WATCH: 3 IN THE KEY – FRANK KAMINSKY
We have a six-game slate tonight with some intriguing options at hand, so let’s waste no time and jump right into it. Below I’ll go over some players to consider this evening.
Mike Conley ($7,900) – Conley gets a good matchup tonight against the Suns who rank 27th in defensive efficiency. They also give up the eighth most fantasy points and most points per game to point guards, while allowing 3.15 points above expectation to the position. The Suns are also playing at the third fastest pace this season, creating extra touch opportunities for opposing players. Conley had a huge game against Phoenix at the end of January, scoring 65.5 fantasy points. He has topped 44 fantasy points in three of his last five games and comes at a favorable price in a great spot.
Other Options – John Wall $10,300, Stephen Curry $9,500, Kemba Walker $8,300
Reggie Jackson ($5,300) – Jackson’s minutes have been spotty which has impacted his production in recent games. However, this is a favorable situation, and he comes at a very reasonable price. Portland ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and give up the third most points per game to opposing point guards. I would only roster him in tournaments due to the volatility, but at this price tag, he can easily smash value if he plays his normal allotment of minutes.
Other Options – George Hill $6,400, Rajon Rondo $5,400
Dwyane Wade ($7,500) – There are not many shooting guards that can stuff the stat sheet, but Wade is certainly one that can. In the month of February, he is averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, while eclipsing 40 fantasy points three times during that stretch and not scoring fewer than 34 fantasy points once. He gets a nice matchup against the Nuggets who are dead last in defensive efficiency and give up the most fantasy points per game to shooting guards. In addition, Denver has allowed 3.07 points above expectation to the position. Wade has exceeded expectations eight of his last 10 games by an average of 7.93 points. All the boxes are checking off for Wade tonight, making him a strong play in all formats.
Other Options – Nicolas Batum $7,500, Bradley Beal $7,200, Klay Thompson $6,800
Tony Allen ($4,800) – Allen is not a lock to get huge minutes, but he has played at least 25 minutes in four of his last five games. During that stretch, he is averaging 2.5 steals per game and has five steals in back-to-back games. The reason I point that out is because the Suns are the third worst in the NBA in turnovers, averaging 15.8 turnovers per game. Allen should have some steal opportunities in this contest and also faces a weak defense, as the Suns rank 27th in defensive efficiency. He has topped 26 fantasy points in five of his last six games, including two 30+ fantasy point outings. He offers 6-7X upside and will likely go overlooked, making him an intriguing tournament option.
Other Options – Gary Harris $5,900
Kevin Durant ($9,700) – Going back to 2014, Durant is averaging 48.5 fantasy points per game and has exceeded expectations by an average of 1.94 points on the second night of a back-to-back on the road. Therefore, the fact that he is on a second night of a back-to-back is not as concerning as it would be for other players. This is a favorable matchup for Durant as the Wizards are giving up the sixth most fantasy points, sixth most points, most assists and eighth most three-pointers per game to small forwards. Both of these teams are in the top 12 in game pace, which means we will likely see an up-tempo matchup. Durant has topped 50 fantasy points in three of his last four games, and at under $10,000, he is very appealing.
Other Options – Jimmy Butler $9,300, Gordon Hayward $7,700
Maurice Harkless ($4,700) – It is difficult to ignore a player who is averaging 32.8 minutes per game over his last four at this price tag. During that stretch, Harkless is averaging 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game, while scoring at least 29 fantasy points in three of those games. The matchup is not ideal, but as long as he continues to get the minutes, the production should follow, and at this price it won’t take much to reach value.
Other Options – Otto Porter $6,000 (tournament), Marcus Morris $5,900
Draymond Green ($7,400) – Green is coming off of a nice game against the Sixers and gets a good matchup against the Wizards who are yielding the fifth most fantasy points per game to power forwards. It was his best performance since February 10th. Washington is also allowing 2.88 points above expectation to power forwards. He looked good in last night’s game and could carry that momentum over to this contest. If you are going balanced, he makes sense, as he offers big upside at a very reasonable price.
Julius Randle ($5,700) – I have my reservations with Randle due to the uncertainty of his minutes, but over the last three games, he has played at least 28 minutes in each contest. During that stretch, he has averaged 10.7 points, 11 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 0.7 steals per game, while scoring 30+ fantasy points twice. The Hornets have struggled against power forwards in recent games, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position in their last 10. They are also struggling on the boards, allowing the fifth most rebounds per game to opposing teams. Randle should dominate the glass in this contest and has a good shot for double-digit rebounds for the fourth consecutive game.
Other Options – Al-Farouq Aminu $5,000, Nikola Mirotic $5,000
Andre Drummond ($8,200) – Drummond is a walking double-double and gets a favorable matchup against Portland who is ranked 26th in defensive efficiency. He is currently seventh in the league in points in the paint, averaging 11.7, and the Trail Blazers have surrendered the third most points in the paint over their last three games. They are also yielding the 10th most rebounds per game with a -1.4 differential. Drummond offers plenty of upside at this price tag and could go overlooked.
Other Options – Nikola Jokic $8,900, Marc Gasol $7,600, Rudy Gobert $7,300
Enes Kanter ($4,900) – I am fully aware that this matchup is far from ideal, but when you get a player with Kanter’s upside at this price tag, you have to consider him. He was as high as $7,000 prior to the injury, so this is a huge discount. He returned from the forearm injury just two games ago and logged 24 minutes in his last contest. Despite the low minutes, he managed to score 36.75 fantasy points. He averages over a fantasy point per minute and could play anywhere between 22-26 minutes, which should be enough time to get him to value, while offering the upside to smash it.
Other Options – Jusuf Nurkic $5,800, Zaza Pachulia $3,900
Note: Keep a close eye on news prior to lock as this could open up some value plays that were not considered early in the day.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.