3 IN THE KEY – NERLENS NOEL
After a healthy 12 game slate on Monday, we have three games on deck for this evening. Of the six teams playing tonight, four are top ten in game pace, while only one team is out of the top 12 in that category. There are some interesting options to choose from, so let’s jump right into it.
Damian Lillard ($8,800) – The Blazers game was postponed last night due to court conditions, which gave Lillard an extra night of rest. He faces off against the Thunder in what should be an up-tempo contest with plenty of scoring. Both teams have posted at least 90 points in each of their meetings this season. The Thunder come in allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game to point guards over their last ten, and they rank 21st in defensive efficiency during that stretch. In addition, Dame has fared well against the Thunder this season, averaging 43.9 fantasy points per game against them. He has also been playing well as of late, eclipsing 43 fantasy points in five consecutive games, including two 50+ fantasy point games.
Other Options – Russell Westbrook ($13,400), John Wall $11,000
Tyler Ulis ($4,600) – It is difficult to overlook what Ulis has done over the past four games, averaging 12.8 points, 6.8 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 28.2 fantasy points per game. He has played at least 21 minutes in three straight and has topped 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games. His price has increased, but it is still very affordable considering his strong play and involvement in the offense. Ulis will likely be highly owned, but he does give you that salary cushion to pay up for one of the top players on the slate.
Other Options – Jordan Clarkson $5,200, Yogi Ferrell $5,000
Bradley Beal ($7,800) – I am OK with either Beal or C.J. McCollum tonight, but I’m giving Beal the slight edge. He erupted for 50.5 fantasy points against Phoenix the last time he faced them. The Suns play at the third fastest pace and are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency this season. They yield over 40 fantasy points per game to shooting guards and have allowed +1.55 points above expectation to the position. Beal has scored 40 or more fantasy points in four of his last six games, including a 50 burger late in February. This is a great spot for him, and it’s a matchup he should exploit.
Other Options – C.J. McCollum $7,100, Seth Curry $6,600
T.J. Warren ($5,900) – The small forward position is where we can look to save some salary tonight, as everyone at this position is less the $6,500. Warren has been playing well recently, averaging 17 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, two blocks, one steal and 30.3 fantasy points per game over his last six. He gets a decent matchup against the Wizards, who surrender the ninth most fantasy points per game to small forwards and have allowed +1.07 points above expectation to the position. The Suns are out of the playoff picture, so we should continue to see their young players getting plenty of run, which includes Warren.
Other Options – Maurice Harkless $5,300, Bojan Bogdanovic $4,900
Julius Randle ($6,100) – Power forward is another position where no player is more than $6,500. Randle does not have the best matchup tonight, but I think he is just too cheap for the upside he offers. He averages 1.1 fantasy points per minute, and he’s displayed 60+ fantasy point upside. Over the last 10 games, the Mavs are yielding 48 fantasy points per game to power forwards. They also surrender 44.2 rebounds per game with a -5.8 differential (worst in the NBA), so it’s not all bad for Randle.
Other Options – Markieff Morris $6,500, Dirk Nowitzki $5,800, Marquese Chriss $4,700
Alan Williams ($6,700) – Just a couple of weeks ago Williams was the minimum price, but that has changed because Williams has been rolling. He has three consecutive double doubles and four in the last five games. In his last six games, he has averaged 14.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 1.2 steals and 33.9 fantasy points per game. He has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games and appears to have solidified his role. The Wizards have allowed +2.57 points above expectation to opposing centers and are giving up over 50 fantasy points per game to the position over their last 10.
Other Options – Jusuf Nurkic $6,800
Enes Kanter ($5,700) – Kanter has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games, but he still remains under $6,000. He has not been playing huge minutes, but is averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute so he doesn’t need to see a ton of court time to return value. The Blazers rank 27th in defensive efficiency and play up in pace. They also surrender 44.4 rebounds per game with a -1.1 differential and have allowed +3.82 points above expectation to opposing centers. Due to the lack of minutes, I think Kanter is better suited for tournaments, but considering the small slate, I would not mind rolling him out in all formats.
Other Options – Nerlens Noel $5,600, Marcin Gortat $5,200, Steven Adams $5,200
Note: Keep a close eye on news prior to lock as this could open up some value plays that were not considered early in the day.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.