The last Tuesday of the month tips off with a five game slate and several of interesting options to choose from. Let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s targets.
John Wall ($9,300) – There are several options to choose from at the high-end point guard position and truth be told, I’m ok with the top four point guards on the slate. Wall, however, is my favorite of the bunch. This game should be paced up and based on the line, it’s expected to be a high scoring contest as it has a 213.5 over/under. Being that it only has a five point spread, a blowout is unlikely. Aside from his last game against the Heat, Wall topped 40 fantasy points in nine consecutive games and that included six 50+ fantasy point games (two 60+). The floor is high and so is the ceiling for Wall. The Pelicans have allowed +1.9 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. They also surrender the fifth most points per game to opponents. The last time that Wall played against the Pelicans he put up a 50 burger.
Rajon Rondo ($8,600) – Rondo has flirted with a triple-double in his last three games. He is averaging 15 points, 13.3 assists, and 8.7 rebound in that span. He has topped 44 fantasy points in five consecutive games, including two 50+ and one 60+ fantasy point games. Tonight he faces the Nuggets who surrender the seventh most fantasy points per game and have allowed +2.8 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. Rondo is dealing with a toe injury but is listed as probable for tonight’s contest. Keep an eye on his status prior to lineups locking, but he should be good to go. There’s no line out for this game, but I’m anticipating a pretty high one as this should be a paced up game. The over/under in this game is 222.5 points and just a 1.5 point spread. This game is filled with fantasy goodness and Rondo is one of the top options in it. The last time these two teams played, Rondo was one assists away from a triple-double and scored 61.5 fantasy points.
Other Options – Damian Lillard $9,600, Jrue Holiday $7,400
Darren Collison ($4,900) – Collison has played well in his last five games. He has topped 26 fantasy points in four of his last five games, including two 30+ fantasy point games. He continues to see plenty of minutes off the bench and that should not stop tonight. In his last five games, he’s averaging 27.8 minutes, 18.8 points, and 28.2 fantasy points per game. As I mentioned above, the Nuggets don’t defense the point guard position that well and this should be a paced up contest. He scored 26.5 fantasy points the last time he faced the Nuggets. Collison needs 29.4 fantasy points to 6x his salary, this is something he’s very capable of doing.
Other Options – Brandon Jennings $4,600, Shelvin Mack $3,600
James Harden ($10,400) – Harden is one of the best players on the board today as far as DFS is concerned. He has topped 52 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. In that span, he has one 75+ fantasy point game and three 60+ fantasy point games. Tonight’s matchup isn’t ideal as the Jazz play at a slow pace and are a solid defensive team, but Harden’s upside can’t be ignored. He’s averaging 49.1 fantasy points per game in two games against the Jazz this season. I’d be more inclined to use in him tournaments than in cash games, but wouldn’t blame you if you play him in both. He offers a very high floor and tremendous upside anytime he’s on the court.
Other Options – C.J. McCollum $7,200, Victor Oladipo $6,700
Small Slate Stars
Gary Harris ($4,700) – Harris has been playing a ton of minutes in recent games and that has converted into fantasy production. In the last seven games, he’s averaging 38.7 minutes, 11 points, 1.9 steals, 3.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 22.6 fantasy points per game. He has paid off his salary in four consecutive games. He faces off against the Kings who surrender the most fantasy points per game and have allowed +3.8 points above expectation to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Labs. Harris scored 28.5 fantasy points in his last meeting against the Nuggets. This game has the highest over/under of the slate at 222.5 points and only a 1.5 point spread.
Other Options – Will Barton $5,800, Evan Fournier $5,800
Gordon Hayward ($7,000) – The small forward position tonight is not that exciting. Hayward is the most appealing option of the high-end players as he draws a good matchup and has been playing well. The Rockets surrender the second most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards. They have allowed +2.2 points above expectation to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Hayward offers a consistent 30 point floor and has displayed his 45 fantasy point upside on numerous occasions this season. The Rockets play paced up, which bodes well for Hayward. He is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in two games against the Rockets this season. Despite being the lowest total of the slate, this game still has a 202.5 over/under and the Jazz have an implied point total of 103.75.
Other Options – Danilo Gallinari $7,100, Rudy Gay $6,700
Omni Casspi ($5,000) – Casspi has missed the last couple of games after having his wisdom teeth removed. He was able to practice on Monday and is expected to be back in the starting lineup tonight. Casspi should play his normal minutes (25-30 minutes per game) in potential high scoring game. The Nuggets surrender 40.6 fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards. In a position that is very weak tonight, Casspi is in a good spot at a low price. He should be able to pay off his salary and some in this contest. Make sure he’s starting prior to finalizing your lineups.
Other Options – Joe Johnson $5,000
Anthony Davis ($10,200) – Davis nearly scored 100 fantasy points in his last game. The chances of that happening against are very slim, but that did show how high of a ceiling he has. He has scored 50 or more fantasy points in five of his last 10 games and has five double-doubles in that span. Fortunately, he’s been able to stay on the court and play over 30 minutes in each of those games. Davis fills up the stat sheet on a nightly basis and has a good matchup ahead of him. The Wizards surrender 44.7 rebounds per game and have a -4.7 differential. Since returning from the All-Star break, Davis has not scored fewer than 51 fantasy points in a game. This matchup has the second highest over/under of the slate at 213.5 points and just a five point spread.
Other Options – DeMarcus Cousins $11,200 (check status), Derrick Favors $7,300
Aaron Gordon ($6,300) – Gordon has played very well as of late and should continue that streak tonight. He has double-digit rebounds in five consecutive games and in seven of his last nine. He also has five double-doubles in his last nine games. Gordon has topped 30 fantasy points in five straight games and in seven of the last nine. Per Fantasy Lab, in his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by 7.12 points. Tonight he has a favorable matchup against the Sixers who have allowed +1.5 points above expectation to opposing power forwards. They surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game to power forwards. In addition, they give up 45.8 rebounds per game and have a -4.1 differential. Needless to say, this is a great spot for Gordon to have another nice game. I’m expecting his double-digit rebound streak to continue.
Other Options – Thaddeus Young $6,800, Nerlens Noel $6,500
Nikola Vucevic ($7,400) – Vucevic has four consecutive double-doubles and is in a good spot to make it a fifth. The Sixers give up 45.8 rebounds per game and have a -4.1 differential. They surrender the second most fantasy points per game and have allowed +1.6 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. Centers average 21.4 points and 15.3 rebounds per game against the Sixers. Vucevic has topped 45 points in three of his last four games. He scored 36.8 fantasy points in 36.5 minutes against the Sixers in their last meeting. He offers a steady floor and a good amount of upside. He’ll be someone I’ll be plugging into my lineups this evening.
Other Options – Brook Lopez $7,500, Dwight Howard $7,200
Marcin Gortat ($6,600) – Gortat has the best matchup of all big men as the Pelicans allow the most fantasy points per game to centers. They have allowed +1.2 points above expectation to opposing centers, per Fantasy Labs. In his last 10 games, Gortat has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 4.46 points. In that span, he is averaging 15 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 34.5 fantasy points per game; and also has seven double-doubles. Gortat should provide a good return on investment this evening. He’s consistent and also offers decent upside. Give him a go.
Other Options – Rudy Gobert $6,800, Mason Plumlee $4,500