Following a 10 game slate on Monday night, we have a five game slate this evening with several of interesting options to choose from. Let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s targets.
Isaiah Thomas ($7,700) – Curry and Wall are both great plays tonight and if you decide to build around them, I don’t blame you. However, I also like Thomas a lot for much cheaper. Thomas has scored 39 or more fantasy points in three of his last five games and has not scored fewer than 33 fantasy points in that span. Tonight he faces off against the Bucks who surrender 49.6 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Despite shooting poorly in his previous contest against the Bucks, he still managed to score 20 points and 25 fantasy points. This game has the second highest over/under of the slate at 208.5 points and just a four point spread.
Other Options – Stephen Curry $11,000, John Wall $10,000
Raul Neto ($3,600) – In the last five games, Neto is averaging 30.8 minutes, 10.8 points, four assists, 2.6 rebounds, and 21.05 fantasy points per game. He’s paid off his salary and some in five straight games. Tonight he will start against the Mavericks who surrender 48.8 fantasy points per game to point guards. With all the injuries to the Jazz backcourt, Neto should continue to see a good amount of playing time. If you’re planning on paying up for one of the five figure salary players this evening, Neto provides plenty of salary cushion and should have no trouble hitting value for a sixth straight game.
Other Options – Michael Carter-Williams $5,900, Goran Dragic $5,400, Patrick Beverly $5,000
James Harden ($10,600) – Harden is questionable for tonight’s game with a hand injury, but it doesn’t appear to be serious, so I’m expecting him to give it a go. Both of these teams play paced up and both are top five in points scored per game. Harden is averaging over 42 fantasy points and 35 minutes per game against the Warriors this season. In the last five games, Harden has topped 52 fantasy points four times, including a 76.75 fantasy point performance. He offers plenty of upside and a safe floor. This contest has the highest over/under of the slate at 230.5 points. The one concern is that the Rockets are a 14.5 point underdog and if this game gets out of control, Harden could see the bench in the fourth quarter. However, in tournaments he’s worth the risk because of the upside he offers. Keep an eye on his status heading into tonight’s contest.
Other Options – Klay Thompson $7,800, Dwyane Wade $6,900
Evan Turner ($5,600) – Turner has been playing well in recent games. He has topped 30 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. In the last 10 games, he has exceeded value 80 percent of the time by an average of 9.51 points. In that span, he’s averaging 27.1 minutes, 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists, one steal, and 30.6 fantasy points per game. Tonight he faces the Bucks that have allowed +2.1 points above expectation to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Labs. In the last five games, the Bucks have surrendered the sixth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards. In his last meeting against the Bucks, Turner scored 36.3 fantasy points in 28 minutes. This game has the second highest point total of the night and just a four point spread.
Other Options – Bradley Beal $6,100, Rodney Hood $6,000, Arron Afflalo $5,300
Carmelo Anthony ($8,400) – Melo has scored 40 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. Tonight he has a favorable matchup against the Wizards who surrender the most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards. The last time he faced the Wizards, Melo scored 54.8 fantasy points. The Wizards play paced up which favors Melo. This matchup has a 207 over/under and the Knicks have an implied point total of 104 points. I’d strongly consider paying up for Melo tonight as he offers plenty of upside and is reasonably priced.
Other Options – Kawhi Leonard $7,600, Gordon Hayward $7,300
Harrison Barnes ($4,700) – This should be a fun game to watch tonight and I’m expecting both teams to run small lineups, which benefits Barnes. He has played over 30 minutes in four straight games and could be in for another 30+ minute game. The Rockets surrender the second most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards. They have allowed +2.6 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per fantasy labs. This contest has the highest over/under of the slate and the Warriors have the highest implied point total of the night. When looking for value plays, I try to get players in high totals that can see a good amount of minutes. Barnes fits that description. The last time he played the Rockets, he scored 21.3 fantasy points in 26.3 minutes played.
Other Options – Trevor Ariza $6,200, Jae Crowder $5,700, Corey Brewer $4,500
Derrick Favors ($7,000) – Favors is still a tad underpriced and offers plenty of upside to go with a safe floor. He has scored 30 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games, including two 40+ fantasy point performances. In that span, he’s averaging 10 rebounds, 14.2 points, 3.2 blocks, and 34.9 fantasy points per game. He faces a Dallas Mavericks team that has allowed +2.1 points above expectation to opposing power forwards, per fantasy labs. This should be a slow paced game which benefits Favors. He should be able to do work in the paint against the Mavs frontcourt.
Other Options – Draymond Green $9,300, LaMarcus Aldridge $7,100
Dirk Nowitzki ($5,800) – To be honest, there aren’t many appealing value plays at power forward this evening. The one that stands the most is Nowitzki at this price. This is the cheapest he’s been in quite some time. Tonight’s matchup against the Jazz isn’t ideal, but the last time he played against them, he scored 36 fantasy points. His ability to shoot the three makes it difficult for the Jazz bigs to defend him on the outside. If you’re looking for an affordable option that should hit value at this position, Nowitzki is your guy. However, I’d recommend paying up for power forward tonight.
Other Options – None
Greg Monroe ($6,700) – Monroe is my top play at center tonight. In the last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 5.02 points. He has scored fewer than 30 fantasy points just once in that span. Tonight he faces the Celtics that give up the fourth most rebounds per game and have a -1.0 differential. Centers are averaging 20.4 points and 14.5 rebounds against the Celtics. Monroe has five double-doubles in the last 10 games and has missed two others by just one rebound. He should be able to do damage under the boards tonight against an undersized frontcourt.
Other Options – Dwight Howard $7,400, Hassan Whiteside $7,000 (check status)
Robin Lopez ($5,100) – Lopez doesn’t offer a lot of upside, but has been doing a good job collecting rebounds as of late. He has recorded double-digit rebounds in three of his last four games. The Wizards surrender 44 rebounds per game and have a -4.0 differential. The last time Lopez faced the Wizards he scored eight points and grabbed eight rebounds. That performance was good for 25 fantasy points. Lopez has played 30+ minutes per game in four straight and should be able to pay off his salary at this price so long as he gets the minutes. If you’re looking for a cheap option at center, you should consider Lopez.
Other Options – Rudy Gobert $6,600, Jared Sullinger $5,200