Today’s NBA targets breakdown takes a look at tonight’s games, Saturday February 21st and pinpoints some studs and sleepers you might want to target at each position.
POINT GUARD TARGETS
Russell Westbrook at CHA ($10,600) – With the news that Kevin Durant is out today, Westbrook becomes a must start. Earlier this month, when Durant missed two games, Westbrook scored more than 63 fantasy points in each of those games. The spread is 4.5 points which mean that Vegas thinks this should be a close game. Therefore, Westbrook should see a ton of minutes and higher usage rate. The price is high, but it’s well worth it.
Other Studs: Chris Paul $9,900, Tyreke Evans $8,200, and Derrick Rose $7,900
Patrick Beverley vs. TOR ($4,300) – If you’re looking for a cheap and likely low owned point guard tonight, Beverley may fit that description. Tonight he faces a Raptors team that likes to shoot the ball, so there’s a chance he logs in a ton of minutes because of the small lineup. The good news is that the Raptors allow 49 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Beverley has scored more than 25 fantasy points in two of the last three games. He has struggled in his last home games, but the game flow of this game and being the first home game since February 8th, could make this a good time for a bounce back game.
Other Values: Kyle Lowry $7,200, Mo Williams $5,000 (if he starts), Mario Chalmers $4,500, and Ray McCallum $3,000
SHOOTING GUARD TARGETS
James Harden vs. TOR ($10,500) – As I mentioned above, this game between the Rockets and Raptors has the second highest over/under of the evening. The one who will likely be doing most of the scoring is yours truly, James Harden. Prior to the All-Star break, Harden scored more than 70 fantasy points in two of the last three games. His yearly average is 49.4 fantasy points, but he’s exceeded that four times in the last 10 games. He should be able to capitalize at home against the Raptors.
Other Studs: Eric Bledsoe $7,900, Jimmy Butler $7,600, Dwayne Wade $7,200, and DeMar DeRozan $7,200
J.J. Redick vs. SAC ($3,800) – Since returning from his three game absence due to back spasms, he has scored more than 23 fantasy points in each game. At his price, he’ll easily exceed value if he continues to produce at that level. In two games against the Kings this season he is averaging almost 21 fantasy points per game. That alone should be sufficient to hit value. This game has the highest over/under of the evening, so points are expected to be scored. Reddick makes a great value play and I expect a 20 point floor tonight.
Other Values: Jamal Crawford $5,800, Gerald Henderson $5,500, and Ben McLemore $3,800
SMALL FORWARD TARGETS
Rudy Gay at LAC ($7,300) – Gay is the most expensive small forward of the evening, but the good news is he won’t hurt your wallet. The Clippers are the worst defending small forwards. They allow 41.4 fantasy points per game and have been torched in their last five games for 54.9 fantasy points per game. Gay has scored more than 40 fantasy points in three of the last seven games. He’s played well against the Clippers this season averaging 38.5 fantasy points and 23 real points. Fire him up in your lineups with no hesitation.
Other Studs: Josh Smith $6,900
Luol Deng vs. NO ($5,100) – Deng had a solid night against the Knicks on Friday. He filled up the stat sheet and that’s something he can do again this evening since Chris Bosh will not be playing. Deng has scored more than 35 fantasy points in the last two games. The Pelicans allow 39.8 fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards, but have allowed 47.1 fantasy points per game in their last five. You can ride the mini streak Deng is on and even more so now that he should see more offensive opportunities.
Other values: P.J. Tucker $4,700 and Matt Barnes $4,500
POWER FORWARD TARGETS
Pau Gasol vs. PHO ($9,700) – If you want to pay up for Anthony Davis, go ahead. However, I’m ok with saving $1,100 and starting Gasol tonight. He has been playing extremely well all season and should have no trouble against the Suns tonight. Phoenix gives up 44.4 fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards. Gasol has scored more than 50 fantasy points in five of his last nine games. He’s all but guaranteed a double-double. He’s already grabbed 19 boards against the Suns this season, so he should have no trouble under the boards tonight. He’s a top play this evening.
Other Studs: Anthony Davis $10,800
Serge Ibaka at CHA ($6,800) – With no Durant, I really like Ibaka tonight. He’s coming off of a monster game against the Mavericks where he scored 21 real points and grabbed 22 boards. That performance was good for 48.5 fantasy points. The Hornets are allowing 42.4 fantasy points per game to power forwards. The last time these two teams met, Ibaka scored 41.5 fantasy points. He should be in for another nice game.
Other Values: Markieff Morris $6,300, Amir Johnson $4,200, and Patrick Patterson $4,100
DeMarcus Cousins at LAC ($10,600) – If you’re not paying up for Westbrook tonight, you should be spending that money on Cousins. He has been on beast mode in his last two games, where he’s scored more than 57 fantasy points in each one. His stat line in the last two games combined is 59 points, 34 rebounds, 5 blocks, 2 steals, and 8 assists. Not to mention, the last time he played the Clippers he scored 34 points and grabbed 17 boards. That performance was good for 68.7 fantasy points. He is my top play this evening.
Other Studs: DeAndre Jordan $8,400, Al Jefferson $8,000, and Hassan Whiteside $7,600
Jonas Valanciunas at HOU ($4,800) – If you’re considering taking the more economical route at this position, Valanciunas makes a decent tournament option. The concern with him is his minutes per game. They are too unpredictable and inconsistent. When he gets the minutes, he’s effective. The good news is that he’s cheap enough to take that chance. If he plays a ton of minutes, he should be able to exceed value. Houston has been much more vulnerable against opposing centers as of late, allowing 51.2 fantasy points per game in their last 10 games. I don’t mind him in a GPP tonight.
Other values: Joakim Noah $6,900 and Enes Kanter $4,900