forwards. They have allowed +1.4 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs.
Other Options – LeBron James $10,000, Paul George $9,100
CHECK OUT MORE NBA CONTENT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
Trevor Ariza ($5,200) – Ariza is a very streaky player and his usage rate isn’t that high, but he does play plenty of minutes and has fared well against the Grizzlies this season. He averages 34 minutes per game and is averaging 30.8 fantasy points per game against the Grizzlies. In the last five games, small forwards are averaging the eighth most fantasy points per game against the Grizzlies (45.8). Based on his volatility, Ariza is a player who I’d only consider in tournaments. He has the upside to 6X his salary, but also offers a low floor.
Other Options – Giannis Antetokounmpo $6,300, Tony Allen $4,900 (is Courtney Lee sits)
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,900) – In the month of January, Porzingis is averaging 30.7 minutes, 31.6 fantasy points, 15.8 points, eight rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game. He topped 35 fantasy points three times in those six games. Tonight he faces a small Celtics front court who he dominated the last time he played against them. In that game he scored 16 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and blocked three shots. That was good for 41.5 fantasy points. The Celtics have surrendered the seventh most fantasy points per game in their last 10 games to opposing power forwards (49.9).
Other Options – Anthony Davis $10,500 (if he plays), Kevin Love $7,400
Zach Randolph ($6,500) – Randolph has scored 39 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games, including two 50+ fantasy point games. He’s averaging 30.5 minutes in that span and has recorded two double-doubles. The Rockets are surrendering the second most fantasy points per game to power forwards (53). They allow 44.5 rebounds per game and have a -1.8 differential. Opposing power forwards average 23.3 points and 12.3 boards against Houston. At this price, Randolph should not have any issue paying off his salary.
Other Options – Ryan Anderson $6,500 (value goes up if Davis sits), Dirk Nowitzki $6,300, Nikola Mirotic $5,800
Marc Gasol ($7,200) – The Rockets surrender 44.5 rebounds per game and have a -1.8 differential. They have allowed +2.9 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. Opposing centers average 48.2 fantasy points, 19.4 points, and 13.8 rebounds per game against Houston. Gasol has fared well against the Rockets this season, averaging 40.8 fantasy points per game in two games. He is one of the few big men who offers triple-double upside. There are plenty of high-end centers in play tonight, but Gasol is the most appealing one due to his price and matchup.
Other Options – Andre Drummond $8,800, Pau Gasol $8,200, Dwight Howard $7,300
Greg Monroe ($6,600) – The Bulls allow the second most rebounds per game to opposing teams (47.1) and the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing centers (51.4). They have allowed +1.7 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. Monroe has scored 30 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games. In that span, he has three double-doubles. One of those was against the Bulls last week. In that game, Monroe scored 13 points and grabbed 12 boards, and ended up with 34 fantasy points. In the last 10 games, Monroe has exceeded value 60 percent of the time by an average of 2.74 points. He needs 33 points to pay off his salary and topped that in his last game against the Bulls.
Other Options – Zaza Pachulia $6,300, Robin Lopez $5,000